Some of you may need to look more closely at that marginal poll and not be taken in by the hype. Try checking which constituencies were actually polled.

Firstly all labour marginals where the tories came third were not included. Watford (tory target 40), Edinburgh S (tory target 76), Ochil (tory target 87), Hampstead (tory target 120). On a 6.7% swing all 4 of these go tory!

Secondly the polls 50 – 150 targets seats are different from the tory top 200 target seats shown on this site. Their 50 – 150 poll includes Bury S (11% swing), Ealing Central (notional tory after boundary changes), Coventry NW (11%) swing, Edmonton (11% swing), Lewisham W (15% swing), Stalybridge (11%). Inclusion of these large labour votes within that 6.7% calculation surely means that the swing percentage would have been higher than 6.7% if only those in the tory 200 target list were included. To make up for these additional seats there are tory top 200 target seats omitted such as targets 111, 114,117,127,129 – all of which would also have gone on even on this swing.

Thus from the tory top 200 target list point of view the swing % is surely higher than 6.7 and there are at least another 9 extra seats that would fall on top of the predicted 97. So it is 97, plus 9, plus even more when the swing is corrected.

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If the current trend continues to show similar Labour momentum over the next 8 weeks, the party will hold enough of its marginals. Then we have a Labour govt with an overall majority.

That is where the trend is taking us even if the media, and many others, cannot believe it.

“I wonder how much of politics is down to long term trends rather than short term bullygate or Cashcroft stories.”

You could have something there. The progress of the SNP over the last half century has been so gradual as to be imperceptible.

They won’t make much progress at this election either, but they may well move into a position where FPTP flips in their favour on a tiny swing at the following one and they take a majority of the Scottish seats unless Labour get in in 2010 and change the voting system.

“If the Conservatives cannot pull ahead in these marginals after millions spent on them ….”

Have you considered that it might be that the Conservatives cannot pull ahead in these marginals BECAUSE OF THE millions spent on them?

Argyll&Bute, Perth&N.Perthshire and Angus are all possibilities, outside chance of Stirling and East Renfrewshire.