There are three new polls out tonight, so far we have ICM and Opinium with YouGov to follow later. Opinium for the Express have topline figures, with changes from a week ago, of CON 39%(+2), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc). Others are presumably still at or around 17%, continuing the very high level of support for “others” that seems to be common amongst the newer online companies, and which seems to also correspond to a lower level of support for Labour.

The second poll for ICM has topline figures with changes from their poll in the Sunday Telegraph of CON 40%(+2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 20%(-1). ICM have others at 9%, so just over half what Opinium have.

Neither polls have massive changes, but both show shift back towards the Conservatives after the recent narrowing. Both were conducted over the weekend, so most of the fieldwork would have been conducted prior to both Nick Clegg’s speech and the Samantha Cameron interview.


26 Responses to “ICM and Opinium show Conservatives recovering”

  1. YG prediction

    C 38
    L 32
    LD 20

  2. YG prediction

    C 39
    L 33
    LD 19

  3. This is now the third poll in a row that ICM have shown Labour to be 31%

  4. YG prediction

    Whatever you like

  5. Its a pity that most of the fieldwork was done before Clegg’s speech. It will be interesting to see if there is an improvement for the Lib Dems from Yougov.

  6. Presumably Labour do have more to come in the official election campaign, it’d be very bad news for them if that was all their ‘miraculous recovery’ momentum used up.

    Personally not trusting Opinium (which I, also, keep reading as Opium) at all…at least not yet….seem to remember your previous comment on them was something like ‘run by a guy who should be/was/is a professional, but know next to nothing about actual methods’. While there is a good argument for others doing very well in the wake of the expenses scandal, the accuracy of the more established pollsters for the euros seems to quash that pretty firmly in my mind. We shall see.

  7. @ Stephen

    Fair point!

    What are the odds on a Labour closing the gap even more with YG…? Anyone for 2% Tory lead….

  8. I put a YouGov prediction on PoliticalBetting about an hour ago, which was: Con 38%, Lab 32%, LD 17%.

  9. YouGov Prediction;
    C39
    L31
    LD18

    Isn’t it interesting, that the really unpolitical things, like Brown’s Piers Morgan interview, or the wheeling out of the wives, seems to be having more impact on the polls than actual policy!

  10. Were the ICM and other polls to materialise (which is obviously a big if at this stage), this would be great news for the Conservatives.

    Factor in the marginal seat polls as well, and the Tories would get a reasonable majority (even without a favourable marginal seat vote, a lead of 9-11% would secure a reasonable majority).

  11. YouGov:

    CON 37 (nc)
    LAB 32 (-1)
    LD 21 (+4)

  12. I hate to say it, but looks good for the Tories. They seem to be recovering. Even the Youguv, which is much better for Labour, would almost certainly result in at best a minority Tory government.

  13. WMA 38:31:18 so I basically agree with Anthony’s average. I think we can now be clear that the downtrend in the CLead did indeed stop 2 weeks ago, and it really is beginning to look like Dec 08 as I suggested earlier. So I stand by my CLead of 10-15% at the GE.

    Interesting to see what YouGov shows. And I don’t think Brown’s “on and on” will do him much good.

  14. There’s a definite lift in the Lib/Dem share due to coverage of their Spring Conference.

  15. @ AL J

    YouGov:

    CON 37 (nc)
    LAB 32 (-1)
    LD 21 (+4)

    Confirmed as tonight’s YG, yet?

  16. Amber
    That’s right. Am I right to say this YouGov is the most up to date poll and reflects the Lib/Dem spring conference? In the other polls the Tories have increased their share, but YouGov suggests that Libs have taken away votes from Cons and small amount from Labour. This latest development is fascinating ;-)

  17. Lib Dem results are all over the place in all the polls. Nothing to be read into this one.

  18. At no election since 1945 has the combined vote of Liberal and Labour been less than 50%.

    Opinium have it at 44%.

    Opinium are wrong.

  19. why is YouGov showing 5 point gap when ICM and Opinium and 9 and 11 points is YouGov pro Labour

  20. @David in France

    “At no election since 1945 has the combined vote of Liberal and Labour been less than 50%”

    ..and at no point since 1945 has the country been left £800bn in debt or entered a recession with the governent having nothing in the bank to pay for fiscal stumulsous without running up further debt despite 10 years of prior growth.

  21. Lib Dems taking votes from the Tories. ?? Thats why the Cons are at no change then.

  22. Tony M @David in France

    “At no election since 1945 has the combined vote of Liberal and Labour been less than 50%”

    Except in Scotland (1952, I think) Cons once got more than half the votes.

    Do they ever look backand wonder why?

  23. Adrian
    **Lib Dems taking votes from the Tories. ?? Thats why the Cons are at no change then**

    You need to look at all the polls. Tonights polls except YouGov give the Tories a bigger lead than before. YouGov show the Tories at 37% but they did their fieldwork during and after the LibDem spring conference. So the picture shows the Libs taking votes from the Cons.

  24. @John B Dick

    “Cons once got more than half the votes.

    Do they ever look backand wonder why?”

    Well, back then it was the “Unionist Party”, a party independent from the Tories and taking the Tory whip. It was a Scottish party and could portray the Labour Party, centralised in London, as “English”. There was a great play of Empire and Scots’ role in building it, and support from the Protestant areas.

    And least, that’s what I’ve read…

  25. Even by its own standards the Guardian is hilarious tonight:

    “The latest figures call into question recent excitement about a Labour fightback.”

    “Conservative support has been within three points of 40% in all ICM polls since October. Labour support has been within two points of 30% since November.”

    This is the newspaper that headlined with “Tory support crumbing”

    My own prediction:
    Tories 38.5%
    Lab/Lib… impossible to predict – most of the Labour movement is to/from the Liberals, and I think it will be increasingly volatile as the election nears.

    Tory support is 35% guaranteed and 3-6% who might vote Tory but are enticed/repelled in equal measure by the ‘not labour’/’not humanoid’ dichotomy.

  26. Is this the first sign of the Tory recovery from Labours little boom that a lot of people including myself predicted? I think it could be and people now may start taking people like me serious when we say a Tory majority is quite likely as 11 points would give that.

    To be honest Labour are doing everything to stay in power and by fixing the voting system I think it is disgusting that the Tories will more than definately win the higher percentage but may still lose the election.

    Do we really want a governement that feel they have to fix the system so they stay in power. I hope this 11 points gets back up to 15 and 16 points and we wipe Labour off the map.

    Not a good week for Labour will the EU Commission saying Brown needs to do more to cut the deficit, the BA strike caused by Labours major donor, surely The Tories could not actually have the right economic policy to get Britain out of this mess? It certainly looks like most people think they have. Will Brown finally admit he got his only policy wrong and that is the Economy or will he be stubborn and still believe that he is right even though every other expert think otherwise.