YouGov Sunday Times poll – 37/33/17
Sky News are reporting tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times as having topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc). There is clearly no significant change in the voting intention, and YouGov now seem to be showing lead of around 4 or 5 points, down from a week ago when their lead seemed pretty consistent at 6 points.
UPDATE: Looking at the rest of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, the public think that the Conservatives are far more likely to cut spending on frontline public services by 50% to 14%. However, they also think the Conservatives are more likely to increase taxes (by 37% to 26%). The implication is that people think the Conservatives are more likely to actually cut down the deficit… but that this is not necessarily a political plus!
With Samantha Cameron about to join the campaign trail, there was also a question asked whether she or Sarah Brown would make the better Prime Ministerial consort – 29% said Sarah Brown to 25% for Samantha Cameron.
@Derek,
yes I think you might have a point there. The bigger party wil linevitably blame woes on the smaller party.
I’ll tell you a problem emerged in ROI. When the smaller party joined, it was initially applauded. In Libs case it might be welcomed because they are more green say. But when green policies fail, and they do, then all the blame goes on the party with the reputation for being green. Cruel I know but that’s how it went. Fianna Fáil were very smart about it. They put the green party in charge of the environment but a Fianna Fáiler in charge of the budget……
Is there no way of reflecting reality on the ground. These figures, and it appears all the polls assume the same, that “if there was a uniform swing across the country”, these would be the results.
In northern cities, Tories are rare.The LibDems run Liverpool Sheffield, Newcastle, etc and the Tories dont even have a councillor in Manchester. Labour, outside the cities, are almost unknown in the South West.
So Labour will not get 32% in the South West and Tories will not get 38% in the northern cities.Equally LibDems will probably get 10% in many toryshires.
When one adds in this factor, as well as tactical voting, the resultant seat guess becomes different.. My guess is Lab 260. Tory 260 LibDem 100 Others 30
Sue Marsh
I would like to think this is the first part of a well organised, coherent marketing effort by CCHQ for DC. But given how useless CCHQ have been over recent weeks I Have serious doubts..!
Anyway back on topic….I guess the more serious interviews will become more frequent when the campaign starts. Though Trev is more serious than Piers. The TV debates will be serious and with 3 x 90 minutes this will be enough time to explain policy, but it might be too late by then.
I agree the show did not really tell us anything new about DC. DC is nice posh bloke….,it’s hardly breaking news
Getting the right interviewer is important, going up against Paxman/Neil etc is a no brainer. It is just a vanity excercise for the presenter, no time to answer questions etc etc….
Simon. Purely from a strategy point of view, it seemed odd they showed voters walking away from him, showed him unable to convince a voter on the phone to vote Tory, even showed him under the words TRUST LABOUR at one point on a huge billboard. Did they not watch it back?
Mandy would have had several chuckles I fear. The “My office is bigger than your office” comment wasn’t great either lol.
Of course, this kind of thing only interests me and probably wouldn’t register with a single voter.
@Roysses,
I agree with you that the situation on the ground for the LibDems bears no relation to overall vote shares. They are like several different parties fighting several different regional elections against different opposition.
One thing I would say about the “no Tories in Manchester” thing is that although that is technically true, it relates only to the City of Manchester itself, a quite small geographical area. The Greater Manchester area is awash with Tories from Bury to Trafford and beyond. Its a bit like saying London has no Labour because they are poorly represented in Westminster and the City.
Somewhere in the depths of this thread someone described DC as a ‘nice upper middle class bloke with a bit of money’ which should of course read ‘a lot of money’! I’ve always wondered whether someone who never has had to worry about money and probably never will have to worry about money can really identify with the lives of ‘ordinary folk’? I think we, the electorate, are being asked to believe that Eton and the Bullingdon Club have nothing to do with DC the ‘new Conservative’ but I think many voters still worry about his background – does it matter that it is alleged that in private DC still calls Osborne by his Bullingdon Club nickname of ‘Oik’, a nickname which resulted from the fact that Osborne went to the ‘lesser’ public school of St Pauls whilst the rest of them went to Eton?
Roysses – much of what you say makes sense, but there is I think no way that the LDs could win 100 seats, especially not if Labour holds on to 260.
@Davids
It is a reasonable question to ask. I think if I was a concenred parent wnating the best school for my child might query how a man who cam ebottom of his class but still got into Eton might liek to fix this?
I understand that the death of Ivan has made DC more committed to the NHS. I think voters will buy that. But voters will want to know that the Tory are committed to a meritocracy.
In fairness to Michael Gove he has worked hard to combat this.
the ambiguity over Grammar schools, and Sweedish schools and Goldie Hawn Schools I think would confuse the average parent…. will all new teachers have first class honours? I am not sure voters will be able to sift through all of this….
I have visions of some IKEA type set up, I dont know why its just an image their ideas conjure up.
Sue Marsh – I imagine that DC’s interview, and also SD’s recent ‘intervention’, will give a bounce in the Con share of the opinions polls, at least in the short term. Whether this provides a platform for a surge in Con share remains to be seen.
I do agree with your comments re DC’s ‘niceness’ and that the voting public might prefer it if he presented a more serious image.
I recall the image of DC last week apparently rubbing away tears at the opening of the memorial wall that had been brought back from Iraq. This came across to me as ‘weakness’.
Personally, I would prefer a stronger type to be PM, but perhaps it will play well with voters and perhaps more importantly with women who I understand seem to prefer GB.
I didnt watch Brown’s or Cameron’s interviews but I listened to feedback on the radio about it after each of the interviews. I recall Brown after his interview got a lot of support, particularly from women callers to the radio station, but there was lack of similar support to Cameron’s interview yesterday. I agree this is not ‘scientific’ but the different levels of support I thought was quite significant.
Having just listened, half-heartedly on Daily politics,, to a labour and conservative mp squabbling about who is pocketing millions of pounds more iniquitously – i.e.: via Unite or ashcroft, it’s easy to envisage this being repeated, with other stuff, day after day after day and the Lib dems looking increasingly worth voting for as an alternative to both “major” parties.
I think it’s all on a knife edge: if GB wins most seats he will argue that it is his duty to continue building the country back up, push budget proposals through etc. The Cons/supporters can shout “Oi! that’s not fair – we got most votes!” but the reply from Lab and Lib Dems can/will be: “Yes, it’s a silly system isn’t it? But we’re going to try, with the support of the British public, via a referendum, to change it. It’s actually you who still support it so you’re stuffed. ” [hoist by your own petard I think the term is]
In this situation I envisage a fairly sensible programme of measures [they'll all be subject to lib Dem approval] and eventually a referendum, which will have a strong chance of belong passed.. Adios Tories.
It’s a win/win situation for both Lab and LD: labour stay in office and Nick Clegg remains at arms’ length from brown since any support the Lib dems give will be done on a case by case basis, not as part of a formal partnership it’s irrelevant whether Clegg likes/trusts brown or not because they can vote measures down if they disapprove of them.
Apart from the odd: “NO-ONE in their RIGHT mind would vote for BULLY-BROWN. I predict a majority of 80/100.” contribution, which is risible, I think most here agree that it will be close.
It’s quite conceivable that the whole political outlook/future of this country could hinge on just one seat.
@Paul Croft
“on a case by case”
This is one of the, perhaps the most, likely outocmes. Provided Brown wins more seats that Cameron.
How long would it work for? Iranian sanctions for instance? Tuition fees? ID cards? Tirdent?
What is a deal breaker for Lib Dems? I find them an illusive bunch to fathom… any Lib Dems thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
@ DAVID B
Interesting concept about can DC realate to “ordinary folk” It is strange how this is never levelled at any other group of politicians other than Tory. There are so many wealthy Labour/Lib Dem politicans it is hard to know where to start. It is a easy and a cheap shot at Tories but very hypocritical
GB is from middle class family. I am confident he has never had to worry about money. He has never had a “proper job” in his life. He is as tribal Labour at you get. Every job he has ever had in his adult life has always been about gaining a political advantage. He has been a MP for nearly 30 years, Chancellor for 10 and PM for 3 he is the ” establishment”. For anyone to claim he knows about ” normal” life is laughable.
To be fair there are politicians on all sides who have only worked in politics. He is not alone, it shows how poor are political system is and reflects badly on all side of politics
Rather than only supporting issues where they agree with Labour, they may do a deal to support Labour’s issues (even if LibDems hold a different view on it) as long as they can get Labour to support one of LibDem’s issues in return.
Paul Croft – some interesting comments you’ve made.
LDs will surely see this GE as an opportunity to bring about a change in the voting process. I can’t see them missing it.
Will the public see the Con message of Now for Change as simply saying it’s our turn in gov?
The real change offered by this GE is the first step to eliminating FPTP.
SIMON
I take your point that it is all relative. With reference to GB, his father was a parish priest and I can’t imagine that the family was swimming with cash – like most people in this country they probably had to be careful- and GB did go to a state school. Just dealing with the party leaders, GB’s childhood would have been very different from that of Cameron, or for that matter Clegg, who came from families who could afford to pay Eton College fees and whose experience of family life in their teenage years at least would have been very different from GB’s as they would have been at boarding school. Experiences which people have in their formative years do play a part in how they turn out as adults and society certainly works on this thesis, for instance, when determining policy for families where children grow up in an atmosphere of jobless ‘no hope’.
@Sue,
All very nicely put Sue, I just think we didn’t quite understand what each other was getting at!
Every word about Peter Kilfoyle I fully agree with but to quote Samantha (NOT Sammy please) “you know” ‘they’ feel like their Labour Party got took over by a (new) brand of Conservativeism simply to win the Election. So can you really blam some of them hitting back now the Blair project has been found out wanting?
DAVIDB
I accept most of what you say. DC is posh rich bloke. I am not disputing that. My point is why is the “ordinary folk” argument only labelled at Tories. When as discussed earlier it is true of many MP’s on all sides
I totally agree your childhood years do have a huge impact on your outlook in adult life.
Kilfoyle is correct,
Thatcherism and middle England demanded Labour come to the middle ground. Blair duly obliged. Now Brown is paying the price for it.
Thatcherism is bankrupt, so is middle England.
Does Brown take a left trun or jump back in the quagmire?
Charlie Kennedy was th emost astute of the lot of them. OR David Davis for that matter. Both these guys spotted the cess pool of bluff, deciet, illusion and broke n promises where everything is diluted to suit nobody.
Will either Cameron or Brown have the conviction to offer the first way, or the second way, now that the third way has been so discredited.
RE: Cameron & TREVOR McD
Dave came across as exactly the type of smug ‘git’ I used to enjoy beating at pool. They always assumed a woman would be rubbish, bet heavily on themselves & couldn’t believe it when they lost. Double or quits until I went home with more money than my waitressing job earned me in a week.
If Dave can trot out boring anecdotes, so can I
Eoin
‘Will either Cameron or Brown have the conviction to offer the first way, or the second way, now that the third way has been so discredited.
No.
Actually I see nothing in the polling that says that it is or that they should not continue to obfuscate. Only the same old ignorance and short term thinking is shown by the public. Just think, after all the spending and borrowing to improve the schools, education and police, the public thinks (alright, only just) that the Tories would make a better job of it.
You have to have a thick skin to go on after that and GB has a rhinoceros hide it would appear.
I forgot the NHS. The public thinks that the Tories would do better at that too.
Howard, I have never understood what “the third way” actually meant. The Blair project just seemed to me to be moderate Tory policies, the sort of one-nation Toryism that Mrs T rejected.
@ Howard,
I think it has got that bad that people would just like to hit the erase button on the last thirty years.
First they sold everything, and I mean everything….. have we anyhting left? I hear Michael Fish and co. are gonna get sold soon… someone even suggested GCHQ. I would not be surprised if Buckingham palace was next…
I cant watch a game of footy on the telly without paying someone a fortune for the privelege.
I have to pay a grand if i want to swtich my heating supply…
the rises and falls in petrol dont impact on my wage bill…
it costs a fortune to get form an airport to a town centre..
i have to wait until after 6pm before I can phone home..
i have to pay for insurance for everything and i mena everything…
we have constructed the maddest freaking economy one oculd ever imagine. They should take our salary off us on payday and split it between them
just as long as we can catch the train to work, phone home and watch the telly in a warm house…
i’d sign on th edotted line in the morning..
oh and they are even working on taking cheap flights of us… you could quite comfotably write a book onthis stuff… (self harming may occur in the progress of it)
Amber – you are the only other woman I’ve ever heard of that liked hustling men at pool!! Go girl.
The first line of your post made me LMFAO
@ SUE
Service with a
I thought Gordon did well on the Politics show. Did you see it?
No, might iplayer it if I get a chance later.
Wonder what the week will bring? Further narrowing from YouGov? shockers from any of the others? Who’ll be the first to show a level result? I say tonight, 37/34/19
Wonder who’ll be the first to put Labour on 35 or above?
Eoin Clarke
Never mind writing a book – you should sign up for the TV series on “Grumpy Old Men”. Tell me, just when WAS life bearable?
“SIMON
I take your point that it is all relative. With reference to GB, his father was a parish priest and I can’t imagine that the family was swimming with cash – like most people in this country they probably had to be careful- and GB did go to a state school. Just dealing with the party leaders, GB’s childhood would have been very different from that of Cameron, or for that matter Clegg, who came from families who could afford to pay Eton College fees and whose experience of family life in their teenage years at least would have been very different from GB’s as they would have been at boarding school. Experiences which people have in their formative years do play a part in how they turn out as adults and society certainly works on this thesis, for instance, when determining policy for families where children grow up in an atmosphere of jobless ‘no hope’.
”
I’m afraid that is terribly naive of you. Labour MPs are also primarily made up of Eton/Cambridge/ Oxford types – as are all MPS generally. Many of the Labour MPS were also at the heart of the MP expenses scandal, showing that they are just as middle-upper class in both social standing and thinking (i.e. contempt for ordinary people) as the Tories. To suggest otherwise is merely wishful (and wildly) inaccurate thinking.
DAVIDB
I understand the point you are making, but you have to compare like with like.
It’s not just pedantic to point out that the Church of Scotland doesn’t have priests, or that the term “state school” has a specific resonance in England, but we don’t use the term.
Clearly Brown has a different background from the Southern English Upper Middle (another term that we don’t use) class that is fairly dominant in all three main UK parties, but the connotations are different.
SUE MARSH
I would be very surprised if Angus Reid put Labour on 35 any time soon.
YouGov showed Labour on 35 already but it was/is considered a rogue though since then they have showed Labour on 34 twice.
The David Cameron interview will probably benefit the Tories in the polls in the next week. I realise that many on here didn’t like it, but you probably didn’t like DC or the Tories anyway (i.e. even a good interview would not have gained admiration). Also, interviews and press, be they negative or positive, always make a few more voters more inclined to vote for the party. Also, those who already identify themselves as being probably Tory voters will probably not change their commitment to voting Tory on the basis of an interview.
For the record, I didn’t like GB’s interview that much, but then I’m not a Labour voter or supporter (which merely illustrates my point). I found both GB’s and DC’s interviews a bit cringy.
MATT
I think that you will see substantial differences between the social backgrounds and total educational experience between Tory and Labour MPs and I’m sure someone has done the research. Does anyone have the details so we can put this one to rest.?
@ SUE
I’m hoping it’ll be 3 & 2 delta all this week.
I don’t think Dave will get a bounce from his interview. We all knew Dave was a ‘good bloke’ already.
Any reduction in the gap will come from LAB campaigning (take a bow, Sue) – as there’s nothing big happening this week – barring “events, dear boy, events”.
And it will be great if there’s a COMRES this week that is nc or better than last time (C37 L32); if COMRES backed up YG’s 2-3% trend, that would be awesome.
Percentage of Conservative and Labour MPs that had Public School education since 1979
Year Cons % Lab %
1979 73% 18%
1983 70% 14%
1987 68% 14%
1992 62% 15%
1997 66% 16%
2001 64% 17%
2005 60% 18%
Percentage of Conservative and Labour MPs that had Public School education since 1979
Year Cons % Lab %
1979 73% 18%
1983 70% 14%
1987 68% 14%
1992 62% 15%
1997 66% 16%
2001 64% 17%
2005 60% 18%
You think whether someone is publicly educated is the only measure of privilege? Think Tony Blair’s son who went to Harvord on AAB at A Level!!!!
ASH – can you confirm that the %s shown are of the total combined Con and Lab MPs?
Also, think of the number of Labour MPs who came from middle/upper class/well-to do background i.e. virtually all of them!!!
I watched a few minutes of Dave on McDonald and had to switch over it was so terribly banal and pointless. I didn’t watch Brown on Morgan as I feared the same. Interestingly, the viewing figures show Brown got twice the audience of Cameron – this could be either that people are indeed ‘taking a second look at Labour’, but it’s more likely to be much better trailing of the good bits.
In terms of whether Cameron will get any benefit? I tend to think not. He’s exposed his private life (or at least what he likes us to think is his private life) ruthlessly and shamelessly over the years. [I would be interested to know if they employ any domestic helpers, as I don't believe any have been spotted on Davecam]. In some ways the interview could damage him, as it merely backs up an impression of a shallow politician without much substance which is already a key weakness for him. by contrast Brown’s interview probably helped as his weakness was the ‘speak your weight machine’ type of thing and a few dull but human touches are probably to his benefit.
Ash – those are figures for private school education, not public school education (not that many people would frankly care about the difference. Though I expect the Scottish contingent might, since I think public schools refers to state schools north of the border, as opposed to meaning a sub-set of private schools south of the border).
Anyway, there is a good breakdown here
http://www.suttontrust.com/reports/PoliticiansBackgrounds_09-Dec-05.pdf
BTW just to reiterate, I don’t mind if Labour won the next election because if they do – as someone with low job prospects and a very low chance of ever owning my own house – I’ll just do what a lot of people my own age do and get my girlfriend pregnant and live off the state. Under a Labour government, this would be much more comfortable and I wouldn’t have to worry (as compared with a Tory government).
So even though I disagree with Labour policy in many areas, I will probably benefit most under them (and hence, probably give my vote to GB).
Ash – that put THAT one to bed then!!! LMAO.
so much for the Tory party of the people, for the people.
all MPs are equal, it’s just some are more equal than others…..
JohnH,
You are right, except for the old tut tut. Sadly this is the fustration of the modern youth.
Times are good when I travel. Italy especially so!
ASH and ANTHONY
Thanks for the information – Sutton Trust report is very interesting.
Eoin Clarke
Did you see the poll on identity in the Belfast Telegraph?
“Some 39% of those polled describe their nationality as “British”, with a further 18% stating they are “Northern Irish”. Again, there is a significant difference in responses from people of a certain age. Older people are more likely to consider themselves British, with those aged between 18 and 29 instead opting for Northern Irish status.”
Any comment?
Anthony
Correct. Public schools are those which are publicly funded. Independent schools is the term for those which are privately funded.
@ Oldnat, Anthony
I have copy sitting in my living room.
The most interesting statistic is that more than a quarter of Catholics a) see themselves as British b) would vote to remain in the UK.
I guess on the Protestant side it was interesting that a quarter envisage a united IReland happening within the next 10 years.
I’ll go check who carried out the research
@ Anthony
Inform Communication Political Opinion Poll?
Do they ring a bell?
The sample I think is small 1020. In Northenr Irlenad not on eperson in 1020 would agree with each other.
Belfast Teelgraph is pitched at moderate unionist. Its readership is mostly unionist or city dwellers (and by that I mean I mean Belfast)