The Evening Standard are reporting a new YouGov poll in London for ITV. The topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%.

This represents a hefty 8 point swing in the capital, significantly more than the figures YouGov have been showing nationally (the poll was conducted between the 19th and 21st, so at the same time as the 7 point national lead; a five point national swing compared to an eight point London swing).

So, good news for the Conservatives here, but of course a given the lower national swing a disproportionately large swing here must be being cancelled out by a poor performance somewhere else.


144 Responses to “YouGov shows an 8 point swing to the Conservatives in London”

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  1. @Roland,

    Your too likeable to take seriosuly! grrr…………

  2. DOMESDAY:
    Dan Hannan, in my opinion, would fragment the conservative party and his comments about NHS being a ‘mistake’ wouldn’t go down well.

  3. @NBEALE
    So glad to see you of all people saying what I have already said. Your technical knowledge is on a rather higher level than mine so I am delighted.

  4. Sean Fear/Eoin Clarke

    I agree London does normally out swing UK as a whole. Remember in 2005 Justine Greening won Putney with 6.5% swing for the Tories.

    This seat was called early on in election night, and as a result got many Tories excited……we know what happened then.

    Tories are doing well in Wales/London. They need a big break through in north, not sure we have much evidence of this yet?

  5. 1979? Won’t beat the coverage and excitement of 1997 – Portillo, Hamilton, Mellor, Bottomley etc etc etc.

  6. @COLIN
    Re Boris, he only needs a proper haircut and a suit made during the last 20 years (that fits).

  7. EOIN

    I don’t remember you being as concerned for the slighted English, when the Scot Nats posters here tell us-for the umpteenth time-that this election is of little practical interest to Scots , who view Westminster as an irrelevance to them, and merely the impediment to their total independence from it & the accursed English.

  8. For the Tories to win they are going to need to perform well agaisnt Liberal Democrats….

    I count about 100 seats where it is a straight shoot out between these guys….

    how do they square up agaisnt each other? Does anyone company poll on this….?

    also, for a Tory victory they’ll need to clean up in the east Anglia region and eat into Notts, Derby Leicester,

    In my humble opinion the Welsh vote decides wheter or not Tories take first prize with an outright majority….

  9. @colin

    Who are the english? Where do they live?

    teasing…

    Next time old nat says he aint interested I’ll be manning my hose ready to douse the flames… :)

  10. @ ROLAND
    “Re Boris, he only needs a proper haircut and a suit made during the last 20 years (that fits).”

    Yes -that might do it.

    I must try to stay alive long enough to see him chairing G20-or trying to build an Atlantic Bridge to the Socialist Republic of USA.

  11. When was this poll conducted? The recent scandals with former ministers and foreign flights have had an impact on the polls I imagine, and this might just be the reflection of this.

  12. @ Eoin Clarke

    The Lib Dems have been holding there own ( pretty much) in the polls on 05 result. The Tories are up about 5-7% on 05 GE share of the vote. So it all depends where this extra 5-7% is going to be placed.

    Will it help the Tories against the LD in the south west or is the increase mainly in the CON/LAB marginals.

    Your comments about Wales are interesting. I believe the last poll from Wales showed Tories up about 7-8% and gaining approx 8 seats?

  13. EOIN
    “Who are the english? Where do they live? ”

    They are small elf-like creatures, speaking an anglo saxon dialect, and living in bucolic harmony with nature, centred on underground family groups .

    Their populations are much depleted, and now centred on Mercia & Wessex.

    ;-)

  14. June ’09 Wales went blue, for me it was the biggest story of the Euro election….

    If Wales go blue, we’ll all be blue.

    Labour have regenerated the big northern cities. Capital spending has turned them into quite beautiful cities when compared with frankfurt or Koln or Dusseldorf..

    Leeds, Sheffield, Newscatle, Manchester- I think the voters can visibly see the benefit of new labour…

    Wales- god love them… perpetual unemployment, little regeneration (allbeit Cardiff is rather swish now) But in the valleys, or Brigend etc.. can these poeple vote Labour?

    Mines are history and I predict partisan allignment in wales is also history

  15. How many seats would this bag for the Tories in London..?

  16. Colin

    “They are small elf-like creatures, speaking an anglo saxon dialect”

    Is the dialect called “elfansafety”?

  17. Interesting that this is the first thread I’ve read surmising on who will take over from Cameron.
    My own opinion is that coming over rather well on Have I Got News for You is not a good judge of who should run the country. We love Boris because he’s a buffoon, (albeit a very intelligent one)

  18. @Simon ,

    I’ll do my best to answer

    Labour has close to 50 in London (someone with a more accurate no. would be appreciated)

    I call 20-5 solid…

    I think 25 are up for grabs for the Tories…

    maybe another 15 in midlands..

    5 east england

    5 south west england

    5-10 wales

    thats about 70…

    I am not sure the further north I go- some of the labour majorities are huge…

    I see the tories stagnating on 270 unless the can claw more from liberals to pull them towards 280ish…

    unless there is agame changer I don not see them overturning the big marjorities…

    i’ll take another look at the midlands to see if I can get them another 10 there….

  19. Oops add 6 from the South East to that…

  20. The only polling that surely matters is in the marginals. Scotland, Wales, the North East, simply do not matter for the Tories.

    I would love to see the figures with those three areas removed from polls – it would give a considerably more accurate picture than UNS.

    If London inflates a Tory average, imagine how much those three areas DEFLATE the tory position.

  21. Eoin,

    I have to pick you up on something that you are very very wrong on.

    I am from Leeds, and the City, whilst having money spent on it, has been given the most vulgour ugly skyline by an outrageous over development of high rise ‘luxury’ apartments, that I feel in 10-15 years will look awful.

    Whilst you can’t pin all the blame on Labout for this, it was cheap credit and lax planning laws that have ruined so many beautiful cities by this trend of blocks of apartments. Manchester & Birmingham are nearly as bad.

    I love Leeds, and go back regularly, and I know that 95% of people agree with this point of view.

    Hope this helps.

  22. @ Sue Marsh

    I agree, Boris for London, not for the UK. Can you imagine a joint press conference in the White House with Boris and Barack! Would be amusing to watch at least.

    Talk of replacing DC is crazy. He is the first Tory leader in 15 years not frighten the country….

    DC is very likely to be our next PM. Crazy talk….

  23. At last some heartening poll news for the Tories.

    Tonights YouGov poll should be interesting but if there is going to be any widening of the polls because of the recent goings on at Westminster then we may have to wait until Thursday/Friday YouGov poll.

    The reaction from the ‘Budget’ won’t filter through until Friday/Weekend polls methinks.

    All interesting stuff though.

    :o

  24. EOIN – you seem to know a lot about the nuances of polling. Someone said the other day that if Labour get to 34% it’s almost impossible for the Conservatives to turn things round in their favour again.
    Do you have any idea why this might be or indeed have you heard about this before?

  25. @ OLDNAT
    “Is the dialect called “elfansafety”?

    :-)

  26. Eoin,

    If I may say, your assertions are highly subjective – and greatly generalised. “i think”, “maybe” “if”, “I am not sure”, “unless”, etc, etc.

    Just 16 gains in the south west, the east, and the south east? Not credible, even on a bad night for the Tories.

  27. @Simon

    Well said simon I couldn’t agree more! :o

  28. I wonder what the viewing figures will be for the debates. The first American TV Debates between JFK and Nixon got around 100 million viewers, which was probably around half of the entire US population at the time. Somehow though, i don’t think these debates will get those kinds of figures….

  29. @Sue,

    I aint that knowledgeable on this at all- just very interested…..

    But I do say this, we all secretly think (though none of us dare say it outloud) that 34% would almost certainly keep labour in…

    the whole question is whether or not it is uniform..

    this london poll tonight does not lood good for the uniform swing… it kinda flys in the face of it…

    but even with a patchy 34 labour would be reasonably confident..

    the tories are confined to specific areas (I dont think they like liivng with the other sort) It tends to really mess up their chances of getting power…

    Labs and ibs seem to peacefully co-exist.. I hope this maes some sense…

  30. @John,

    you are right of course except that Labour dont have many seats in these areas… go check outside London labour are pretty barren… I’ll get a figure for you..

  31. @ Eoin

    Thanks for that. I think your estimates are a little conservative for the Tories but time will tell….

    I understand with boundary changes/ by election wins the Tories are realistically starting this election with 214 seats. So add your 80 seats that is 294 plus LD/SNP gains maybe 10-12 ( Evidence Kellner YG).

    With maybe a couple from UUP deal and Sinn Fein not taking seats , Tories largest party just short of majority.

    But crucially for CONS more seats than LIB/LAB combined……

  32. @John

    I may be wrong but I count 24 seats south of Luton (outside London)

    the figure of 24 includes East Anglia (eg.. Norwich etc.)

  33. Increasingly it seems to me that UNITE, Ashcroft, Cash for access, parliamentary freebies and all this other stuff are already factored into voting intentions.

    Voters decided a long time ago that politicians were on the make and the latest scandals change only confirm the existing prejudices.

    If there’s no movement in the polls tonight then I will reach the conclusion that the only events which can significantly shift them are:
    1. The budget
    2. The television debates
    3. The increase profile for the LDs which will inevitably come when the election is called.
    Everything else IMO is a sampling error…

  34. @John

    so to say tories will get 16/24 is a 66% success… there are some safe seats there I could not credit

  35. London Poll
    I think that’s what we are discussing (??)
    The following will be interesting (perhaps it was related in previous version of it)
    size of sample
    demographics
    date of fieldwork
    any deviation from YouGov normal method

    Earlier today AW let slip a possible change of method on ‘likelihood to vote’ from YouGov

  36. Howard

    Also is this a separate poll, or like their previous one, just an aggregation of data from their daily polls.

  37. @SUE MARSH
    As part of the small business work ethic we Tories discuss who leads our party and in the event of failure who might replace them. In the much more corporate Labour atmosphere Browns own cabinet members talk about replacing him. Four times and counting.

  38. @John

    Denham (11% swing required) , Bradshaw (9% swing required), Seabeck (10% swing required), Whitehead (10% swing required)
    Primarolo (155 swing required), Mccarthy (9% swing required)

    I hope you see my reasoning was not completely subjective…

  39. Oldnat – it’s not a weighted aggregation of the Sun data (though YouGov have been doing that for the Evening Standard), this is a seperate poll done for ITN.

  40. @Simon

    yes I can see how you get were your going..

    10 Ulster unionists would walk on water for the Tories, count them as cast iron

  41. @Simon,

    Another one of your points is also very good,

    the Liberals hitherto have been overestimated in their importance…

    there are 30 nationalists

  42. OldNat
    I don’t know -somebody earlier mentioned ‘compared with an earlier regional poll’ but the actual article (see AW’s link) is silent on all that would be interesting except that it claimed influence by Byers and BA strike. So that would need a Monday poll wouldn’t it? Mind you, journalists, etc.

  43. AW and I crossed messsages but we still don’t have confirmation of the other factors I mentioned.

    Note that it’s the Lab vote down that made the change a big one – so maybe it was Byers and BA which is a very interesting development which bears out my original fear. Perhaps Londoners have nothing better to do than commute and watch television.

  44. I’ve posted the 1979, 1987 and 1992 elections on YouTube.

    I’m intending to post 1983 next.

    Thanks to the BBC of course for producing the shows!

  45. @ Ben R

    I agree with your list. May I suggest no 4. Given we are in the phoney war at present . I think when undecided’s are thinking long and hard who to vote for in the final days of the campaign this will have a big impact.

    ” Do I want Gordon Brown as PM for the next 5 years”

    This is not a partisan attack on GB but fact. He is hugely unpopular ( check his approval ratings). I live in a southern English marginal he is just not understood or liked. He does not resenate with a large majority of southern middle class voters.

  46. Good to see so *many* people here who’ve been AWOL lately :-)

    So, London Polling huh:

    2005 GE
    Lab 39 Con 32 LD 22 OTH 7

    April 24th 2009 London GE Poll
    Lab 33 Con 45 LD 16 OTH 6

    March 3rd 2010 London Poll
    Lab 35 Con 39 LD 17 OTH 9

    March 23rd 2010 London Poll
    Lab 31 Con 40 LD 18 OTH 11

    **Swing GE2005 to latest poll

    8% to Conservatives

    **Swing March 3rd poll to latest poll

    2.5% to Conservatives/ 3% to Others

    **Swing April 24th 2009 to latest poll

    3.5% to Others/ Labour down 2%; Conservatives down 5%

  47. @ simon

    I agree that make you mind up time in the last few days will be significant, but I disagree this will exclusive be anti-GB. Instead I think there will tactical voting for and against the two main parties by the supporters of others( still incredibly high) and a squeeze which could benefit the tories in some places and labour in others and the libdems where they are serious opposition to either…

  48. @SIMON

    This is not a partisan attack on GB but fact. He is hugely unpopular ( check his approval ratings). I live in a southern English marginal he is just not understood or liked. He does not resenate with a large majority of southern middle class voters.

    As a canvasser in the Home Counties Simon I 100% agree. This why I am becoming more and more convinced that Labours returning strength is in their old stomping grounds of the north. It sure as hell is not in southern marginals.

  49. Rob Sheffield – that’s useful.

    So unlike the rest of the country Labour has lost 4% since March 3rd, and has even lost 2 % since Labour’s low point of April 2009 when there were 20 % behind nationally according to You Gov. I think I’ll take this poll with some caution until I see some more for London.

  50. Having got back, very slowly, from France where les bleurs beat the English by 2 points (refereed unfairly by a Mr Yooguv – does he know what a scrum is ?), I am still predicting a big win by more than 2 points by les bleus anglais, the tories.
    Actually yesterday’s polls were awful for the Tories; better today in London. If they cannot rise to an average 7% lead by YouGov this week, 10% by the other pollsters then I will have to recalibrate. Remember the received wisdom is that general elections are lost by governments not won by oppositions so if the Tories cannot capitalise in the medium-term on Unite and Labour sleaze, as well as the budget and the baby, they have got a lot of thinking to do.

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