ICM show Tory lead dropping to 6
Posted on March 20th, 2010 by Anthony Wells
There is a new ICM poll in tomorrow’s News of the World. Topline figures, with changes from ICM’s previous poll a week ago, are CON 38%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 19%(-1). While we’ve had a couple of ICM polls showing seven point leads recently, six points is the narrowest they have shown since December 2008. Fieldwork was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
There is still a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times to come tonight, plus the possibility of a ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday.
Filed under: ICM, Voting Intention
Gold standard swings leftwards……….. thats the highest they have had labour since 2008
momentum momentum momentum
The media have been really cranking up the attacks on Labour – they must be really confused as to what is going on in the polls.
If Brown is as unpopular as the polls suggest why aren’t their attacks leading to a falling Labour vote?
Looks increasingly bad for the Tories.
I wonder if YouGov will have them hit 35?
The hysterical Tories on PB are now latching onto YouGov having ridiculed it for the past 3 weeks.
No poll is accurate unless it agrees with their poisoned minds !
This is good to see. Now, if we get ComRes on 5 & YG on 4 this weekend, there will be some AR fanatics having a re-think perhaps.
YG 38 ( ? +2) / 31 ( ? -1) / 19 ( ? -1)
Convergence !
you gov has 7 point con lead
38-31
This yougov poll is going to create some interesting disscussion.
YOu gov finally getting into more realsitic territory…
7% seems bang on
ALW – could the negativity of Cameron’s union bashing be turning off the floaters? The polls suggest the public want the government to stay out of industrial disputes.
And this Bank Tax – how is that going to go down with Boris? Civil war? Increasingly looks like populist policy created on the hoof as the polls slide away from them. There really does appear to be no real strategy.
Did YouGov change their weighting recently, Anthony ? If so, how ?
If YouGov is at 7% then my first comment becoms obsolete…
How are the hysterical Tories’ on PB taking the Bank Tax ? Talk about morning, afternoon and evening policy changes.
And cue…. lots of talk about how much better the CON results are in the marginals compared to UNS
Surbiton – YouGov split Labour identifiers in their weighting into those who voted Labour in 2005 (”Loyal Labour”) and those who didn’t (”Disloyal labour”). It was something they had always done in their sampling, so it didn’t actually make any difference to the political make up of the sample, just reduced it’s variation.
That was in mid-February though, no changes since then.
G. Brown gets it wrong (or tells a porky) on defence figures
Unemployment falls again
Which is going to have the most relevance to voters?
@ SURBITON
How are the hysterical Tories’ on PB taking the Bank Tax ? Talk about morning, afternoon and evening policy changes.
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I got moderated for similar comments early this morning
Interesting Poll
GB has had terrible week, with defence spending and the BA strike issue,
Labour then goes up 1% and Tories down 2%
There can be no spinning this , as anything other than a bad poll for the Tories. But it seems the worse week GB and Labour have the better poll for labour. I don,t understand it ?
ICM & YG showing virtually the same Tory lead!!
@ ALW
If YouGov is at 7% then my first comment becoms obsolete…
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YG are at 4. I think EOIN meant YG are within +/- 3 of the average of recent polls, once this ICM poll is included (ie average is ~7)
@Amber Star
No yougov are at 7. Anthony has posted it
@Correct Amber!
6.5/7.5%
pretty much what we have agreed for a week
where does that leave the election result? which party ends up with more seats?
You might need those 5 Sinn Féiners yet…….
@ EOIN & ROB HIST
Okay – & I now see that YG has actually moved to 7 for Sunday’s poll.
All move to new thread again
On the basis of both these polls I believe Brown would remain in office in the immediate aftermath of the election and have a fair chance of being able to continue with a minority Labour administration.
I have never read one criticism of ICM’s reputation ever by any poster on this site.
That settles it then?
There was always going to be a fair margin of error in all polls weeks beforehand when no-one has decided yet.
These will fall into line in the coming couple of weeks or so. Weren’t both ICM and YouGov spot-on last time? I think 7% is a fair reflection of the lead currently, which puts us bang into “take a day off on Friday” territory
Remember that YouGov still mis-weight Scots in GB polls. Combine that with rounding to whole numbers and in any YouGov GB poll Labour could easily be -1 while Others could be +1.
I have NO logical reason or FACTS behind me but i still believe that come 5th May all these polls will be shown to be a way out…
The Tories are at least 8-9 % ahead……mock ALL you like..I will save this post and come 6th May myself etc and Mark will be proved right….
YOu gov finally getting into more realsitic territory…
7% seems bang on
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I see.
As soon as YouGov is a little more upbeat for the Conservatives, it’s got it’s methodology right?
That’s either very good sarcasm or one of the more ludicrous of comments.
Here in Manchester most people don’t understand why Cameron is popular at all. 7% lead seems to much to me and anyone I talk to. So it’s a real North South divide for tories, Down South probably lead OF 8 OR 9%, while north of Watford, it’s more like even steven
No story…YG and ICM ,one lead up, one down, both within the margin of error and telling a similar story.Which has largely been the case for the past month,I can never understand why people get so excited about changes of 2 or 3% in poll leads.
Tory supporters will note that they only need 10% – a small swing during the camaign wil seal it.