YouGov daily figures – 36/32/20 – UPDATED
Tonight’s YouGov daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%(-3), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 20%(+4). After a fortnight or so of leads within one percent of 6 points, we have something ever so slightly different. The lead hasn’t changed much, and is still very easily inside the margin of error of an unchanged six point lead, but there’s a noticable drop for the Conservatives and a boost for the Lib Dems.
As ever, we should treat changes with some scepticism until confirmed by further polling (remember that 2 point lead a fortnight ago that immediately vanished in the next poll) but it’s worth noting that we have now had three YouGov polls in a row showing a lead below 6…
UPDATE: There is also a new Harris poll in the Metro. The topline figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 18%(-4). This implies a 7 point jump for “others” to 16 points.
When it comes to minor parties there is an interesting divide between the traditional phone pollsters and YouGov on one hand, and the newer online companies on the other. YouGov and the phone pollsters all have the “others” around 11% or 12%. The three new online entrants, Harris, Angus Reid and Opinium all have them around 16% or 17%.
YouGov 37-32-17 tonight
37/32/17
Where do you guys have the figures from? ConservativeHome agree with them by the way, I’m just curious.
Amber hi
5% is better than 6%
but poor Lib/Dems are down again.
Hi Al J
Yes, I was expecting 5% or 4% again, at best. I think this is good.
This is how it got from 10% down to 5%, bobbling about before settling to a new low.
So after going up 4 the LDs are down 3?
In a single day? But labour stay the same and Tories up 1 so ‘others’ up 2 ?
‘Others’ are really buggering up the polls.
Presumably the raw data is Tories 49 Labour 21 and LDs 10 ‘others’ 20 … I suppose sarcasm is against house rules but I am drawn into it.
@Quincel
It’s on the political betting website
Wolf, thanks for picking me up on my bad maths. You are quite right, on the figures I posted the only stable minority Government (other than a “grand coalition”) would be Labour supported by the Lib Dems.
I was thinking of another set of figures in which the LibDems get 75 and the two largest parties are equal in terms of number of seats rather than number of votes.
You actually recinforce a point I have made before. In most “hung parliament” scenarios the LibDems can support one of the two major parties to hold office, but the other party (the one with fewest seats) can only exercise power with the help of both the LibDems and other parties.
To a first approximation, the issue as to who should form a minority Government is easily solved: only the party with the largest number of seats will be able to arrange stable support.
This was demonstrated in the 1920s. the 1924 Labour Government, with fewer seats than the Tories, was only able to retain office for months. From 1929 to 1931 Labour, as the largest party, was able to govern until it was destroyed by internal splits (which would have done for a government with an overall majority too) rather than defeat in the Commons.