There is a new Opinium poll in the Daily Express with topline figures of CON 37%(-2), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(-1). “Others” remain at a very high 18%.

Looking at the back data of Opinium, they have some rather contrarian results – last autumn their polls would have been showing the lowest Conservative leads, in the last few weeks they have been showing some of the larger Conservatives leads. They do not use any political weighting on their polls, and I suspect this contributes to a higher level of volatility.

Later on tonight we should have our usual YouGov poll in the Sun.


39 Responses to “Opinium Express poll – 37/30/15”

  1. teflon brown STRIKES again

  2. If Other get 18% at the election it will surely be the biggest shock of the night. By a long long way.

    (Oh, and do we have to have that first comment?)

  3. It still shows a trend.

    The gap had stalled but is moving Labours way again.

  4. Anthony

    Does their lack of political weighting mean that they are creating their sample using only demographic data?

  5. “New poll from Opinium / Daily Express:
    C – 37% (-2%)
    Lab – 30% (+2%)
    LD – 15% (-1%)
    1,975 adults were interviewed online between Friday and today.”

    IMHO this is just the Op poll pulling back a little from the previous one with the slightly roguish quality (esp. the 28% labour rating).

    I am more interested now in tonight’s YG tracker as the Byers story caps a 9 day anti-Labour narrative that- with this poll- appears to have had no impact whatsoever on the 7.5/8% range MMA average lead.

    Contrary to Matt I think a Conservative lead of 7% or less is great for Labour at this precise moment of battle and in the context of 4 stories over 9 days.

    Conservatives need 8% or more and at least 39% again pre Budget- so either tonight or tomorrow night.

    That’s irrespective of the soft-erotica pictures of Samzz taken in the late 1990’s, that Dave is so “annoyed” about being published at this specific moment in time !

    With the budget I think all bets are off (no pun intended) for a week till 1-5th April period: IMHO a lot of moving around this Wednesday through next Wednesday which will likely be mostly budget-battle froth.

  6. Oldnat – the implication of the information they’ve given out is that yes, they are only using demographic data to define their sample. I would have expected it to be impossible to get a properly politically representative sample from an online panel in that way – but if they think they can, good luck to them.

  7. 18% for others sounds quite large but it could be something like this:

    UKIP – 5%
    BNP – 4%
    Green – 4%
    SNP – 2%
    PC – 1%
    Others – 2%

  8. This is actually good news for the Conservatives, it shows that they have maintained a 7% lead even against the Labour and Whitehall machines controlled by Mandelson. As soon as the election is called Labour lose the Whitehall machinary (even though according to some reports it has been stuffed with Labour ‘Civil Servants’).

    Some will say that the Conservatives should have been in the lead by double digits, but the problem with that is there would have been only one way (in reality) for opinions to go, and that would have been awkward at the very least for the Conservatives.

    Of course the fact that ‘Others’ are on 18% and the LD’s are on 15% is surprising and could be solely due to the lack of political weighting. If these figures are ‘correct’ though then disaster would loom for the LD’s. It is a pity the ‘Others’ are not defined numerically (Nationalist parties, UKIP, Racist Party, Independants, etc.) because then we could try and factor in the import of each on the marginals.

  9. I won’t jump on the Opinion bandwagon – but this is a really poor poll for the Cons – despite being performed over the weekend with very poor headlines Labour has gained on the Cons. With the Other at 18% it makes me wonder if this could have been worse for the Cons – possible the other parties have benefited from Labour troubles and not the Cons – similar to what happened with the expenses.

    Although, it pains me to say it – I think You Gov will show a 7-8 point lead – anything less after this weekend would be awful for the Cons.

  10. Anthony

    Thanks

    I can think of nothing more depressing than that they turn out to be right, and voters are simply programmable consumers!

  11. @left outside

    I prefer to call him Greased Up Gordon :)

  12. Oh Bill Roy, you are a card!

  13. Teflon Brown, you must be joking. He appears to be most unlucky and much maligned PM we have ever had.

    A month after he took over from Blair we had the worst floods in Britain for 100 years. Remember when he had to cut short his holiday after about 2 days.

    Then there was financial crisis which started in the US and nearly caused the complete collapse of several UK banks. Being in the hotseat having to chair the G20 during the most crucial time to save the worlds financial system from ruin.

    And the MPS’s expense scandal.

    All this together with trying to end the UK’s role in Iraq and increase efforts in Afganistan

    I doubt anyone would have wanted to step into Browns shoes during this time. He had to deal with all the issues, while getting a kicking from the press and constant sniping from the opposition.

    If that is being Teflon coated, I would hate to think what might have happened otherwise.

    The opinion polls reflect that love or hate Brown and this Labour government, a fair minded person might offer them some credit. And also while all these difficult issues are still ongoing, do they really want a novice at the helm. Change can be good, but not at the wrong time.

  14. The Dispatches story will run and run. I find it inexplicable that it will not affect the polls, at least in the short term. On the other hand, over time people might reflect that those at the centre of the storm:
    (a) were not members of the government but backbenchers;
    (b) were not presenting themselves for re-election, and therefore in their final days in the Commons in any event; and
    (c) were all people who agreed with cameron that brown was a liability and a disaster, and that they could do better,
    Actually, on second thoughts, no-one will care about those three points. But they should. As those three factors show that the three in question are not reperentative of those fighting for a fourth Labour term.

    On a separate matter, LD at 15%? Really? Maybe this has something to do with the sample.

  15. Well WMA is 37:31:18 so this poll is about right.

    As I keep trying to explain, unless there is clear evidence of systematic error it is a mistake to compare a poll with the previous poll by that pollster. This gives a completely false idea of a trend when there is a MoE of 3-5 points. Of the 3 Opinium polls we have had, the deviations from WMA have been +1, +3, 0 so there is no real evidence of bias.

    I expect the YouGov will show a 7 point CLead +/-3 as well.

  16. Opinium consistently rate the Lib Dems at around 15% yet everyone else shows figures between 18% and 21%. Can anyone explain such a large difference between them and the other pollsters?

  17. Chris

    **Although, it pains me to say it – I think You Gov will show a 7-8 point lead – anything less after this weekend would be awful for the Cons.**

    I’m beginning to think that the last few days have not damaged Labour after all. On the other thread I predicted a higher Tory lead – but think it will be about 5 % -6% now.

    Is it possible that people are concentrating on who they want in terms of the next Government more than the anitcis of individuals?

  18. I agree with RAF, the Dispatches story is going to run and run, like an open sore for Labour.

    I was sceptical before I watched it, but it beggered belief.

  19. It’s hard to see how a 7% Tory lead, which seems to be more or less the consensus now between most of the pollsters, is good news for the Tories, even without this supposedly bad period for Labour.
    As a Labour supporter, I’m (not so) secretly happy with the present state of play.

  20. I’d be suprised if Tory multiple jobs doesn’t crop up in the next few days – it’s something that’s hit Cameron before over his failure to change his parties approach to this – for me this is exactly the same as the lobbying sham if not worse.

  21. YouGov tonight 38/33/18 (prediction)

  22. Richard O – Wishful thinking on your behalf do you really think it’ll still be talked about after the budget? It’ll be forgotten about by Wednesday – even if guaranteed Cameron brings it up at PMQ’s.

  23. Rob S
    YouGov daily polls are not trackers -are they?

  24. It seems that a swing from Conservative to Others (UKIP) shows up as a swing to Labour instead. How bizarre.

    UKIP might just get a seat with 5%, depending on how well this 5% is concentrated. But the effect on the next parliament will be considerably more than just one seat.

  25. YG delta appears to be back to 4

  26. 36/32/20 YG

  27. 36/32/20 YG

    I have to say I am utterly flabbergasted by this- but in a pleasant way of course.

    Its been a 9 day remorseless onslaught from the media with 4 terrible stories for Labour one-after-the-other.

    Amazing.

  28. AL J

    I think the electorate will regard the “antics of individuals” as the antics of Labour and this, coupled with the Chilcot fiasco and the current strikes will damage Labour’s hopes.

    Back in my day when I supported Labour AL, this would never have happened in the party under the true leaders such as Foot and Kinnock. Labour in terms of integrity and substance are a far cry from that now, hence they have lost decades of support and respect from my. My personal interpretation of course.

    The Tories will win with a small majority, mark my words.

  29. YouGov/Sun: Con 36% (-2%), Lab 32% (+1%), LD 20% (+1%)

    I am very surprised but pleased. Last few days don’t appear to have damaged Labour -there may be a time lag , next few days will tell.
    Julian -I am a chap just teasing :-)

  30. New thread up – for YG today

  31. @George gardinae

    “I think the electorate will regard the “antics of individuals” as the antics of Labour and this, coupled with the Chilcot fiasco and the current strikes will damage Labour’s hopes.”

    Remember the “IMHO” please.

    On the *evidence* of opinion polls from the last week and a half……they quite simply are not.

  32. Breaking News on Sky: Geoff Hoon, Patricia Hewitt and Stephen Byers all suspended from the parliamentary Labour Party. Interesting to see if this has an impact.

  33. Was amazed to hear tonight that LibDems are proposing to cut pensioners heating allowance- apparently Labour had already agreed to cut it but LibDems want to go faster. Apparently the money is to go to pay off the deficit.

  34. George Gardner

    Whilst I appreciate your sentiment I can’t agree with the thrust of your argument. All parties have been adversely affected by their MPs’ behaviour. I suggest people will be concentrating now on the new government.

    If I remember – sleaze tainted the last Tory government but all MPs are now implicated –not just Labour.
    Btw the three have been suspended tonight from the Parliamentary Labour Party. I suggest this move in itself will mitigate any damage done to Labour.
    I really don’t think the Tories will win the GE. I couldn’t have said that a few weeks ago mind!

  35. Wolf

    **Was amazed to hear tonight that LibDems are proposing to cut pensioners heating allowance- apparently Labour had already agreed to cut it but LibDems want to go faster. Apparently the money is to go to pay off the deficit.**

    Please can you tell me where you’ve seen this information. I can’t beleive Labour has decided to reduce or stop the WFA!!

  36. 4 big Labour names sacked……Surely this will give Tories some imputus…
    Predictions for next poll anyone?

  37. nick

    In the suns poll it also asks which party is most sleazy. 60% say they are all as bad as each other.

    So the Tories are unlikely to gain, unless there is more information to come from this.

  38. Hmmm… Lib Dems down at 15?

    It’s almost as if they’re mirroring AR, but boosting others at the expense of the Lib Dems as opposed to the expense of Labour.

  39. The Lib Dem figure is way below the curve and probably due to their methodology. Equally the others firgure is inflated. The lack of weight by previous voting fails to account for the fact that UKIP, BNP and Greens can’t field full slates and so it is impossible for the minor parties to get these votes.

    @ R Huckle

    Dead right. People have already decided all major politicians are sleazy and individual examples are likely to be seen as reasons to despise all politicians not just Labour ones.