Tonight’s polls

This evening we should have the latest tracker from YouGov, and ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent. Both should be out at around ten o’clock, as should I, but if they beat me home feel free to use this thread to discuss them.


200 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. @ Geraint

    “Still cannot be seen as good news for Cameron really. The polls are still in hung parliament territory and are still very close.”

    Not at all. A clear Tory majority if you consider the 150 (or was it 200) marginal results polled last week.

    IMO, possibly a 20-30 majority overall, may be more.

  2. Looks like the 2 point poll was a rogue. YouGov is widening slightly now (7 point versus 6) so who knows where things will be after a 4-6 week campaign.

  3. Folks,

    Dont feed the trolls.

    They’ll move on if you ignore them.

  4. So no snap election then!

    Well not until tomorrow’s polls and the reaction to Lord Ashcoft’s revelations!

  5. Was this poll before or after the tory conference. I expected a bit of bounce back but they seem to be in line with all except 1 of last weeks polls. It will be interesting to see how the ashcroft position is perceived and how hard labour hit the tories over it. Seems now labout are settling on the 32% mark. Still needing about 3-4% to stay in government in their own right.

  6. Okay, we need the data dates if the YouGov 7. Is +2 for the CONS from voters who don’t want another 5 years of Brown & a bounce from their conference?

    Those anti-LAB voters would’ve freaked when they saw CONS only +2%. I wonder if it is UKippers – I’m looking forward to seeing the detail.

    LAB -3% & LD no change; MOE??? I can’t see how to account for it otherwise. Anybody have any other ideas or suggestions?

  7. @Kyle Downing ‘Very well. I shall keep such opinons to myself and let everyone deny the truth.’

    You are still contradicting the rules, Kyle. Please don’t.

  8. @ Andrew – see the second part of my prediction ;)
    I bet Cameron was really pleased the rogue came out on the same day as his big speech.

  9. There’s a clear trend here with the Tories extending their lead from 2 points to 7 points in a mere 24 hours.

    However I didn’t include that 2 point lead poll in my Special Graph on the grounds that I didn’t like the result.

  10. @ KYLE

    I think you are pushing it. Anthony can bar you from this site, which he’d have every reason to do if you continue to say that YouGov deliberately altered a poll result.

  11. @ Andrew Myers

    “Looks like the 2 point poll was a rogue. YouGov is widening slightly now (7 point versus 6) so who knows where things will be after a 4-6 week campaign.”

    Indeed Andrew. Consider this also, The 7% could well be on the lower limit of MoE. 9% lead may not be out of the question.

  12. @Barry P

    Not at all. A clear Tory majority if you consider the 150 (or was it 200) marginal results polled last week.

    ——————-

    Something like the last 26 National Opinion Polls say you are wrong. So I hope the Conservatives are not being as complacent as you.

    I would hope Tory party HQ takes them a little more seriously than a string of Angus Reid marginal polls. And, in fact, from what I read, they are doing so.

  13. So looks like a 6% gap, the next poll should include the Ashcroft news.

  14. I did a prediction based on 39/33/17 with a 4% tcatical vote against labour, it showed the tories 4 short with 32 seats changing hands via TV. Probably enough for the tories to have a notional majority taking into account the SNP and sinn fein position.

  15. According to Andy Cooke’s model, a 6% lead would give a 74.2% probability of an overall Conservative majority and a 100% probability of the Tories being the largest party.

    {Type “Andy Cooke’s seat model” into Google to get the full chart}.

  16. @ Andrew Myers

    Seriously? So a 2 point lead (within the MOE of the several 6 point leads) is a rogue that can be ignored, whilst the 7 point lead (again, obviously within the MOE) shows a widening trend?

    It is pretty clear to me that the real lead at the moment is 6 points +-1. Rather than extrapolating further from the odd poll, accept that the lead has narrowed and look again later to see if there are any further shifts. At the moment, it looks fairly steady.

  17. Phew ! Good news for the toffs but a bit of work to do exposing all the non-dom, and in the Lib Dem case, criminal, donors to the other parties. In the interest of fair play I shall tell what I know. :-)

  18. Tonight’s YouGov poll may also be a rogue – we just don’t know as the 2% Tory lead poll was taken before the Tory weekend conference and tonight’s 7% lead was directly afterwards giving the Tories a post-conference bounce.

    According to PoliticalBetting tonight’s YouGov poll was taken from 5pm Sunday up until 5pm today.

    Presumably most of the interviews were taken before the Ashcroft story could be considered by those polled. We will need to really wait a few days and see where YouGov is towards the end of the week. There may well be a sharp reverse against the Tories in tomorrow night’s poll (Tuesday’s 1st editions of the headlines look terrible for the Tories). A more balanced picture should then be visible by the end of the week and the weekend.

  19. AW,

    It may be bad etiquette to say this openly, but could you please consider a ban on Kyle Downing? I can understand being upset with the sharp narrowing of the Tory lead (as I am sure you can) but there is really no place here for tin-foil hatted nonsense about corrupt practice by polling companies.

  20. The andy cooke model doesnt seem to take into account the level of support, just the lead.

  21. Brown was busy giving speeches at the weekend as well. Not sure any bounce is realistic – its down to sampling and weighting. labour have been hammering their core constituency with scares and promises of jam tomorrow.

    Down to chance. Look at the unweighted figures look at the way any WNVs and DKs are split. Then divide by the number you first thought of

    I wonder what the actual fractions of a percent work out at ?

    BBC reports point to massive cutbacks in local authorities due to – well no money left in the govt kitty.

  22. Either the 2% was nonsense, or Cameron’s Conference speech was worth 5 points.

    I’m inclined to the former .

    Either way, it settles some nerves -after putting some very useful frighteners under Cammo & his team.

    They must keep it up now:-

    Make Brown defend his record
    Correct all Labour “errors” on Tory policy
    Keep banging Cons key policies.

    Pound back up tomorrow? ;-)

  23. @AMBER STAR……….You would enjoy Mike Ashcrofts company, he is genuinely a nice guy, and he quaffs Champers.. :-)

  24. The Sun Says: “Seven Heaven for Dave”

    Whereas Skynews focuses on Comres (Hung Parliament with Brown in Number 10) and only alludes a bit to The Sun poll. Strange.

    “Only 20% – according to ComRes – think the Prime Minister is “an unpleasant bully” but 12% think David Cameron is”

    Curiouser and curiouser!

  25. Stalin versus Flashman?

  26. One interpetation is that Yougov has exaggerated Labour’s score by 2 points at the cost of the Lib Dems, thus Con 39 Lab 30 Lib Dems 19

    And the Comres has exaggerated Labour’s score by 2 points at the cost of the Cons, thus again Con 39 Lab 30 Lib Dems 19

    Polls have exaggerated Labour’s position in the past!

  27. Barry P

    “Not at all. A clear Tory majority if you consider the 150 (or was it 200) marginal results polled last week.”

    More double Dutch Barry P

    You are desperately clinging onto the ‘outlier’ AR polls and their fantastical marginal poll of 2,000 people across 150 seats (using the AR space cadet methodology) which would give the Tories over 455 seats if actually played out in an election!!! Not ho the country feels at the moment Mijneer.

    As was pointed out at that time by the overwhelming number of posters: on marginal polling let’s see some Mori/ CR and YG polls on the marginals- and expect their marginal swing to be much smaller than the AR swing as is the Tory lead versus the (still in double figures) AR Tory lead.

    Plus the marginal polls of any organisation will never project for anti Tory tactical voting.

    Try the EC model with the TV toll turned on and see what a tiny TV trend does. Not so comfy !

  28. @ David in France (hope you don’t mind, I assume you are David, not Daivd)

    “Something like the last 26 National Opinion Polls say you are wrong. So I hope the Conservatives are not being as complacent as you.”

    Just check the poll details of the marginals carried out last week. Factor that in with a natioanl 7% lead and, voila, a comfortable majority.

    That’s what I like to see, labour guys decrying the pollsters they don’t approve of.

    I am not in the slightest complacent. I know there is a lot of work still to do to convert the people who still can’t put all thier trust in DC but, we are getting there as these polls tonight show, coupled with that tremendous marginal poll last week

  29. I don’t know if the Tory mini-conference deserved a ”bounce” but if it did -I would expect it to be 1% .

    So that means after Ashcroftgate- the trend should accelerate and Labour will be in the lead by end of March!

    Any opinions?

  30. IMO this is the rogue and they will never see 7 again.

  31. I wonder if there will ever be a thread here that doesnt have at least one person deciding to pan AR. We cant prove them right or wrong till election night.

    Wait out

  32. @ Rob Sheffield

    “You are desperately clinging onto the ‘outlier’ AR polls and their fantastical marginal poll of 2,000 people across 150 seats (using the AR space cadet methodology) which would give the Tories over 455 seats if actually played out in an election!!! Not ho the country feels at the moment Mijneer.”

    So why not ask Anthony to remove AR from all his calculations? Go on, ask him!

    “More double Dutch Barry P”

    If plain English language is not your forte, it probably is double Dutch to you Rob. Sorry, I only know how to communicate in English, try it sometime, you might like it.

    These 2 results got you labor guys worried a little, Labour bounce pancaked possibly?!

  33. @ Sue Marsh

    “IMO this is the rogue and they will never see 7 again.”

    Not immediately but, the trend will now be upwards with of course a few peaks and troughs but, definitely upwards.

  34. @JOHN T T ………..What a synergetic pair, I can’t imagine them not getting on ! Now our pair of duellists….Gordon would probably turn and fire on the 9th pace, but he would miss due to his being optically challenged, Dave, the smoother, would take an Old Etonian gun club aim and drop Goliath where he stood. :-)

  35. @ BARRY P

    “Not immediately but, the trend will now be upwards with of course a few peaks and troughs but, definitely upwards.”

    ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)

  36. @Phillip W

    “One interpetation is that Yougov has exaggerated Labour’s score by 2 points at the cost of the Lib Dems, thus Con 39 Lab 30 Lib Dems 19 And the Comres has exaggerated Labour’s score by 2 points at the cost of the Cons, thus again Con 39 Lab 30 Lib Dems 19 Polls have exaggerated Labour’s position in the past!”

    Very strange- lets use this same logic but in order to produce an alternate outcome:

    “Another interpretation of YG is that the Tories have been exaggerated by 1% compared to the lib dems thus Con 38 Lab 32 LD 18 or that Comres has seen the Lib Dems exaggerated by 1% at the expense of the Tories hence Con 38 Lab 32 LD 18 again.” This figure is the average of tonight’s two polls (the latest two we have.

    Words ‘Nit’ and ‘picking’ come to mind.

    Tonight’s two polls taken together:

    Con 38
    Lab 32
    LD 18

    EC model projects
    Tories 295
    Labour 278
    Lib Dems 46

  37. Ken – I suspect being a gentleman bully, he’d bring a rapier or a cane to the gunfight :)

  38. Barry P

    “These 2 results got you labor guys worried a little, Labour bounce pancaked possibly?!”

    Class !

  39. @ Rob Sheffield

    “Class !”

    Recognition at last. Can go to bed a happy man now

  40. Anyone tempted to continue with tiresome arguments about whether Lord Paul is worse than Lord Ashcroft really should save the effort, since I’ll moderate the comments anyway. For the most part, all we need to know in order to get your opinion is which party you support.

  41. @JOHN T T ……….Touche !

  42. ” am not in the slightest complacent. I know there is a lot of work still to do to convert the people who still can’t put all thier trust in DC but, we are getting there as these polls tonight show, coupled with that tremendous marginal poll last week”

    Barry, there comes a point when you can be too biased to even be taken seriously.

    Let’s accept that the 2% was a rogue.Cameron has moved a point from 6% on one, and down from 7 to 5% on the other.

    They haven’t moved a jot from 6%, and any boost was probably just a jump up from the weekend conference, and will probably be back down to 6 by Wednesday.

    Either way, I think Brown will be truly thrilled with a 6% lead with a month to go

  43. Anthony,

    “For the most part, all we need to know in order to get your opinion is which party you support.”

    I support the SNP…..

    Peter.

  44. Ken – I’d be pleased with a “touche” but I don’t think it would be enough to win a duel with you, so I’ll quit while I’m ahead. Good-night! :)

  45. Peter – that’s OK as long as you live in the Black Isle and not off-shore, and your support is less than a couple of million over the last ten years.

  46. You know, let’s get to plain facts.

    Even a Hung Parliament with the tories as the biggest party is a complete and utter disaster for the tories,and a huge victory for Labour.

    A party going into their 4th term, in these circumstances, and they are still forcing hun parliaments, with a shout of even having more seats?

    As I said, Labour have to be pretty chuffed I’d say.

  47. You misunderstand me Barry – 7 will be the biggest gap the Tories achieve from now on. By late next week we will see a level poll.

  48. @ANTHONY…………..Sorry, The Widow Clicquot is having a mischievous influence on my comments. I’m off to bed. Goodnight.

  49. Sue

    Please tell me it’s real lol ;-)

    I hope you’re right – will it really end up with Labour in the lead?

    I would expect another drop in Tory support within the next few days due to Ashcroft – then it’ll be wait & see.

1 2 3 4