TNS BMRB show 8 point Tory lead
5 Mar 2010
TNS BMRB have released a new poll, topline figures with changes from a week ago are CON 39%(+3), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(-2). Fieldwork finished on Wednesday so is more up to date than poll earlier in the week.
Since then I have some more details about the methods TNS BMRB are using – it is a face to face poll (making them the only political pollster still doing them now MORI have switched to phone polls), though the voting intention question itself is self-completed. They weight by normal demographics, plus past vote. My understanding is they use they use the actual 2005 vote shares without adjustment for false recall, like Angus Reid do. Finally they weight by likelihood to vote.
Filed under: Uncategorized
@ COLIN
I don’t want to debate your view of these policies-I think I know what it is-I just wanted to explain the overall philosophy.
——————————————————–
I doubt you know – or can even guess – my view of each individual policy. I also understand the overall CON philosophy.
I was making the point that many voters either don’t ‘get’ or don’t agree with that overall philosophy.
And at then end of your comment, you pretty much agree with my analysis of that. Thanks for your support
I don’t comment often, mostly just read the latest polling news. I have noticed far more labour supporters here lately. It must be the forthcoming election. But I have also noticed the resident Tories don’t appear to like it very much. At least there is a balance now.
Sue as others posters have said, don’t take any notice of people playing the ‘man’ and not the ‘ball’. It seems they are losing the battle.
Guys – stop ganging up on SUE – we all have times when we want to vent or express ourselves in ways that others don’t buy into.
The nice thing about this site is we are usually all civil to one another. We criticise the content of the post, not the way it is expressed.
Let’s not descend into having a go at each other, please.
@ Anthony
RE: My comment that’s awaiting moderation.
Please bin it. I got carried away. Sorry.
I’ve heavily pruned the last couple of hours comments. The comment policy does actually apply when I’m not online you know?
It’s a shame that people here even see this as a battle. The battle is out there in the country. This is the comfortable drawing room where we discuss the day’s warfare over port and cigars.
I second Amber -leave Sue alone. We all have our own ways of expressing ourselves.
Sue they are winding you up because of our political beliefs -nothing else.
I’m off now. I’ll come back later to see if Anthony can give us any latest poll news.
@ Anybody who is curious
I made a comment about CON tax policy & Lord Ashcroft which was unfair. I’ve asked Anthony to throw it in the trash.
Hee hee referred to me laughing hysterically at being called Harriet Harman!!!
@AMBER STAR
I know you are in a highly radical Scottish environment
which obviously is not swarming with Tories. However, the Southern English situation is quite different. From what we understand the midlands of England are pro Tory and the North of course more pro Labour. I know all this is stateing the”bleedin obvious” but believe me many millions of English (and it seems quite a lot of Welsh) are not as convinced as you. Its still HOPE vrs FEAR I am afraid.
@Anthony
You can bin my comment that’s awaiting moderation, please.
@SUE MARSH
Thats done it, I shall be in fantasy land until next Tuesday.
Harriet Harman – I like her, but I don’t know what the public’s perception of her is.
Can she attract more votes to Lab in the GE campaign?
Before I go
Anthony I don’t mind if you bin my comments -even the one where I answered Colin -(though I thought it was very good) lol
The ensuing election is definitely heating up partisan passions amongst the posters here.
@Maurice and others; While I understand your sentiment against some of the left-leaning posters and opinions here, the way you presented your arguments was always going to cause offence because of the belligerent overtones.
While @ Sue Marsh and others; Some of your responses to these posters baited them on, which is almost equally immature, even if they threw the first metaphorical stone.
@Amber Star. I think its slightly misleading to say that the public trust Labour more on the economy, even if one poll by channel 4 suggests that. The Conservatives said they were going to make savage cuts way back in December and the majority of polls since then puts the Tories on either equal footing or ahead.
Also to speak about the public in general is slightly incorrect; usually “public” means “swing voters”
And even so I don’t think that they really trust anyone with the economy at the moment.
Cameron will be hopeful that the weekend conference will somewhat remedy that. Yet although Iraq doesn’t seem to be an issue on the face of it, the negative media coverage that he is getting over the enquiry will possibly transfer into Afghanistan as it focuses on cuts to the military?
The Ashcroft story seems to be dying out with little or no effect on the polls.
@ ROLAN HAINES
I asked a question about whether or not Brown is doing the right thing – politically – in visiting Afghanistan at this time.
I’d value your opinion about that question. IMO, You have a lot of insight into this particular issue & are even-handed enough to answer fairly.
@ PETER WARWICK
Also to speak about the public in general is slightly incorrect; usually “public” means “swing voters”
And even so I don’t think that they really trust anyone with the economy at the moment.
———————————————————–
You make an excellent point. The C4 poll – & a few others which have shown LAB doing well on the economy – doesn’t tell the whole story. Are they doing better over-all & is it sustainable?
You’ve certainly given me something to ponder & I’ll take another look at any detail contained within these polls.
Peter Warwick
‘Also to speak about the public in general is slightly incorrect; usually “public” means “swing voters”’
With respect you are wrong. When the pollsters take samples it’s not only ‘swing’ voters. The sample is a cross section of the public.
Would you care to explain your comment?
Are there any polls out today/tonight?
@AMBER STAR
Thanks for trusting my sense of fair play.
I believe the standing of politicians of any colour is now at such a low level that it will be seen as a spin doctor inspired visit. This will hope to show how Gordon loves the poor poor soldiers. The issue is, does it signify anything whether they believe him or not.
Maggie (English perspective) was a right hard bitch, but she stood up for this country. Gordon is a bad tempered old sod who wont answer a question, but he has the brains to get us through this very difficult time. This latter sentence is what he should be aiming for, because its to late for general trust and affection.
@James Ludlow ‘people like me – hardworking middle-incomers frightened that Labour’s continued dedication to tax-and-spend in a severely indebted economy is going to hit us very hard indeed in order to channel money elsewhere.’
James, I 100% sympathise with your point. Our economy is not only severely indebted, but also long term inbalanced and enfeebled. I am desperate for serious, grown-up debate to begin among the politicians about a) the actual situation, as it continues to evolve b) the different options facing us.
I have absolutely no doubt that those options will include both substantial overall increases in taxes AND substantial overall cuts in public expenditure over AT LEAST the next 3-4 years.
So, debate ought to be focusing on the balance of the future tax burden, and the balance of priorities for public spending – where additional taxes should be heaviest (on the very wealthiest? on alcohol?…); who/what should be spared or even relieved taxes (employment? the lowest earners/poorest pensioners?…); what should be spared the public expenditure cuts, or even increased (pre-primary and primary education of the poorest? start-up support of new manufacturing?….); and where should the cuts fall heaviest (clearly on the biggest budgets as that’s where the money is: defence? NHS? police?, prisons?, social services?….).
This would be serious grown-up political debate, with underlying principles at least impliied, and hopefully spelled out. Is it too much to hope that the TV companies will force the leadership debates in this direction?
@ STEVE A
I agree with your points on the latest polls.
RE: Comments being moderated – Anthony is pruning like an overworked tree surgeon! Most of us needed a snip or two today
@Roland Haines
I think your assessment is correct. Basically people don’t care if their PM comes across as overbearing or bullish. What matters is does he/she have the gumption/awareness to do the right things in a fair way.
I think Labour will win this argument as Brown comes across as having strength and expertise, whereas Cameron appears flimsy and inexperienced.
Amber Star
Thank you. Anthony has been busy pruning, you are right.
Just touching upon the polls regarding trust on the economy. Apart from the Channel4 News poll I think there has been a steady drift in Labours favour on the economy which is reflected in voting intention.
If the economic outlook improves I would expect the polls to tighten, but it wouldn’t necessarily benefit the Conservatives if economic growth faltered, because people may feel Brown is still best placed to deal with it.
@STEVE A
Cameron comes across well enough to be leading in the polls in most of England and a lot of Wales. Labour are a very long way form forming another government as we stand today. The Tory reduction in support is his chance to show his grit and hold his nerve, or not.
@ ROLAND HAINES
Thank you for replying. I agree with you, Brown has no chance of winning the hearts & minds of military people or their families by simply visiting Afghanistan.
I think the visit will be seen as all show no substance unless it is followed by a pledge to ring fence future defence spending against cuts; & to focus that spending on frontline support not big ticket purchases.
And he should consider a pledge of no more military action by the UK unless there is a clear & present danger to the UK itself (not just its ‘interests’) or a UN mandate for intervention e.g. to prevent terrorism or genocide.
Unless GB’s visit is followed by policies that support the military in the right way, it is pointless.
I am completely persuaded by your opinion on this & I think it accurately reflects the way voters will perceive his visit. Thanks for replying.
@Steve A.
I didn’t mean that pollsters only poll swing voters. I mean that whenever there is a change in the polls, people generally say “the public”.
Even at the height of the Tories lead, they were only 15 or so points ahead of Labour. 15 percent of the population doesn’t decide the entire public.
So when pollsters and others say “the public increasingly trust/distrust” or whatever, its usually the minority of the population who are “swing voters” as most have already made up their mind…
@ Wolf MacNeill – Brilliantly put re economic discussion
@Roland and @Sue Marsh
Of course GB’s visit to the front line is being portrayed as spin: GB going to Afghanistan last month, last week, today, next week, next month, whenever before GE day – the spin charge flies all too easily out of the mouths of those who would hope to lead us next time around, into, through and out the other end of such awful, but inevitable, life and death decisions.
And if he hadn’t visited again before GE day, I suppose the Opposition would have very decently spared him their barbs!
Hmph – please pull the other one!
@Sue – thanks for your proposal of yet another huge chunk of ring-fenced budget (Defence) – so where will the public expenditure savings be found (not there, not the NHS, not wherever, nowhere?….)
@Sue – thank you, and sorry it had to cross with me having a go at you about ring-fencing Defence, but I think we are both on the same song sheet here: the need for grown up debate about values, principles and choices for managing public expenditure and taxation. All the best. W.
Easy there Wolf, you have the wrong gal – both times.
I merely complimented you on some very well put thoughts on the economy. I’ve been out “supporting the economy” for the last two hours!!!
@WOLF & AMBER
You (Wolf) kind of support my point. Its come to pass whereby if Cameron or Brown were taken short during PMQ, the spin would conclude that they were having medication or being made up. Its reached a very low level. I make no bones that I believe the desperation felt by Labour during the reign of “that woman” developed into the formation of a spin culture which the Tories have of course joined in with. Look at Camerons background for emphasis of that point.
@SUE MARSH
How could he get a woman who is like Harriet Harman confused with anyone else.
I love this site, we are all so tempted by the dark side, its great to see how the political rather than polling comments gradually build up until Anthony comes along and tells us all off!
Will the Sunday Time YouGov poll be out tonight at 10?
I think it is the time of the month for a ICM poll for the telgraph. Is that true?
@ WOLF MCNEIL
I think you confused me with “Harriet Harman”. I suggested that Brown’s visit to Afghanistan is a bit pointless unless he has a significant policy announcement to make on the wider issues.
I also think you might be confusing LAB & CON re. ring-fenced budgets. I’m aware CONS have said they’ll ring-fenced the NHS & International development. I don’t believe that LAB have said they’ll ring-fence anything yet.
I’m happy to stand corrected if you can tell me what LAB have specifically ring-fenced already.
@Wolf
“So, debate ought to be focusing on the balance of the future tax burden, and the balance of priorities for public spending – ……..”
I totally agree. The one senior poitician who has focussed on this, outlining specific policies, is Vince Cable. Cable is generally accepted by almost all financial experts as being more capable than Osborne or Darling. For this reason alone, never mind many others, I can’t understand why the Lib Dems are not polling higher.
@ PETERBELL
For this reason alone, never mind many others, I can’t understand why the Lib Dems are not polling higher.
——————————————————
It’s because they are perceived as being unable to actually win! Obviously a ‘self fulfilling prophesy’ – but LDs cannot seem to break out of it.
THIS IS OFFICIAL:
Comment Policy
UK Polling Report has a policy of encouraging only NON-PARTISAN comments.
The comments sections on most political blogs is either one sided, or dominated by petty political point scoring and tired rehersals of party political spin. I wanted something else. Therefore the rule in the comments section is that all comments should be made in the spirit of non-partisanship, to try and all people here to discuss polls and politics like adults with a shared interest, despite supporting different parties.
This means that it is not a place for spinning, not a place for saying how much you hate party X and wish they would lose, nor it is a place for saying what party should win, or what the public should support. We are interested in what will happen, what the public actually think, not what you think they should do. Treat other commenters who don’t share your views with respect – it’s your chance to understand their point of view, not score points off them – and indeed, politicans from opposing parties with respect. Comments that talk about Zanu-NuLab, one-eyed Scottish idiots and so on are not conducisive to the non-partisan sort of discussion we want here and will probably never leave moderation.
As a nice rule of thumb, think of it as a site about politics, not a venue for politics.
Comments from people who haven’t left one before will automatically be held back for moderation, as will comments containing links to other sites. Other comments may get held back in moderation if they contain certain words like viagra, poker, casino and so on (most notably “cialis” apparently some generic form of viagra, which unfortunately turns up inside the word so-cialis-m, so sometimes causes comments to be delayed) or if WordPress just takes an arbitary dislike to it. I’ll clear those comments out of moderation as soon as I can.
Other comments that get moderated probably mean I have decided it doesn’t meet the comment policy. Read the start of this, and ponder whether your comment really was in the spirit of non-partisanship. I normally take a light touch approach to moderation and only step in when a comment really has leaped over the line, is clearly bound to provoke a partisan argument, or where a poster is treating the comment policy with contempt.
If you see a comment from someone else that you think crosses over the line please do NOT respond with equally partisan rebuttals. If it is a new poster then please do welcome them, explain we don’t really do things that way round here, and point them in the direction of this policy. If it is someone who should know better, just ignore them: continuing a partisan argument is just as bad as starting it!
There are some LibDem policies that are seriously at odds with the majority view. Their extreme enthusiasm for Euro entry for example.
ICM NOW poll tomorrow 40 – 31 – 18 (last ICM was 37- 30 – 20)
A week without the Economy as top story ????
The last Liberal PM was a bit too much like Blair (cash for honours) People must have long memories! Seriously, I can see the day when the LD’s are resurgent as a result of Labour’s demise. After the European elections, I had hoped it would have been this GE, with Salmond wiping them out in scotland & Cameron in E & W. Then Scotland could have independence and England could govern itself at last. That doesn’t look like it will happen now but it will one day.
@Wolf M – I agree totally with your wish for a much needed sensible debate about the important issues of debt reductuion and the balanace of tax nicrease and spending cuts that will be necessary. the timing of these does not really seem too much of an issue. All the economists (both the 20 and the 60 letters) said that the cuts should come in 2010 only differing as to when in the year but by the time the election is over and a possible Cons gov has a budget the year will be half over anyway!
On polling matters there have been a number of threads on the possibility of tactical voting hurting the Cons and this certainly happened in 1997 and 2001
(this after a v. long period of Cons rule)but much less so in 2005 and it is possible that after all this time there may actually be some tactical voting in the opposite direction after long period of Lab rule and this may explain some of the higher swing the polls show in the marginals (please discuss!)
Also the Lib Dems usually improve their poll rating in the run up to the election and I suspect that this may hurt Lab more than the Cons.
@PETERBELL
Perhaps the LDs should say that their first condition for a coalition would be VC to be Chancellor?
@AMBER STAR
[Why the LDs are not polling higher] “It’s because they are perceived as being unable to actually win! Obviously a ’self fulfilling prophesy’ – but LDs cannot seem to break out of it.”
Same for any smaller party. That’s the inertia that “FPTP” causes. AV would fix that, as whether you thought your first choice could win shouldn’t affect your vote. I suspect that AV would show that the level of tactical voting under FPTP is significantly greater than most people realise.
@Amber Star
“It’s because they are perceived as being unable to actually win! Obviously a ’self fulfilling prophesy’ – but LDs cannot seem to break out of it.”
I agree that there is no possibility of them winning the forthcoming GE. However the polls are indicating a hung parliament – an opportunity for a large number of LDs to moderate the excesses (economic and others) of the Tory or Labour parties. Coalition government has done no harm to Germany over many years. I look forward to the Lab/Tory gap closing and the LD share increasing after the debates.
@Peterbell – The reson why the Lib Dems anot doing better is possibly due to their poor conference when Vince cable came out with his Mansion tax and about £20 billion of other tax rises and then blew cthe lot on a gigantic £22 billion tax CUT for everyone when the country has a £178 billion deficit. if you are going for a wealth tax then say so but dont add another distortion to the system by singling out one form of wealth. Ithink this damaged VC’s reputation.
Neil A
“There are some LibDem policies that are seriously at odds with the majority view. Their extreme enthusiasm for Euro entry for example.”
Your conclusion has some truth in it but that’s a poor example that doesn’t go very far to explain the lack of Success of the LibDems. There are very few who will vote in this election according to their views on Europe and we know that for the majority it comes nowhere near the top of the list of issues that most concerns them.
That you use the EU as an example is probably because you are anti-EU yourself, but the majority aren’t really bothered.
It’s FPTP as is said above.