YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures tonight of CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 20%(+1). Very little change, the Conservative lead continues to float around 4 or 5 points as it did last week. The Liberal Democrat boost from their spring conference still seems to be enduring somewhat.
| 38 | 39 | 10 |
 | 8 Feb | 40 | 38 | 10 | Con +2 |
| 7 Feb | 37 | 42 | 9 | Lab +5 |
| 6 Feb | 41 | 40 | 8 | Con +1 |
| 3 Feb | 39 | 40 | 9 | Lab +1 |
| 2 Feb | 39 | 41 | 8 | Lab +2 |
| 1 Feb | 38 | 40 | 8 | Lab +2 |
| 31 Jan | 39 | 40 | 9 | Lab +1 |
| 30 Jan | 40 | 38 | 10 | Con +2 |
 | 30 Jan | 38 | 36 | 8 | Con +2 |
 | 29 Jan | 37 | 38 | 14 | Lab +1 |
| 27 Jan | 39 | 40 | 8 | Lab +1 |
| 26 Jan | 39 | 40 | 9 | Lab +1 |
| 25 Jan | 38 | 40 | 9 | Lab +2 |
| 24 Jan | 40 | 38 | 9 | Con +2 |
 | 23 Jan | 37 | 40 | 10 | Lab +3 |
 | 23 Jan | 35 | 37 | 11 | Lab +2 |
| 23 Jan | 39 | 40 | 8 | Lab +1 |
 | 23 Jan | 38 | 38 | 12 | Tie |
 | 22 Jan | 37 | 38 | 13 | Lab +1 |
 | 22 Jan | 40 | 35 | 16 | Con +5 |
| 20 Jan | 41 | 36 | 9 | Con +5 |
| 19 Jan | 38 | 38 | 11 | Tie |
| 19 Jan | 41 | 38 | 8 | Con +3 |
| 18 Jan | 40 | 39 | 7 | Con +1 |
| 17 Jan | 39 | 40 | 8 | Lab +1 |
ROB HIST:
I agree with you that when there are some volatility in the polls its more interesting and it is noticeable on here when that does happen.
I’m quite happy to have 5 YouGovs a week. I was thinking how stable their method must be – they don’t even swing around with a MoE of +/-3%
Raf – it isn’t an election campaign yet (or at least, not quite). I shall endeavour to hold the fort
Anthony Wells
Thanks. I don’t expect you to be a YouGov spokesman here, but your input is always valuable.
I’ll leave it by commenting that IF YouGov can’t be bothered to use more accurate weightings for Scotland when they are available, because they don’t think it matters to the GB headline figures, then one wonders how many other areas they also don’t bother to include, and what the cumulative effect of that might be.
Polling isn’t an exact science, but one does hope that pollsters try to be as accurate as possible.
If tonights YG figures (18th) are not different then some serious questions have to be asked. I would imagine that even the staunchest labour supporter would imagine a drop in Labour support tonight after GB had to admit his errors.
@Anthony Wells – “…..and I was desperate to encourage more Labour posters. ”
Now this could really open up a can of worms about weighting….
@Jim Jam – “Alec – as i recall hyou have never claimed top be pro-Labour just very very very sceptical of Cammo and Osborne.” That’s correct, which is why I was even more surprised at the loathing I sometimes seemed to attract.
Bill Roy – Some observations re your comments.
I had imagined a drop in Labour support would be revealed, but perhaps there will be a delay in when it becomes manifest. On the other hand, perhaps the good news on the economy balances things out?
I also imagine that you are implying something amiss with YG’s method? Do you think YG has tampered/affected the figures before they were published?
@ AJL
No, I am a member of the Countryside Alliance, and we are throwing in thousands of canvassers to help the tories.
SORRY ALJ