The Daily YouGov poll is out and has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+3). The Conservative lead remains about the six point mark where it’s been for a fortnight other than the blip at the weekend. The Lib Dems are up from what looked like a strangely low 16 points yesterday. The political news over the last day or two has been largely dominated by Lord Ashcroft’s tax affairs and it seems to have had no effect at all on party support.

212 Responses to “YouGov Daily poll – 38/32/19”

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  1. Rob – It wouldn’t make Labour comfortably the largest party. As Peter Kellner says, it would leave the Conservatives somewhere around 11 seats short of a majority (depending, of course, on what happened in the battle between the Conservatives and Lib Dems).

    Anyway, I’ve put a post up now.

  2. I don’t see why 60 marginals shouldn’t be representative!!

    Anthony can you explain if 60 seats are enough? Thanks

  3. Anthony

    “Rob – It wouldn’t make Labour comfortably the largest party. As Peter Kellner says, it would leave the Conservatives somewhere around 11 seats short of a majority (depending, of course, on what happened in the battle between the Conservatives and Lib Dems).”

    yes- having crunched the numbers myself now using EC (which of course I should have done before the ‘instant reaction’) that model is saying Tories 32 seats short: mea culpa!

  4. Al – Enough for what? It gives you an idea of the situation in those seats. It doesn’t tell you about other seats that weren’t included, but with a swing of 4.5% in the national polls, these types of marginals that need a swing between 3% and 7% are the interesting ones.

  5. I see the results (compared to 2005) are Con +6%, Lab -7%, Lib Dem -2%. Were that to be repeated at a general election, the Conservatives might or might not just scrape a majority.

    Cameron leads Brown by 5% on best PM, but in seats that are more inclined to Labour than the country as a whole.

  6. @oldnat
    Thanks for the TNS link I quote:
    ‘The good news for the Conservatives is that their supporters are a lot ‘firmer’ in their resolution to vote Tory. Around 55%
    As an experienced canvasser I would have been astounded, flabbergasted, if the figure had been lower. As it is, I am rather dubious as the interviews were face to face. I have shewn my Dutch hand here earlier. Over there they say the CDA supporters are those who ‘wont say’!

    Note the date of the interviews too – more than a fortnight ago now.

    This is a very interesting poll and the likelihood to vote data are as interesting.

  7. Thanks Anthony

    I meant enough to be representative – but you’ve answered it for me already.

    Mark Johnson said;-
    **You need a poll of at least 100 Marginals to get a better idea of the Tory lead!**

    I was querying Mark’s assertion.

  8. @Howard

    “Over there they say the CDA supporters are those who ‘wont say’!”

    Not Geert Wilders supporters then ?! My academic sources at TuDelft and Erasmus Rotterdam are actually worried he will top the vote.

  9. I have a suggestion for Cameron that would play marvellous mischief with the non-dom debate….

    As well as banning non-doms from sitting in parliament, how about the Tories promise to ban them from making donations and make it retrospective. Promise to force all parties to give any non-dom donations over the past 10 years to charity.

    The Tories would have to find a few million to hand over, but their finances are healthy and they could probably borrow the cash from existing (domiciled) donors. Labour on the other hand would be bankrupted and instantly go into administration…

    Let’s see Mandelson argue against that proposal…

  10. Neil A

    I don’t think Labour would be bankrupted – too many people care and would dig deep into their pockets to save the party.

    Me included ;-)

  11. Al J – interesting concept. The Derrek Hatton years in Liverpool led to enormous surcharges being levied on individual councillors. The money was raised over a fairly short period of time through fund-raising events.

    People thought it was only fair to keep them out of bankruptcy

  12. @Jack & Sue Marsh
    “‘@ Pete B brilliant post re : “for instance (whether you agree or not) a large number of voters are in favour of the death penalty, against the EU, and want to stop immigration. These are all important issues, yet the 3 big parties all take the opposite position with only minor variations. Therefore many voters feel disenfranchised.”’

    Even more think the world is flat, that the Empire still exists and all foreigners can speak English if you speak it slowly and loudly.

    The point is simple; just because voters believe in something does not make it right. I am happy for some to be disenfranchised as I hope the majority of the voters are intelligent. I may be wrong.”

    Sue – thanks.
    Jack – you do talk utter rubbish. I was deliberately downplaying the figures. A majority think we should have the death penalty and leave the EU. Not so sure about immigration, but it’s certainly a sizeable minority. You cannot equate this with Flat-Earthers.
    And in case you’ve forgotten, we are supposd to live in a democracy. This is supposed to mean that the will of the majority should be paramount whether you agree with them or not. The fact that no major party represents the majority view on several major issues is scandalous.
    To imply that those who wish to leave the EU for instance are by definition unintelligent simply proves your own lack of intelligence.

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