Scotland on Sunday has a new YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions tomorrow that shows Labour opening up a large lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intentions. The topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 38%, LDEM 15%, SNP 21%. Note that while the Scottish editions of the Sun have for the past couple of weeks been running figures based upon the aggregated and weighted Scottish data from the Sun’s daily YouGov polls, this was a dedicated full sized Scottish poll (though the smaller Scottish polls for the Scottish Sun have painted a very similar picture – Labour right up, with the SNP down close to the Conservatives).

Holyrood constituency figures are CON 16%, LAB 33%, LDEM 16%, SNP 28% – the article doesn’t refer to any Holyrood regional voting intentions. For what I think is the first time since he became First Minister Alex Salmond’s approval ratings have slipped into negative territory, with 36% thinking he is doing a good job and 38% a bad job.

There is as yet no sign of today’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll.


21 Responses to “SNP down in Scottish YouGov poll”

  1. Salmond has had a tough couple of weeks over Nicola Sturgeon’s letter urging leniency for a fraudster, which saw him manifestly distort the meaning of the code of conduct. He deploys a very ‘cheeky chappy’ and counter-attacking style whenever criticized at FMQs which works so long as the public sees the criticism of his government as just party politicking, but is dangerous if the public regards the questions as serious.

    The reports that the convicted Lockerbie bomber* is in rude health and has beaten cancer are also going to be unhelpful.

    * Only he never done it

  2. I think Mr salmond should have concentrated on his home form rather than trying to get dodgy awaywins. He now pays the price.

  3. The Scottish Westminster figures represent these changes since 2005:

    Lab: -1.5%
    SNP: +3.3%
    C: +4.2%
    LD: -7.6%

  4. Comments on pb.com are reporting the YouGov/ST poll as 39/33/17

    (though there seems to be some uncertainty if it’s the new figures, as the numbers look the same as last week’s)

  5. On the Electoral Calculus website thingy, using the Regional Predictor that would translate into a national wide vote, something along the lines of;

    Con: 38.2%
    Lab: 29.3%
    Lib Dem: 19.2%

  6. LATEST POLL CON 37 LAB 35 :)

  7. latest poll as in the yougov for the sunday times ya ya!
    the conservative vote would not be that low

  8. These figures are very good news for Labour & give little encouragement to the other main parties. The Conservatives would obviously be pleased to be as close as they are to the SNP, but in fact wouldn’t gain any seats from them (not quite) and would be in a dead heat with Labour in Dumfries & Galloway. The Lib Dems wouldn’t actually lose any seats despite the big drop in support, except their by-election gain (to Labour). Labour would lose only 1 seat to the SNP, Ochil & S Perthshire and would hold on to Edinburgh S and Dundee W as well as retaking Glasgow E. So precious few seats in Scotland would change hands if this poll were to be borne out.

  9. Richard is that definite? If so, Labour would be clearly the largest party if that were seen in an UNS and not a million miles away from a majority. And of course the Labour vote would have recovered almost back to its 2005 level. The Tories will be praying that their weekend conference works for them; nothing else has for several weeks.

  10. Yes Barnaby and you’re right there!

  11. David Boothroyd, my (admittedly limited) understanding from comments from some physicians is that you simply do not beat the type of cancer that al-Megrahi has. Being alive 3 months past a most likely projected life expectancy and being in “rude health” are quite different.

    The SNP had one heck of a lot of mud slung at them over the last month and not just the Sturgeon letter. Labour was hoping for major scandals but the SNP just hasn’t cooperated. They’re doing well, especially in the face of the remarkably hostile Scottish press, in not having actually gone below the 2005 figures instead of still being 3 points up from it. With the supposed scandals now relegated to the dustbin, it’s a question of whether or how fast they can recover and if Labour and their tame press can find something new to label a “gate” (perhaps a gate-gate)/

    So we’ll have to see how the next few weeks look. I wouldn’t in the least assume that the polls the last few weeks will be the end of the story.

  12. I’m just reporting what al-Megrahi’s family have said to the press.

  13. Don’t think that the Tories should despair with this poll
    just watch they’ll win at least one seat maybe two come the GE

  14. Rather telling that the add that appears next to the article about Labours resurrection say’s “What will happen in 2010? With your birthdate, I can tell.”

    Maybe Yougov should start employing some astrologers? There claims could never be as fantastic as recent poll numbers.

  15. I’m an English voter so do not normally stray into this territory, but surely Salmond’s credibility was damaged by his Arc of prosperity speech. I guess voters dont want to go the way of Ireland and Iceland!

  16. No, Salmond was not damaged particularly with that. The weakness of the UK economy kept that from being a telling criticism.

    Salmond’s slip in the polls was quite recent. There has been a considerable spate of mudslinging but this is hardly the forum since discussing it.

    What I would like to know is whether the tables for this poll have been released. Since I am very suspicious of the validity of the weighting, I want to see the unweighted numbers.

  17. Conservatives climb to 20% in Scotland and we are expected to believe they are slipping in England?

  18. Latest ipsos Mori poll for the Times (March 1) is irreconcilable with YouGov;

    Labour 34, SNP 32 , Tories 16 LibDems 12

  19. The reasons stated for the apparent dip in SNP fortunes are all sensible and probably have more than a grain of truth in thm.

    However, what about the reason that, so it would seem, dare not speak its name.

    Independence.

    Maybe, just maybe, this is a reaction to the SNP, in support of what the Unionist parties are saying ad infinitum.

    “its not wanted, and its the wrong time”.

    Perhaps the populace is getting tired of being told to think this than and the other by Mr Salmond, and would in fact rather he get on with looking after the schools and hospitals, than worrying about vanity projects which even the dimmest political animal could tell you, was doomed to failure.

  20. @trevorsden – it’s entirely plausible to see the tories rise slightly in Scotland in apparent contradiction of the UK polls – it’s basically their cut of the squeeze on SNP poll ratings. Perhaps it’s odd to some folk, but there are voters out there who would switch between these parties – there is such a thing as an “anyone but Labour” voter in Scotland, and they might prioritise that ahead of such esoteric things as the Union Jack.

    As to the poll, well it’s predictable that many Scots voters will be led by the “you have to vote Labour to stop the Tories” mantra that will be pushed by the Scottish media between now and the election – it’s a classic squeeze in 2-party politics. What is interesting is the landscape after that: if we revert to the pre-1997 position, with Scotland sending huge numbers of Labour MPs south to sit in Opposition, what will happen at Holyrood in 2011?

    The only bad scenario for Salmond, really, is a decent Labour win.

  21. I think the difference between the figures given in the IPSOS MORI poll and the YouGov one may be explained by the fact that the former relates to those who will definately vote and the latter does not.
    I am not entirely sure what the Yougov figures relate to or what if any weightings were used by that organisation in compiling them.
    Does anyone know for sure?
    I suspect the IPSOS MORI one wil be the more acccurate prediction of the actual outcome.