YouGov shows Labour lead widening in Wales
ITV Wales have a new YouGov poll with Welsh voting intentions. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from January, are CON 29%(-3), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 12%(-1), PC 14%(+1). This represents a swing of 6.6 since the last election, so while the Conservative position has narrowed since YouGov’s last Welsh poll in January, it continues to show them doing a bit better in Wales than in the country as a whole.
On a uniform swing this would give the Conservatives 8 seats (gaining Carmarthen West, Brecon & Radnorshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North and Aberconwy), Labour 24, Liberal Democrats 2 and Plaid Cymru 5 (gaining Ynys Mon, Arfon and Ceredigion).
Voting intention in a referendum for further law making powers for Wales now stands at YES 53%, NO 31%.
The swing to the Conservatives shown here is almost identical to that shown in Labour marginals, though it is bigger than that shown in London. However, if we compare this poll to the current national polls, which if the Tories are 6% ahead means a swing in their favour of 4.5%, in fact it doesn’t net them any other Labour seats, since this swing is no longer enough to win Vale of Clwyd or other Labour seats with larger majorities than that such as Delyn. The poll will worry the Tories because the 2.5% reduced swing since the last poll would mean Labour holds in several seats which they would have been confident of gaining only a few weeks ago
Rightly or wrongly, the narrative must have now changed, Labour are in the resurgence and a once unthinkable election win must now be considered. I still maintain the Tories will come back to take it, but the news is currently just getting better and better for Labour.
PC up to 3rd, anyone with more knowledge of Welsh politics tell me if this is significant?
I am not at all sure that uniform swing is as significant within the Welsh context.
Many of the seats which are targeted by each of the parties, specifically Ynys Mon, are multi party marginals. And within that context, while of course there are Lab/Con seats but there are also a large number of seats Lab/Lib, Lib/PC (Ceredigion) with tactical voting and personality politics being historically significant.
For example Julie Morgan in Cardiff North and Roger Williams in Brecon & Radnor.
Equally the retirement of some incumbents will be a factor, for example Adam Price in Carm&Din (although PC should hold this) The locally popular John Smith in the Vale of Glamorgan seems to have handed the seat to Alan Cairns (Con) the sitting AM. Equally Helen Mary Jones may finally win in LLanelli for PC.
Furthermore, the new leadership of Labour under Carwyn Jones seems to have galvanized the party. The leadership debates in Wales may play a small role here. Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones are considered relative political heavy weights in Wales, compared to Kirsty Williams and Nick Bourne.
Also to put into the mix issues such as independents such as Blaenau Gwent – though obviously a ‘left’ candidate will win here. I do not think the expenses scandal will impact significantly on any incumbent outside of a universal swing.
Anthony – before I embarrass myself again could you remind me when the last poll was that these numbers are compared to?
This clearly adds to the overall picture of a much improved battleground for labour strategists. They began clawing back lost ground some time ago in Scotland, and while the initial UK wide polls could have been influenced by a strong Labour showing in Scotland, we now have evidence from Wales, London and the marginals that show the race is closer than anyone thought. Most talk of the Tories drifting back out to leads of 15 – 20% as some had predicted now seem to be fanciful.
One issue that will be important is how the improvement in labour perceptions will affect tactical voting. I think it’s fair to suggest that most observers assumed anti Tory tactical voting would not be a big issue this time with anti Labour calculations dominating. This was one of the big ideas behind the PB theory that Cameron would be home with a smaller national swing than UNS required. I’m not so sure now. With rising economic confidence and polling evidence suggesting fear of Tory cuts harming the recovery, Brown’s offer of an AV vote and the Ashcroft affair, it may be that the Tories ‘toxicity quotient’ has risen slightly while Labour’s has fallen. I can see a scenario where some Lib Dem voters in marginal constituencies return to keeping the Tories out.
Any thoughts or experience on the ground from posters?
This poll is interesting, suggesting some potentially vulnerable seats may stay with Labour after all, but I doubt if it changes the broader dynamics put forward last year. Wales does not feel it has had a good deal from Labour.
Some other points to note:
“Equally Helen Mary Jones may finally win in LLanelli for PC”
She might if she were standing, but she isn’t. I’m guessing Labour will hang on as a result.
Equally, I will be astonished if the LibDems lose Brecon and Radnor.
Furthermore, I fully expect – as I gather Labour do as well – to see the Tories take Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Vale of Clwyd, even on these less impressive results due to strong local factors. That’s on top of Cardiff North, CW&PS and Vale of Clwyd, while all sorts of strange things appear to be happening in Aberconwy – definitely one to watch and could be an upset win for Plaid.
So over the last week we have had polls showing a widening lead in Scotland and Wales for Labour; a narrowing of the Conservative lead in London; a narrowing lead for the Conservatives in the most important marginals and a stabilised 6% gap (a narrowing since the turn of the year) in the national poll.
Its all to play for as we approach the start of the campaign proper………
Alec – January 2010
I don’t think we’re really going to notice the start of the campaign proper. Its in full swing already. A bit more coverage of the LibDems and a little less kindness to Labour, perhaps, but generally a continuation of what’s happening already.
Anthony – I’ve always assumed that if any party is getting a bigger swing in the marginals, the deficit is made up by a much lower swing in their safe seats (because most people there already vote for them so can’t swing anyway). Is this broadly correct?
Does anyone know the poll period? The improving Lab and PC figures feel right to what I see here ‘on the ground’, tho perhaps they are still overestimating the Con numbers. (And the Lib? they’ve been under pressure for at least 6 months).
More significantly perhaps these numbers are very hard to square with the results of the BBC/ICM poll on 1 March. I posted the results on a Scottish thread – there didn’t seem to be anywhere more appropriate!
Here again fo comparison:
It doesn’t cover voting intention, but I think ‘who do you trust on the economy?’ is a reasonable proxy.
Lab 47
Con 24
Lib 9
PC 14
And on devolution
independence 11
full law and tax 40
law but no tax 13
as is 18
abolish Assembly 13
Yup, the question isn’t straightforward voting intention, but it’s hard to see a way of reconciling the 2 polls. ITV/YouGov seem to have 10% fewer Lab voters. There is also a 10% discrepancy in the ‘devolution’ qestion (if we add independence, tax powers, and law-making from the BBC/ICM data).
I agree with Jon K that uniform swing is a nonsense in Wales, though some websites (nameless!) swear by it. Have ICM and YouGove used totally different sampling processes in Wales – or is it all down to date?
To take the Aberconwy case – this is a new constituency only fought once before, in 2007 EU election. Result:
PC 38.6
Con 30.4
Lab 21.8
Lib 9.3
Turnout 47
The usual interpretation of 2007 is that Lab voters stayed home. In which case this would now be a PC/Lab marginal. That is indeed how it feels on the ground. Yet the US merchants (and some others) claim it as a Con/Lab marginal!
It’s good to see some Wales discussion – the result here cannot be estimated on an ‘English midlands plus Wales’ basis!
Hwyl
Plaid Cymru would support labour in a hung parliament so them gaining seats are almost like labour seats.
PC are almost guaranteed to take Ynys Mon, which went for Ieun Wyn Jones at the Assembly elections.
Did I not read somewhere reently, that in one of Labour’s western Wales seats, a split has broken out with the local party? It appears to be Blaenau Gwent all over again, with an outside shortlist imposed over the wishes of local party.
Interesting poll – I suspect Labour will do better in some constituencies than this poll predicts. I would say that Ynys Mon will at best be a 50/50 for Plaid, whilst Cardiff North is no Tory cert. Labour will probably put a good fight up in Arfon and I’m sure Lib Dems will fight tooth and nail for Ceredigion and Brecon & Radnorshire.
Wales is never a Tory nation anyway. I also think Labour will re-gain Beleau Gwent from People’s Law.
Catherine – it has be balanced out by a lower swing somewhere or other. That could be their own safe seats, or it could be their complete no hoper seats, or it could be Con v LD seats (most of these marginal polls cover only Con v Lab marginals).
@Quincel
Not really, Plaid are already the 2nd largest party in the Welsh Assembly, and in coalition government with Welsh Labour. A BBC poll showed that only 11% support independence, and Plaid don’t realy talk about it anymore.
Anthony [if you can tear yourself away from the yacht]
A comment of mine [10-04 pm a couple of nights ago] is shown in full but says it’s still “awaiting moderation.” Naturally I’m on teneterhooks [whatever they are] about this and wonder when the result will be announced?
Great site by the way.
Paul.
@Huw Clayton
Wales does not feel it has had a good deal from Labour.
——
That’s a very sweeping statement.
How did you arrive at it from the poll which shows more people will vote Labour than for any other party?
Or are you ‘Spokesperson for Wales’?
Paul
As a schoolboy, I spent many boring hours in the Summer holidays hanging kipper fillets on to tenterhooks before they were taken to the smoke house.
Though I think the “on tenterhooks” phrase originated with Smollett – and may relate to a different industry which used hooks on wooden sticks as well.
Aren’t you glad you asked!
Thanks ON but if you check back more carefully you’ll find I was asking about teneterhooks, surely not the same thing?
[Your schooldays sound like fun']
Thanks, Anthony – that makes sense and I didn’t think of the no-hoper seats option before.
Didn’t realise you were out sailing, sorry to distract you!
Paul
I googled for “teneterhooks” and found a couple of links -
One was your post to me, another was in a list of “commonly misspelt words”!
Turns out the original use of tenterhooks that Smollet referred to was the method of stretching wet cloth in the English cloth trade – great thing Google!
@ Geraint
Wales is never a Tory nation anyway.
That’s why Nick Bourne has worked to establish a Welsh Con identity somewhat to the left of the UK Cons.
His problem tho, is that as the campaign picks up, the London media will reinforce the UK Con message. This will be made even worse by the planned presidential debates – all in England, with exclusively English politics no doubt, ignoring all devolved matters in Wales, Scotland and N.Ireland.
While this is a problem for all three UK-based parties, it’s worse for Nick B as the gap between what he preaches in Wales and the what the UK Tories do in London is much larger.
I didn’t expect the Chilcot Enquiry to have much of an impact on the polls, but the media seems to be picking up on the fact that Brown is contradicting what the military has been telling the enquiry. Brown has been saying the military got everything they wanted, the military generally disagrees.
It is one thing for politicians to accuse each other of being dishonest, we’re used to that, but today Brown has effectively been saying that the military has not been truthful. I can’t see the public believing Brown over the military, so it may make people wonder what else is Brown not being honest about.
Effect on the polls? Depends on how much further the media pushes this point.
@Tony M
“It is one thing for politicians to accuse each other of being dishonest, we’re used to that, but today Brown has effectively been saying that the military has not been truthful. I can’t see the public believing Brown over the military, so it may make people wonder what else is Brown not being honest about.”
Brown just got glowing reviews from three separate observers/ reporters including Stothard and Boulton on the Labour friendly Murdoch owned Sky News….indeed Boulton now back on again being pretty complimentary!
No current military personnel are making the points you set out here and- as far as I know- the key critical ex military chap is the one who immediately joined the Conservatives. Now that really was playing politics with military matters.
But none of this is going to make any difference to poll numbers (and I actually think it should because I think the Blairites and the Americans did not plan well enough for the post invasion scenario).
It’s the economy stupid- again.
@Rob Sheffield
I’ve only been watching the BBC who have been commenting how Brown’s testimony is at odds with the military. They are speculating that they may call the military (or Brown), back at a later date to reconcile the difference of opinions.
I agree that the economy and jobs is more important to most people at the moment than the wars we are or have been invlved with over the past decade.
@Henlaw
Indeed, it be interesting come the election what role the party leaders in Wales play in the election, Nick Bourne is an advantege to Cameron and he would do well to use him. Likewise Brown would be clelver to get out Carweyn Jones and Rhodri Morgan to shore up the Labour vote.
@Henlaw – interesting point about the debates. I don’t subscribe to the SNP’s (and by extension Plaid’s) whinging about the debates – UKIP got more votes than them last time and they’re not standing in 90% of the seats, so they don’t deserve a place at the podium, and there aren’t enough people in the Celtic nations for there to be an absolute need to have a debate in one of them.
Nevertheless, there are certain issues of particular relevance in Scotland and Wales which just don’t feature in England. It’ll be interesting to see how the leaders deal with the situation. Do they ignore the devolved nations, or do they bring them into the questions? Does Cameron play up to little Englanders? Does Brown emphasise Labour’s Scottish and Welsh roots (and can he get away with this without being accused of pursuing a core vote strategy)?
Most of the marginals are in England, but if this is going to be a realigning election, those aren’t going to be the key ones – they’ll likely just swing back at a future election. For the Tories to rewrite political reality in Britain, they need to break back into Scotland and Wales, rather than just lurking near the borders as they do now, so that they can make the case that Britain (rather than England) is a Conservative country.
Anthony, I just love the way you spin every poll in a light best favourable to the tories. So Labour lead in Wales is widening and the tories are going to do really well.
You really are in denial.
The tory lead in the polls is down from 25 points to 6 and falling
The lead in the marginals in the crumbling.
Labour lead in Wales is increasing.
The electoral system is biased against the tories so they need to be 9 points ahead to win.
They need to capture more seats than since 1924.
They are not going to win a majority. The writing is on the wall.
Huw,
My mistake about the Helen Mary Jones comment, it does seem however, that Plaid are hoping for a win in Llanelli.
After the Assembly, local, and European elections they clearly feel ( and seem to be putting resources into) a win at Westminster is possible.
If they make it, it may be an example of the personal vote for Denzil Davies unwinding after Nia Griffith taking over for Labour in 2005.
I think it may be one to watch.
How far off could this be from being Labours worse result in Wales? The Tories won’t be as strong as they were in 83 even on a best case scenario for them, but Plaid and the LibDems should both get better results now than they did then.
Could we see non-Labour seats in Wales being Aberconwy(PC) , Alyn & Deeside (C), Arfon (PC), Blaneau Gwent (whatever the People’s-Party-not-Labour-anymore party are called), Brecon and Radnor (LD or C), Cardiff C (LD), Cardiff N (C), Carmarthern E (PC), Carmarthen W (C), Ceredigion (LD or PC), Delyn (C), Dwyfor PC), Llanelli (PC), Monmouth (C), Montgomeryshire (LD or C), Preseli (C), Vale of Glamorgan (C), Ynys Mon (PC)?
That would still put them on 22/40 seats, better than 83 but worse than 87 (adjusting for no of constituencies in Wales). I don’t think any of the results above are unrealistic individually though perhaps they are collectively.
Are there any other countries/regions where Labour could, quite realistically, get a result worse than 87 without some form of meltdown? (I’d have thought if you were looking at a very poor result you’d be looking at Lab losing places like Newport E, Gower, Bridgend, all of which they did in 83 but none of which seem all that plausible this time round).