Make your predictions
Posted on March 7th, 2010 by Anthony Wells
There are unlikely to be any polls out tonight, so in response to public demand (and organised by Al J), here’s a thread for your general election predictions. Please try and keep this thread for general election predictions, rather than wander off onto other subjects.
Filed under: Uncategorized
I predict: Con 36; Lab 34; LibDem 21, but with the Tories doing better in Lab/Con marginals, roughly the same number of seats for Lab & Con.
LibDems support a minority Labour Government, but not with GB as PM. GB would try to hang on as a minority PM without LibDem support, but would be unable to form a Government, so the Queen would take advice & invite someone else.
Conservative majority of around 40. There is a clear swing back to the Tories from the last election and the mood is for change. This is nothing to do with the deficiencies of Labour or the qualities of Conservatives. The polls are hesitating at between 4% and 13% – lead probably around 8% in accordance with the marginals. A firming up of the Tory vote to around 39% – 41% will be enough for them – like it or not.
con 35
lab33
LD 25
Con 293 Lab 261 LD 62
I don’t do %, I do numbers
I expect there to be massive regional variations in swings – even within Tory/Labour “key marginals” with the Southeast and West Midlands swinging more violently than the North – and especially Scotland. A good measure is how much a particular constituency depends on public spending. The more it does, the less I see it swinging Tory.
I think that some constituencies where the MP stood down in June after the expenses and where there has now been a high quality PPC in place working fulltime for several months now might see Labour hold on – against expectations – and perhaps even outperform seats where a sitting MP is up for re-election. Barrow is a good example of this.
We should expect some “wildcards” eg. Labour holding Birmingham Edgbaston.
I expect significant numbers of “Iraq Lib Dems” to return to the Labour fold to keep the Tories out, but this to be offset by other Labour voters going elsewhere.
I expect the Lib Dem vote to be squeezed because of the “hung parliament” issue – ie. why vote tactically for a Lib Dem only for them to prop up a Tory Govt? (and vice versa)
In terms of overall figures, I’d go for:
Tory: 37
Labour 32
Lib Dem 17
Others: record levels
Tory Minority Govt propped up by nationalists.
Tories plan to go to the polls in October but…
Tories get cutting.
Ed Miliband replaces Gordon Brown; Labour leader, get their acts together and overtake Tories in polls.
So Tories hang on.
And it all goes messy
OR
Tories propped up by Lib Dems in return for STV. And then the game completely changes…
As for my own seat, Copeland: the Lord knows…literally. It’ll be a “battle of the turnouts” with the BNP as a bigger risk to the Labour vote than the Tories.
Hi YACOBS + MARK S
All predictions are very welcome AND
We need % to include your prediction in our average
CON
LAB
LD
is usual format
Here’s mine;
Con 38
Lab 32
LD 20
Amber
Just a note -I realised last week that newcomers have their comments held for a while. When they are released they are still in chronological order -so I had to scroll back at times just to check -hope this helps
And what will happen here in Norwich?
Norwich North will go ‘back’ to Labour (reversing the loss in the by-election) – factors are against the Cons (boundary changes for the GE moves 2 ‘blue’ wards out, Labour voters won’t stay away as much as in by-election)
Broadland where I am will be predictably Tory
Norwich South. Well. Blimey. Could be anything. Chuck a dart at a 4 coloured board and see what happens! Can’t see it being Lib Dem (not as big in Norwich as they were 5 years ago), COULD be Green, but think Lab will hold it but on a low share of the vote. It really is a 4-way seat this time.
OK….Con 37 Lab 32 LD 23
Sorry…
Hi AL J
Good catch on the new comments appearing in their ‘original’ order. I will download all the new comments when we finish tonight & check them to my individual down loads to make sure I have everybody.
I’m noticing an upward trend in LD already.
I didn’t start a new game this week, I’m just updating last weeks with new comers & revised predictions. Is that OK – or did you want a new game for this week only?
I was keeping my head down earlier. SUE & I got some modding because SUE ran out of patience re Gordon taking flack about the economy. She posted a brilliant summary in his support & I fired off a couple of congratulatory salvos.
Car Crash!!! Anthony had to get out the pruning shears as loads of people waded in. I have used up 3 of my ‘mod’ allowances on that alone.
Then EOIN & I started a lively & friendly debate on the budget – COLIN jumped in with “What about the structural deficit?” Did you read the posts? Anyway, EOIN had to rescue me – but at least I didn’t get modded for that discussion.
I also said earlier that JASON was a troll – cause he said he was left leaning but considering voting CON this time around. Very mean of me & I retracted.
So – to end a very long story – I did not cover myself in glory today so I decided to go quiet for a bit
C 37 Lab 33 LD 18 Other 12
Amber
I’ll go along with you updating last weeks with newcomers and revised predictions. Sounds good to me
Don’t give it a second thought re your last sentence. It always seems worse at the time an d with all the General Election excitement – all be forgotten before you can say ‘’ Jack Robinson’’. Lol 
Steve A , myself and Ash have been shepherding people this way, but for some reason it does seem a bit quieter this week.
I’ve been busy today – had to go on a small trip. I’ll scroll back in a minute and read the posts you mention. Please don’t worry about your modded posts. Anthony said those with over 20 should be a bit more careful. I know you are never abusive so it must be due to minor ‘’ naughty step’’ reasons. To be honest it’s very difficult to keep ones cool when confronted with **………..** – You get my drift.
Btw can’t wait for the campaign to start.
1. Change wanted
2. Anti Union vote
3. Stronger Tory swing in marginals
4. Any one but Brown when it comes to polling day, particularly the Female vote
5. Cynical electioneering tactics of Lab will prove to be a turn off
I predict 41 29 20 (Con Maj of 25+)
my predicition
Tory 37
Labour 33.5
Libs 19
Others (whatever is left)
My Partner’s predicitons (if they can be counted separately)
Tory 38
Labour 33
Libs 17
Others (she counted it up 12)
Okay – we have 143 contributors after 2 weeks.
The scores are:
CON 37.97% (38.09%) 285
LAB 32.17% (32.16%) 284
LD 20.43% (20.42%) 52
On a rather disappointing turnout. Our campaign will be better organised next week
Well done Amber – I am liking the trend lol
@Amber Star
Speedy calculations. Priceless.Thank you very much
Sorry, was away.
However, i would have predicted 38-32-20.5, so no effect on the average
Cheers
Mr Cellophane
Amber – I couldn’t find the thread til now.
I’m still giving Lab a two point lead, but did I say 37/35 originally or 38/36?
Either way I now think 37/35/22
Tories 39
Lab 30
Lib 18
Others split…..
Tory majority of 20-25
Con 40%
Lab 33%
LD 17%
Oths 10%
Con 45%
Lab 24%
LD 22%
Oths 9%
@ Martin
‘Con 45%
Lab 24%
LD 22%
Oths 9%’
Really?! Or was this an over-tired-1246am-prediction?