I’ve been sent a UK poll conducted by RNB Research, an Indian research company. The topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 20% and others on 10%. The only things I know about the methodology was that the fieldwork was conducted between the 4th and 10th March, the sample size was 1800, and that it was filtered to include only those who were likely to vote.
It’s not even clear what method was used to interview them, though my guess it that it will have been a telephone poll. Given the very low response rate to phone polls in this country in the first place, and the antipathy some people feel towards call centres on the sub-continent, I dread to think how many phone calls that 1800 took.
Filed under: Voting Intention
@Roland
I like your style
Go Angus Reid, one night only!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Roland, why so depressed? That vast majority of non YouGov polling is putting the Tories in Majority government territory.
“Any poll has to prove its methodology for doing this before it can be taken seriously.”
I agree, which is why polls all seem to do something different. Could it be that methodologies to not matter a rats whiskers? That its all some funny alchemy and if you play this game of pollsters Russian Roulette with a bit of aplomb then you might get close enough so you can explain it all a way with the good old MOE.
@Roland Haines – I do hope you are joking Roland – think more positive for goodness sake.
Most of the pointers are indicating a halt to the decline in the Tory Lead and in fact a very slow widening back up to an average 10%.
PS — from PB re ARS —-
SNP = 2
PC = 1
UKIP = 5
Green = 2
BNP = 4
Looking at those figures there is little room for labour improvement. A point from BNP perhaps. UKIP at 5% offers some potential for Tories to squeeze out a few points.
That’s if I believed in polls that its ….
It might help to see AR Tory % leads over a few months
Survey End Date Con Lead
2010-03-17…….. 13
2010-03-11…….. 13
2010-02-19…….. 12
2010-02-17…….. 14
2010-02-10…….. 13
2010-01-27…….. 16
2010-01-10…….. 16
2009-12-18…….. 16
2009-12-10…….. 17
2009-11-23…….. 17
2009-10-16…….. 17
Angus Reid
Conservative 39%
Labour 26%
Lib Dem 21%
AR seem totally insistent that Cameron is heading for a substantial majority.
I think it has Labour too low, but i also believe Yougov has them too high.
Just my opinion before the likes of Amber Star tell me Labour are sure to win by a landslide !
Was this poll done before browns lies were exposed on defence spending ?
@BROTHER & SISTER TORIES
I am not suffering from depression or dementia, however I have been brain washed by Labour supporters. You see only YG know whats what and even ICM are now classed as total numpties.
MARK JOHNSON:
“Most of the pointers are indicating a halt to the decline in the Tory Lead and in fact a very slow widening back up to an average 10%.”
The weighted average on this site on the front page is still 7 which includes all the pollsters except the new Indian one.
If you take the average of all the pollsters previous and latest Conservative leads:
Average of all (10) pollsters previous polls shows Conservative lead as 8.3%
Average of all (10) pollsters latest polls shows Conservative lead as 7.6%
Its easy to say ‘most’ by being selective in one’s favour. Its easy to say lead going back towards 10% but there is no sign of that, unless you are looking at a narrower set of data than the rest. You may of course be right all along…
Why not just wait for may 6th ?
tory maj 136 and let the bloodletting begin ,oooh the spectical ,oh and yes GB will still be labour leader…………………………………..yeah right ok !
It does not say a lot for the intellect of theposters on this site than you cannot deploy some lateral thinking.
Trevorsden- Think laterally. I put it to you than you do not believe Labour strength is at 26%
Come on where is red sonia ,the working class warrior ?
I see Bumpy has dropped in (from BP?) to raise the intellectual level of contributions
The Tories are making a mistake targetting UNITE.
In the old days the uinions were more fragmented. Thus, when you picked a fight with one, you could make it seem like you had no issue with other unions.
Does it seem sensible to stigmatise a union of 8 million members?
Of course I suspect many if not a majority of UNITE members are not even Labour voters. Curcially however the majority backed this strike.
Could this be a watershed moment in stigmatising UNITE workers thus pushing them into the arms of labour.
Ironically, in the US endorsements from big unions like ALF-CIO are crucial in determining the outcome of elections.
@ASH
Would that we could all agree that the Conservative party lead is in the order of 7 to 9 points. Based on all polls. We all know enough to realise that this is not accurate to the 6th decimal point, but it would give a reasonable judgement on affairs. However, having established that AR are charlatans and know one but YG has a clue, we are resolved to see Labour as largest single party. Later this pm YG will confirm the Tory lead is insufficient to form a govenment.
@ Roland,
I like your reasoning
The Indians are in line with most other recent polls – it’s the daily YOUGOV who seem to be getting it wrong!
@Eoin,
I am not so sure about your theory on union solidarity. Plenty of members of Unite from sectors unrelated to air travel will no doubt suffer from the effects of the strike along with everyone else. I don’t think the Tories attacking the union for backing the strike is going to cost them the support of all the union’s members. Union membership, especially these days, is more to do with being supported with day to day issues than about a political platform. And there are fewer union members in total than there used to be.
The kind of Unite members who would be angry with the Tories are the kind that will be voting Labour anyway.
And as far as I know, the only elections that the US unions have an influence over are the primaries to select candidates for the Democratic ticket. Very very rarely do they back a Republican.
@EOIN
I bet the bit about a Tory 7 to 9 point lead does’nt float your boat. The rest of it, sarcastic and rubbish might be your scene but it aint gonna happen.
@
Eoin Clarke
I totally disagree. DC attack on Unite I think will resenate with voters in middle England ( ie marginals). It does show how close Labour and Unite are and how GB relies on them for cash. This will focus voters mind on the “bad old days” of the 70′s when Unions brought this country to it’s knees. Labour supporters may use Ashcroft as a example of how the Tories are .in the pocket of a billionaire.But one big difference. Unite actions effect real people ie cancelled flights/holidays. Whatever the right and wrongs of Ashcroft, no one can name a British company with thousands of customers that he is trying to bring to it’s knees.
The biggest problem for GB is, it shows the Labour party is lerching left , this is shown with all the candidates Unite is placing in safe seats.
Remember people are members of Unions for all sorts of reason’s. Alot of the 8 million members will be Tory voters. People join due to insurance schemes etc which protect them. They do not join as a show of loyalty to the Labour party
@Roland,
6.5-8.5% is how i see it.. with rounding up i arrive at ur 7 and 9
DAVID e jONES
What is your evidence that YouGov has it wrong and the others right?
It has not changed its method and as far as I know nor have the others. Why then was its method judged to be correct a year ago and not now?
@EOIN
‘Unite’ haven’t even got 2 million members – the whole Union movement has less than 8 million these days.
@Howard
I’m simply making the point that YouGov are out of line with the majority of other pollsters, that’s all!
Well this election is certainy going to be intresting:
Labour vs. Conservatives
&
YouGov vs. Every Other Polling Organisation
@ Roland Haines
Just picked up your survey, I clearly mix with a better class of voter!
Anyhow thanks for the laugh, funnyest thing all day
Eoin – UNITE …. its been disclosed in the Standard that someone who is fully paid by UNITE is working on the No10 desk related to policy. So as well as donating 11 million and directly subsidising scores of Labour MPs, UNITE is also directly paying for someone to formulate govt policy.
In think this is worth the Tories banking on about for a bit longer yet.
err.. back to polls. Do I think labour could be on 26%? I think I have said before that something like this figure sounds about right to me. Optimimininmmun say 28.
I do not think labour will poll less than 1983 or more than 2005. I think given the expenses and the rise of others the Tories will do well to get more than 41 but all current polls put them wavering around say 38.
MIND THE GAP
Average Tory lead in last 5 non-YouGov polls = 9.6%
Average Tory lead in last 5 YouGov polls = 4.1%
Average Tory lead in last 10 non-YouGov polls = 8.7%
Average Tory lead in last 10 YouGov polls = 4.8%
This includes the latest two polls the Indian RNB and AR. I have been as fair as possible; for example I included the BPIX (2% lead) in non-YouGov when I could have included it in YouGov since it uses YouGov figures; the gap would have been bigger had I done the reverse. The non-YouGov figures are from 6 different polling companies.
The gap is now twice as big for non-YouGov as for YouGov. YouGov is now moving in the opposite direction to the non-YouGov pollsters.
The difference may be pure coincidence but it is a matter of legitimate comment.
I typed a really long reply ot you guys and it got lost grrr….
Right Neil made a good point about unionisation and US politics…
ALF CIO switched to Obama from LCinto at a crucial stage in th eprimaries…. You are right neil though to say that republicans are out of the picture
I stand corrected on UNITE’s 2 million membership… although the hegemonic nature of unite, unison amicus and th ebig mergers we have seen menas that when u attack one union you are in fact now attacking a lot more people
this dispute is less about the modernisation and flexiibility as it was in thatchers age… its more about pay and conditions. People are sympathetic.. post credit crunch it is bankers and the rich we are fed up with not an air hostess
regarding disgruntled BA travellers…. I fly 40 times a year but I aint ever flown BA in MArch lol.. am I a cheapskate?
Could somebody please tell me what middle englanders are? Are they bored housewives who lock their medicine cupboards? thats the image I get…. IS there any polling owrk done on this crew (pardon the pun)?
UNITE have bene in the news for a week but ICM and YOUGOV have labour at 31-32%
@MARCO
Thank you Marco – you have produced the figures to validate my point.
Eoin — you say “post credit crunch it is bankers and the rich we are fed up with not an air hostess”. Fair enough (though thanks to the credit crunch airlines are suffering big losses in demand).
But then you say you have never flown BA …
Do you not see the point? BA cannot afford to carry on as they are … they are being whacked by RyanAir EasyJet and Virgin etc. There may be no (BA) jobs for the Air Hostesses (and Stewards!) if BA do not start getting more competitive.
So it is NOT about pay and conditions – it IS about modernisation and flexibility.
It really is shameful that Brown the Prime Minister has to write to Chilcot to correct his evidence. He could have made his (small and not really valid) point correctly quite comfortably but as ever he has to stretch the truth to match his own self belief. err … how will this affect the polls?
Trevorsden
Very wrong, old chap
It is a flawed busniess model
you cant fly to katmandu and expect to make a profit… seriously it is all about economies of scale…
the merger will imrpove things… and the move toward no frills but they have got to streamline their schedules…
so you see this is less about making some mother of three who wants to get home to her children work longer hours but more about telling ethiopians to make their own way to London….
apologies to any ethiopians im just talking business… your all very welcome in Ireland
Sean Fear
“38% Labour (46:36% in England and Wales).”
Are you sugesting that leaving out Scotland (the largest not-England part of UK) would increase the proportion who would prefer Labour to Conservative in a forced choice?
Another poll showed 75% who agreed that Labour was “tired and faIling” but 19% wanted more of that rather than a Conservative government..
So a winning formula for Labour is “We’re crap, but the other lot is worse: – vote for us.”
but 19% preferred
@Trev I’ve just been on their website…. would make for a marvellous geography lesson
I thought english people just flew to Greece and Spain?
MARCO:
Would you be kind enough to do a similar average for Angus Reid and non-Angus Reid.
Or better still, do an average that excludes Angus Reid and YouGov polls then see which is closer Angus Reid or YouGov.
The way you have done your averages, you have skewed it by including one extreme but excluding the other.
I am about to leave so wasn’t able to provide those averages myself. I would appreciate it if you would.
I have to say I agree with totally with Simon (5-51 pm) . People do fear the Unions and the fact they may return to wreck the country like they did mid to late 70′s, virtually running the Govt of the time and indeed the country. As bad a some may say what Maggie did in parts during the 80′s, she had to break the Union stranglehold.
With regard AR figures, I’d like to think they are right but a bit like YOUgov but in reverse, I think they underestimate Labour by around 3/4 points (30 ish) but the Tories I still believe are around the 40% mark.
The other day I alluded to the Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP misspeaking about defence spending. It had not gone unnoticed within the army and now a Tory MP has made it an issue, which will require Mr Brown to write to Chilcot.
My point is, will it have an impact in the polls?
Anthony:
“telling people what the issue they are about to be polled about is will itself bias the sample towards people interested in that subject.”
Not in this case because 100% were interested and maybe 30% at a minimum would be very careful about telling colleagues at work what their true opinions were. Small business owners who thought the ferry should run on a Sunday would be more likely to tell the truth to an anonymous stranger than trust anyone else not to disclose their view.
@ ROLAND
“@BROTHER & SISTER TORIES
I am not suffering from depression or dementia, however I have been brain washed by Labour supporters. You see only YG know whats what and even ICM are now classed as total numpties.”
I hear you brother.
Now look ROLAND, what you have to realise is the reason for your condition-that will allow you to overcome it.
Just a little while ago there were mostly Cons here, basking in the comforting glow of a big lead & that lovely “no more Gordon” feeling”. The occasional Lab supporter tended to be fairly cerebral & an interesting chat -there was no room for tribalists.
Now that big lead has collapsed ( or closed, or disappeared, or whatever) Labour types are all over the shop-mainly triumphalist tribalists. THey don’t chat so much-just wind you up.
So you feel intimidated, they are younger than you, they congratulate you on your humour-all these things are depressing.
So relax, sit back, grit what are left of your teeth , think of England ( & Scotland, Ireland & Wales as well obviously) shut out the barbarian noise & say to yourself over & over again -Cammo will do it.
If it works can you let me know please.
@Dave
A fairly put point………. but
Banks brought this country to its knees
Stockbrokers brought this country to its knees
Buy-to-let landlords brought this country to its knees..
curly sue my favourite air hostess- well lets just say I sleep safely in bad at night knowing that she is unlikely to collapse Britain…..
I had the opportunity to join a union when I taught in England- I declined. I had the opportunity to strike- I declined
I am not a fan of it to be fair,,,,,, kids need taught was my motto….
but would I deny that right to some single mum who is raring a family while trying to hold down a demanding job with BA….. hmmmmmmmm………
Anthony has a new thread up – for today’s AR poll.
The BA strike is the first event for ages that could affect voting intention IMHO. The strikers may not be bringing the UK to its knees, but they do risk destroying BA & voters could see that as a portent of things to come, as well as being upset at the possible demise of the British flag carrier.
I haven’t flown BA for ages because of declining standards without an equivalent decline in fares. BA has become uncompetitive & this strike will make it even less competitive.
@ EOIN CLARK
” People are sympathetic.. post credit crunch it is bankers and the rich we are fed up with not an air hostess”
Absolute nonsense.
People can read the list in the papers-the list of airline pay & conditions rankings.
They ask how come these BA trolley dolleys are getting paid more than their counterparts in any other airline-and are going on strike?
If they are concerned about UK plc they might wonder how BA can continue to make losses, whilst paying top dollar to it’s cabin staff .
No doubt the 80,000 people employed by BA are worrying about their jobs, if the Mile High Coffee Maker Ladies & Lads proceed with this selfish lunacy.
I don’t really see the argument.
YouGov have a slightly different weighting than the others, but have been very accurate in the past. They poll more regularly but are getting very consistent results. Therefore their credibility will come down to this difference in weighting.
The others show a higher Con lead, but include some very well respected pollsters, so surely, taking a line somewhere between the two, say, 6-7 point lead is likely to be closest to the real picture.
FWIW, don’t think the union issue will affect the vote much either way as the vast majority of people just hear “blah blah blah diddly blah blah” whenever they hear anything about politics. Ashcroft, Bullying, Unions – the public are quite canny enough to see it all as posturing and are only really interested in what eaqch party will do for them.
Colin – that was very funny indeed. I might add you to my “funny Tory” list though, so be careful
Dammit, I’m getting the ‘wrong captcha’ error again, and clicking back the text is gone again.
tl;dr – Definitely phone poll, they rang me a few times, though I declined to take the survey.
Copy what you’ve written into the clipboard before you hit submit, that way if you get the captcha wrong or just generally you get a failed load you don’t lose everything!
Generally I have no time for Unions. If they were there purely for the workers, and to fight injustice, then I think thats fine, but the fact that a lot of the current debates are related to internal Union politics and power struggles at the top, is a very poor show. As I said last night, recently Unison had to close its final salary scheme for reasons of affordability. lol.
i am aware of this companies predications it has an
excellent track record in India over Opinion Polls by the name of Chanakya i think… and is regulalry doing polls which are among the most accurate and have also seen there coverages in Indian news channels and newspapers.