There are two discussion threads for the new poll – please keep partisan arguments, whoops of delight and furious rants of despair to this one. Sensible non-partisan discussion of the poll is welcomed in the main thread :)


251 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times poll open thread”

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  1. Cameron has just given the Labour Party it’s best attack line ever.

    “Gordon Brown says I’m a bit of a salesman.I plead guilty”.

    Is there a Labour plant now writing his speeches?

    http://redrag1.blogspot.com/2010/02/red-rag-with-one-line-cameron-balls-up.html

  2. Alley Cat – Transigental? Sorry, I don’t speak Gibberish.

    Dave did well didn’t he? Speaking in sentences and all without notes. Walking up and down without anyone to help him. Not a word of substance, but still, he’s definitely got what it takes.

  3. Hi Sue Jay & co & Amber if you’re around ;-)

    You’ve got to laugh Cameron said;-
    **I want you to think of the incredible dark depression of another 5 years of Gordon Brown **

    And half the shadow cabinet were laughing on stage behind him as he said it.

    I wasn’t impressed. The speech was vague and the only policy pledge was linking pensions to earnings – which labour has already promised.

    Anthony has kindly given the go-ahead for us to have regular polling predictions up to the election.
    I suggest we hold them on Sunday evenings so we can all have time to digest the latest week -end polls. Now that I have started a spreadsheet it should take just a matter of minutes to give the result of our collective effort.

    If everybody could descend on Anthony’s site during certain hours on a Sunday evening I could collect the data and post the average at a given time. Any suggestions on the timing?

    It is just a bit of fun – so I hope everyone will join in. If required I could post all contributors predictions at the same time so we can see it as a table.

  4. SUE MARSH – I completely agree with your point that the genuinely disabled are frequently, and unjustly, denied the DLA that they need and deserve. I have witnessed this myself also, and it is one of the reasons that I feel as strongly as I do about fraudulent claims. I was not suggesting that ALL claims are dishonestly made – very many are most certainly not. But some – and it’s not a small number – are.

    JAY BLANC – same point, a least until the end of your second paragraph. But then you veer off into another of your ‘I know what you think’ moments. You don’t. I no-where say that ‘people’ who claim DLA ‘don’t deserve it, but I do say that alongside genuine claimants, there are a large number of fraudulent ones, and that is true.
    And I said nothing about people needing to be wheelchair bound, or missing a limb, in order to have genuine mobility are care needs, nor do I deny that there are ‘hidden disabled’ who need support.

    But I do say that there are a large number of unfounded claims. Because it’s the truth.

  5. The duality of thought. Both Jays making good points.

  6. Dan – hope you’re enjoying monthly rental payments if you’re a retailer.

    Hope you’re clinging on to the reasonable possibility of improving yields if you’re on the mangement/landlord side!

  7. Might be worth pointing out that the £498 figure is gross, not net, by the time the taxman’s taken his share the average net weekly income will be in the low £300s.

  8. @ JOHN TT

    I am just hoping to cling on!

    I don’t normally comment on the site, although I have been watching it for sometime. I have to say this election will be an interesting one! I am relatively young so to be honest this is the first time since 1997 I have taken much interest…

  9. Danbuck – I’m sure that’s true for a lot of people, and largely this site is civilised and erudite ( some of the best threads are relatively short ones with very little partisan point-scoring)

    Here’s to an election that actually engages people

  10. Can I just say one has to be very careful when trying to identify people who are sick.

    My cousin is a teacher -she has ME. She is better now but has bad days and good days. On her bad days she can hardly get out of bed -though her condition has improved it doesn’t get that bad so often now.

    The problem is -that you would only see her out of doors and lookin ”healthy” when she was feeling ok ish. Obviously this means that you wouldn’t see her when she was really bad.

    Herinles the problem for the sick -they get frightened to go out for fear of being labled ”scroungers” -which in turn delays their recovery.

    Another point is we all know people who attack others at a drop of a hat. They don’t have the empathy to see how damaging their attacks are. It would be nice of some people take a little more time to think things through first.

  11. Was just about to make the same point, JAMESB, but you beat me to it.

    Not quite the £500 per week income originally suggested

  12. @ JOHN TT

    Completely Agree!

  13. Well, all you socialists out there; let’s see how long it is before the IMF calls time on our country if Gordon ‘in denial’ Brown takes us back to the bad old days of Healy et al. Autserity Britain from Us honest Conservatives, or lies and then the same with the kick in the guts for those of us who work for a living paying for it. The country can choose. And if they choose the party that lied us into the most immoral war we have entered in more than a century, that took us to the brink of bankruptcy, glorying in the market that made them, then holding their hands up in innocence when it bit back whilst they sat on their hands, if they choose the party that is drip by drip taking away their freedom and controlling every move they make, then they truly are fools…and AS MR.T SAID ‘PITY THE FOOL.,’

  14. @ Andrew Granger – OR – GB’s plans DO lead us and the rest of the world who adopted them out of recession, they lower the deficit and employment rises. Growth returns.
    Didn’t help Major much though, so you still may get your day.

  15. andrew myers:

    Are you auditioning for the role of a bigot or are you really as nasty as your posts? Do you actually KNOW what Stalin did? Do you really think a direct comparison betweeen Stalin and Gordon Brown is acceptable, morally or intellectually?

    Please don’t bother to reply: “I won’t be quiet!” because I’m not asking you to: you make yourself appear more ludicrous with each successive post.

  16. @ Al J

    Where are you holding your poll prediction meet?

    Is there going to be a dedicated thread each Sunday?

  17. @ Andrew Grainger

    Don’t try and incinuate that Cons are honest and hard working and Labour are not. I know alot of Labour supporters who work their fingers to the bone every day for very little money.. The reason.. two decades of Tory education policies..

  18. Sue -Paul -Andrew-Andrew

    Anthony says he’s happy to open a special thread for our election predictions -but we need to establish how many of us are in favour of taking part.

    If it happens -please can we do it on Sundays -though any other day is ok too. ;-)

  19. AL J (and JAY BLANC too)

    I would like to emphasize that I am NOT suggestng that everyone who is not ‘obviously’ unwell is thereby a ‘scrounger’ (not a word I would ever use). That would be an appallingly naive, not to say incredibly spiteful and mean spirited, belief.

    The basis for my position arises from having worked closely with a substantial number of people (rather than a ‘glance-from-a-distance-in-which-people-look-healthy-but-are-ubeknownst-to-me-profoundly-sick’ perspective) many of whom have (successfully) made claims for DLA, when there is absolutely no basis for such a claim.

    I certainly would not want to cause any distress, or impute any bad motive, to those who really do need support. I absolutely believe in a robust benefits system, it’s just that I am appalled at how easily the system we have at the moment can be abused. That’s all.

  20. The narrowing of the lead hasnt happened overnight, its been happening since conference. All you bloggers kept dismissing 1 point gains as little significance!! now look.. panic stations!! hehe :-)

  21. Sunday is good! or thursday which is ‘election day’?

  22. @ Al J

    Definitely in favour here – will be with you every Sunday.

    Current prediction is C39:L31:LD20

  23. Jay & Nayl

    hope you’ll be in favour of our polling prediction night too

    If I haven’t explained it properly -it will be the %’s for each party we think they’ll get at the GE.

    If it takes off -perhaps we could guess each week and have a collective average to give us a special weekly prediction -just a bit of fun ;-)

  24. Andrew M

    Thanks for being so eager ;-)

    I think we need to give Anthony an idea of how many of us want it first. How do we do that? lol

  25. we starting now? or are you going to make us wait a whole week?????

  26. Anthony

    Can we have a flutter tonight ?-not many of us around but it could just be some fun for a couple of hours.

    I could get my sheet up and running in a couple of minutes.

    Naylor _I have to ask Anthony -we just wait for his reply

    ;-)

  27. “Ah, fun…… [as Basil Fawlty mused] …..I remember that.”

    And it didn’t used to be guessing percentages; nevertheless, count me in Al if that’s the best thing going.

  28. By the way Al, now your best mates with Anthony, how about suggesting a prize for the winner? [I’m quietly confident.]

    A big box of chocolates would be nice.

  29. The only poll that matters is the official one, and these opinion polls can be terribly unreliable. However, the trend shows that rather than just voicing anti-government sentiment (unsurprising given the recession, Iraq etc) people are now seriously thinking who would make the better government, and for all their faults, for many, Labour seem preferable. Brown’s decisiveness prevented the credit crunch becoming meltdown. Cameron and Osborne change their message more often than their underpants and seem gimmicky in comparison.

  30. Anthony

    Please -can we have a flutter with a poll projection on this thread just for tonight ?-not many of us around I don’t think

    Paul
    **By the way Al, now your best mates with Anthony, how about suggesting a prize for the winner? [I’m quietly confident.]**

    **A big box of chocolates would be nice**

    lol A nice bottle of champers to celebrate GE night would be nice

  31. Im off to sleep, early morning training run :-)

    But before I go.. my winning prediction:

    Con 35
    Lab 35
    LD 20

    :-)

  32. I predict C35, L35, Lib 20. Minority Labour Government.

  33. That was spooky!

  34. haha like your style derek

  35. great minds think alike – you must be a Labour supporter

  36. Al – I thought you had been!

  37. Is it ok then? -been waiiting for your permission

  38. Maybe the Tories will publish some policies and the lead will open again.

    A huge mistake to think they could buy an election on millionnaire money and advertising then draw up policies after they take the keys.

    Voters are fed up being treated as election comodities to be bought on voter indexes.

  39. @Danbuck

    In your post of February 28th, 2010 at 7:41 pm, you said “…I tried to discuss in a polite and sensible manner last night regarding the issue with the public sector…”. Fair point. So let’s go.

    The debt is so large (and increasing) that the public sector will have to be cut, and cut dramatically, whoever gets in. Neither Labour nor Conservative parties are coping well with this reality.

    The Labour Party make two misconceptions: that everybody who earns more than me (for a given definition of “me”) is a greedy fatcat, and that the public sector can be left largely untouched. These two points are not true.

    The Conservative Party make two misconceptions: that everybody who earns less than me (for a given definition of “me”) is lazy/workshy, and that the public sector can be adequately shrunk by cutting quangos, welfare layabouts, the usual suspects. These two points are not true.

    The debt is so humungeously, ginormously big that we may have to invent new numbers to handle it. The cuts to reduce it will not just cut fat, but muscle and bone. Those words – “muscle”, “bone” – are euphenisms for people’s lives: people who go to work each day, obey the law, pay their taxes, love their children, say their prayers at night. If they worked in the private sector, there would be HR departments or SME bosses to break their loss to them: it would be quick, brutal, but dispassionate. But they don’t work for the private sector, they work in the public sector. So they’ll be lulled into a false sense of security by a Labour administration and ultimately let down, or kicked out by a Conservative administration and told that they’re rubbish in the process. In either outcome, the executive of the UK Government – the highest office that a person not of noble birth can aspire to – will handle the situation with less dignity than a 19-yr old school leaver with 3 weeks HR training and acne.

    This is the reason why the Conservative Party is so low in the polls, and the Labour Party even lower. We sympathise, we know that government is not an easy job.

    But we don’t think the parties are up to it.

  40. Naylor & Derek

    That was funny

    I’ll have to change mine too I think -you Labour guys & gals are leaving me behind lol ;-)

  41. There is always a rogue poll running up to a General Election. I don’t think Brown has the bottle to go earlier than May. I expect a Tory majority of about 30 – 40 seats. :(

  42. Dunno what’s going on, but from a purely personal perspective here’s my take. I’m a classic Labour supporter having grown up on a council estate in a poor London borough. I vote Blair in 97 and became so disillusioned at what followed I haven’t voted since. But, now there is a real threat of a Tory government, I will be turning out at the GE to support Brown just to feel it won’t be my fault if Cameron does get in.

  43. @ MARTYN…………………..Think of all the things that we can do without and be happier for it ! I’m quite looking forward to our financial judgement day. :-)

  44. Labour victory predicted 13 seat majority.

  45. With a grand total of 3 people;-

    Derek P -Naylor -Andrew M

    We have the following averages ;-)

    Con 36.33% Seats 261
    Lab 33.67% Seats 306
    LD 20 % Seats 52

    Hung Lab 20 Seats short

    Sorry it didn’t get off the ground tonight -perhaps next time. I didn’t include my %’s. & thanks David C – although your prediction is great – I couldn’t include it in the %’s. ;-)

  46. Many times polls have indicated a Hung parliament, but it has only happened twice in 81 years. Sorry Labour supporters, it aint going to happen.

  47. The owner of YouGov happens to be married to a Labour apparachik who has just been catapulted from a richly -deserved obscurity into a high-profile EU sinecure, her performance in which is hardly enhancing her reputation. Meanwhile, YouGov has changed it’s methodology, and suddenly Labour are showing large gains. Don’t get too excited, boys and girls. Just remember, if you torture numbers in the right way, they’ll tell you anything.

  48. To those who say the benifit system isn’t a way of life chosen by manay go and work in the great council estates and offer them a job on £9 an hour. See how many turn up for an interview.

    As for the fine, this was a telephone conversation. I recieved the update pack, “if you don’t fill it in, we won’t renew it” so I didn’t. Then they didn’t stop it, so I rung them and offered to pay them bak the £10. The chap on the phone said they would levy a charge of around £200 for a false claim. This is all rubbish and he must of been spouting, so i renewed over the phone, for which the cost of the 4 copies of the renewal form and the telephone call outweigh the money we recieve.

    On this point all I am saying is balance the tax system so that you increase the basic allowance and offset this by lowering the top allowance. Do the maths and it would be cost neutral but without all the forms and beurocracy therefore saving money.

    Incendentally, I know 4 people who live around me who currently recieve benifits, even though they all have joint incomes of over £50K per annum. its all about knowing how to play the system.

    For those who say I am doing down a lot of people and no better, no i don’t. but I was brought up and raised in a maisonette in a council estate in redcar. If i go back, the estate is gone. But the newer council estate houses come with broadband and statalite TV and the people I know still there have foreign holidays every year. Most have never worked ( officiailly ) and state openly they never will. This in my estimate from personal experiance is around 30% of these people. oh and one of them recieves over £700 per week for the whole family, nice little tax free earner. Although to be fair £200 of this is a cash in hand job he obviously doesn’t have.

    No of the rebutals are from people who live and work with these peopel, who spunge the benifit system at the expense of those in genuine need willing to contribute.

  49. @ RED RAG

    In case you need reminding

    Up until 1997 The Sun was a Conservative supporting newspaper. After 18 years of Tory government, the last 5 years being totally powerless, it decided to agree with the sentiment that Britain needed a change.
    It leant its support to Labour becauase Blair broadened the party’s appeal. It never supported Kinnock, it never supported Foot, it never supported Callaghan. It is therefore totally reasonable that the paper would totally reject Gordon Brown and back Cameron.
    A number of Labour MP’s have been openly critical of the Sun’s decision.
    Well, like yourself, i suggest they go back to reading The Mirror.

  50. ‘SIMONK
    To those who say the benifit system isn’t a way of life chosen by manay go and work in the great council estates and offer them a job on £9 an hour. See how many turn up for an interview.’

    And they are also the ones who complain when hardworking migrants do turn up for the jobs and start picking fruit at 5 am for a 12 hour day, so allowing the locals to be lazy complainers…

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