There are two discussion threads for the new poll – please keep partisan arguments, whoops of delight and furious rants of despair to this one. Sensible non-partisan discussion of the poll is welcomed in the main thread :)


251 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times poll open thread”

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  1. As I said, Coulson and Osborne have won the battle on who’s in charge of the election campaign. The problem for the Tories is that Coulson and Osborne are prescribing trepanation for a headache.

  2. @ MIKE N

    He did not mention the bank shares. Well spotted.

    I agree, it might be a policy but it’s not a vote winner; we are wise to CONS selling off at a discount things that belong to us, the tax-payers.

  3. @ MIKE N

    RE: It sounds like DC is attempting to shore up the CON core vote?!

    —————————-

    That’s exactly what it sounded like.

    It’s being reported as Cameron promises to “Cut immigration & support the NHS”

    Ho hum.

  4. If Brown calls an election for mid April, he might have a chance, but when the dire economic figures com out for the first quarter, the game will be up.

    Lets not forget the 0.3% growth in the final quarter of 2009 was seasonal in the run up to Christmas on the back of 50 billion borrowed. The country is effectively on a treadmill using energy but going nowhere. Eventually the runner gets tired.

    Britain cannot afford Brown and the sooner you union members, public sector employees, workshy welfare claimants realise this, the better.

  5. @David

    I agree with you completely. But don’t forget that not all public sector workers and union members favour Labour/Lib Dems. I happen to fit into both categories, and Labour has made my job very difficult, to say the least.

    Although in the minority for public sector workers who may be union members, I have never voted Labour/Lib Dem/fringe party, and never will. I will always be a Conservative, along with some other colleagues of mine. We just have to keep quiet in the office, and remain closet Tories around our liberal colleagues!

  6. @David
    …you union members, public sector employees, workshy welfare claimants realise this, the better

    I am none of these David.

    I just think Labour has its heart in the right place. And that Conservatism has no heart.

  7. @ David – well said & glad there are still one or two people who understand the dire state this country is in amongst the gloaters who appear to have crawled out of the woodwork off the back of the 2 point rogue poll.

    This country is being run like a household where the main breadwinner has lost his/her job but is still living the lifestyle by remortgaging the house and maxing out the credit cards. Sooner or later the finance will run out, the lifestyle will end and the house will get repossessed.

    But I guess that is a difficult concept for those who have never worked in the commercial world to understand.

  8. IT’S WASHING DAY FOR THE TORY PAST,
    BUT SOME STAINS STICK, AND SEEM TO LAST!!!

  9. @ DAVID

    RE: the sooner you union members, public sector employees, workshy welfare claimants realise this, the better.
    ——————————-
    I am none of these. But neither will I stand idly by while you talk down union members, public sector workers & those who are unemployed (the majority are not ‘workshy’.

    Your disdain for many ordinary workers of this country is reflected by the party you support.

    That’s why voters are losing interest in the Tory party.

  10. So Mike N, why has the gap between rich and poor got wider under Labour? Why are Labour killing off small business? Labour have been responsible for the continuing moral decline in this country being anti-family and paying couples to live apart.

    We have a prison populuation going out of control. We cannot go on supporting so many hangers on in the system. No sorry Mike N, Labour forgot social justice long ago and only social engineer now.

    As for you Jay, what are you doing being a union member? Whether you like it or not, you are supporting Labour with your union donations. Unions are a relic from history to protect people who could not get a job elsewhere. Unions are for people who are insecure in their job – if you are insecure then look for another one.

    By the way, I am working class in that I work hard. If I get sacked, I am employable elsewhere – I left my union years ago.

  11. @David

    I second Ambers comment

    **I am none of these. But neither will I stand idly by while you talk down union members, public sector workers & those who are unemployed (the majority are not ‘workshy’.**

    I’ve never been jobless in my life and worked for both private and public sectrors. I would never talk about hard working people as you do David.

    Luckily people are waking up to you and your party’s view on ordinary people and you are deservedly losing support.

    **Your disdain for many ordinary workers of this country is reflected by the party you support.**

    Amber spot on. ;-)

    That’s why voters are losing interest in the Tory party.

  12. @David

    Thank you for confirming the mindset of Conservatives.

  13. David, I think you’ll be surprised to know that my union (The UCU) is not affiliated with the Labour Party, and no money raised from its members is used to fund any political party. It’s political fund fincances campaigns and lobbies; I have always chosen to opt out of the contribution to that fund as a security measure!

    As for job insecurity, my job is very secure, although I thank you for assuming otherwise.

  14. And apologies for the typos!

  15. @Mike N

    And there in lies a large part of the Tory party. Like Jay (Chiswick), there are many public sector workers, union members, those who are in receipt of benifits, etc, who are not natural Labour supporters, in fact they are many who are politically non tribal. The fact that by dint of their job, the fact that they are union members, their personal circumstances, etc, they, the Tories, believe these potential voters deserve the denigration heaped upon them by Tory supporters in blogs, on forums, and in the MSM

  16. @ David

    I reiterate – I think your comments are spot on. I think that some of the “hangers on” you describe are worrying that their subsidised lifestyle at the expense of those who do go to work will soon come to an end, hence the slight temporary boost in Labour support.

    I wonder how much more money that we don’t have Brown is planning to squander in the next parliament in the horrific scenario where he wins a majority?

  17. So you concluded that I am a Tory. Well although I think the Tories are the lesser of the two evils, I am more in line with UKIP or the English Democrats. In fact I would tactically vote for a donkey if it meant kicking out my local incompetent Labour MP who is in a relatively safe seat. Cameron and the Tories wouldn’t dare make the changes really needed to turn this country round good and proper. Instead, its a slow steady decline of a once great nation.

    Sorry Jay, checked out the UCU. Still don’t see the point of it!

  18. Oh dear god.
    My faith in the British public is plummeting.
    How can they support Labour in the current conditions.

    I still pray and hope that this worrying decline will reverse for this depressing prophecy for the future.

  19. This is fantastic news. Dave’s mask is coming off and people are beginning to see the Tories for what they are….TOFF’s. They are so out of touch with the British public.

  20. Hi Guys……………Just got in and am astonished by all the flag-waving hysteria on this site, I must have missed Tony walking up Downing St again. Has someone won something ? The bigger the cat, the bigger the bounce! :-)

  21. @Jay (Chiswick)

    Dave (February 28th, 2010 at 3:29 pm) said that “…the sooner you union members, public sector employees, workshy welfare claimants realise this, the better…”

    You responded (February 28th, 2010 at 3:36 pm) by saying that “…don’t forget that not all public sector workers and union members favour Labour/Lib Dems…I have never voted Labour/Lib Dem/fringe party, and never will. I will always be a Conservative…”

    Jay, you need to understand this. According to Dave, you are inferior ex officio. Attempting to negotiate with him by saying the equivalent of “…but I’m nice! Please don’t hurt me! I’M ONE OF YOU! THERE MUST BE SOME MISTAKE!…” is pointless: he isn’t negotiating with you and will hurt you regardless. How will it feel to vote for a party that thinks you’re employmentally subnormal and *will* terminate you, regardless of how prettily you beg?

    I’m being serious here: it’s your life, vote accordingly. It’s entirely noble to lay down one’s job to further the country’s prospects. But don’t imagine you’ll be thanked for your sacrifice; you will be classified as inferior and fired accordingly. Attempting to negotiate with them is futile: THEY DON’T LIKE YOU.

    If you still think I’m joking, go look at the conservativehome blogs, with especial reference to the comments. Go tell them you work in the public sector and are a member of an union. See if you get out of there with your skin still on.

  22. Blimey

    I had a bet last summer that Tories would be the largest party, but not have an out right majority. I said goodbye to my stake over the autumn. Recently I thought I was on to a winner. Now it could be a Labour Govt so I might lose a tenner!.
    I dont mind tho’. Yee Hai!!!

  23. Perhaps when you Labour voters have finished crowing, you might like to read the story in today’s Telegraph regarding the infiltration of the Labour Party by members of a hardline Islamist movement who would very much like to see Sharia Law introduced here. They have practically taken over Tower Hamlets apparently. Does this suit you?

  24. This is some reading….

    There are so many people who live in some form of idealistic bubble….

    The majority of the unemployed in this country do not want to work. I count incapacity benefit ( and similar benefit seekers ) in this category.

    Why would you want to work? If you know the system you can earn far more than minimum wage on benefits.

    Work with the great unwashed in the great council estates in Stocken, Bolton, Middlesbrough, Glasgow, Bristol etc etc….. You would soon discover that a majority (but not all by any means) have no intention of working at all and those of you who think they do are living in a dream world. Go and work in these communities. Of course it is not in the interests of the current ruling party to change this either after all turkeys rarely vote for Christmas.

    If you have never worked in these area don’t comment on the subject as you know nothing.

    We regularly have people sent to the company I work for from the job centre and most either call in “ill” don’t turn up or even state in the interview they only turn up to keep their benefits.

    Of course you need to remember that you do not have to take a job if you would lose out on benefits.

    I will vote for any party of any persuasion which promises the following :

    1) Maximise the amount of state benefit at 75% of national average wage

    2) Abolishes the human rights act or at least changes its place in the stature book to place victims first.

    3) Removes the tax credit system. As it takes over 1Bn to manage, just don’t take it in the first place. I would quite happily pay a bit more tax at the top end if it means we can save that 1bn and distribute it back at the bottom. I am not saying make anyone worse off but don’t spend all the cash on administration.

    Oh and I tried to stop claiming tax credits because I don’t believe in them, get this they tried to levy a fine ! That didn’t work…..

    My old teacher said, “If you vote conservative you have no heart, and if you vote labour you have no brain”

  25. Tee hee [email protected] Ken, Dave, SimonK – I thought THIS thread was for a bit of jubilation/disgust? The other one is for serious comment???

    To the above – I’m a champagne swilling stockbroker who thinks Gerogie is a disaster and GB rather clever – lots like me I’m afraid.

    @ Amber – Speech quite good, but not good enough IMO. Point is, voters need to believe it!!

  26. @ ANDREW MYERS
    @ DAVID

    I think your spot on with your remarks.

    I tried to discuss in a polite and sensible manner last night regarding the issue with the public sector. Its simple no matter what people say the private sector generally have been through the pain and cut costs, cut payroll if required to cope with the longest recession in our history.
    I am afraid the public sector has not, which is why they generally live on a different planet. This is such a shame as if they were told upfront that there will be the need for belt tightening there would not be such outrage in the public sector at the thought of having a pay freeze. This is reality in the private sector.
    The idea that you spend your way out of a recession is nonsense as eventually the money runs out and the same problems are left. The spending only puts off the inevitable.

  27. Spot on SimonK – I have worked in this area and my experience completely confirms your description.

    Someone recently wondered why it is that the electorate are so blind to a government that is seeks to ‘bribe us with our own money’.

    Part of the answer is that the Labour Party despise and mistrust the British people – they will do all they can to turn free voters into dependent clients.

    How on earth has the United Kingdom descended to this?

  28. @SUE MARSH………..I don’t need a reason to keep swilling, all is well in the world of real imbibers ! Cheers! :-)

  29. OOOOh if only Labour would win! I would be so pleeeeeesed! Get a life for gods sake! It will be the end of us! But of course you know that dont you? It will be the continuation of YOU! Labour offisionatats,. You know best don’t you? We are just putty/playdough in your hands eh? The Socialist dream goes on! Brown the provider, and BIG brother will solve all our problems, Hoooray, like 500,000 others, I shall be off if he wins. You’ll be sooooooorrrrryyyy!!!

  30. I don’t agree with many of the comments above:-

    1. The latest YouGov poll was good news for the Tories. It has meant that Dave’s speech has got a lot more media attention.

    2. There are a lot of unanswered questions about the poll result.

    3. If the Tories now recover a bit in the polls then Dave will get more credit for this than would have occurred without the poll result.

  31. @ MIKE

    I think your right. One poll suggesting the gap has narrowed to two points and the media has a field day. This is obvious to sell papers etc, but I think you may be right that it puts the Conservative’s on the front foot and DC just now needs to keep the momentum going.

  32. 2. There are a lot of unanswered questions about the poll result.

    Eh? Like what?

    You’re right about the extra focus on Dave, but I’m not sure about the effect.

  33. Let’s win it for Britain! Let’s win it for Eton! Let’s win it for the wealthy! Let’s win it for fox-hunting! Let’s win it for those in Notting Hill who are burdened by inheritance tax. Let’s win it for the Bullingdon Club! Let’s win it for me before those nasty people behind m e can knife me in the back!

    Dave

  34. Yes Mike, to some extent I agree. If you check out the detail of the YouGov poll, the Tories are well up in the South, Midlands and Wales where many of the marginals are.

    Also whatever the polls say, Labour’s actual exit poll is always 3 or 4% less than the polls leading up to it. Remember 2005 – Labour were polling at 40%, but that dropped to 36% on the actual day. Same in 1997 – despite the landslide, they could have won even more.

  35. BB. Class war won’t get you anywhere – remember Crewe and Nantwich.

  36. @SimonK

    Good lord, first you accuse others of living in an ideological bubble, then you think that people on Benefits get anything close to the national average wage.

    At most an unemployed claimant will get perhaps £200 a week, across JSA and Housing, perhaps higher if you live in an area with high rents. If you’re on Incapacity you might do better and get up to £300. The national average wage is £500

    The only claimants who get anything close to that, are those who get the higher rates of Disability Living Allowance. Which is *not* easy to get, with the majority of claims being denied unless it’s someone obviously profoundly disabled, and those who appeal need to get legal assistance and present their own medical evidence.

    No Simon, they didn’t levy a fine because you asked to stop getting tax credits. They changed your tax code for the year to a different one, per your request, so expected you to pay up the difference in taxes that would mean on what would have been paid that year.

    Frankly, you’re why I wouldn’t consider voting Conservative. Because the party is still dominated by those who think they are smarter than the rest of the hoi poli, without actually being so. The likes of whom think an ‘Unemployed Shipyard Welder’ is an uneducated slob, when they almost certainly spent more time and money on their education and certification than someone who got a undergraduates diploma and works in an office.

    Frankly, most of the Conservative supporting comments in this thread all read like you just copy pasted bits from a Daily Mail editorial, without having to bother your brain with investigating if what was said is true or not.

    For a party that doesn’t want a ‘Class War’ in this election, their supporters are doing a great job of starting one by calling Labour supporters work-shy benefits cheats or gold-brick civil servants.

  37. Get real! Brown is out! BB what a transigental reverse! Tories 66 Majority!

  38. @ Alleycat – Byeeeeeee then, never missed Phil Collins

    @ Ken – Cheers (hic) you and Roland are Gentlemen

    @ Danbuck – “This is obvious to sell papers etc, but I think you may be right that it puts the Conservative’s on the front foot and DC just now needs to keep the momentum going”. – Come on now – optimism is one thing…..

  39. @ Jay Blanc – flippin brilliantly said. I hope I seek truth wherever it may be found and admit when I’m wrong. you just took the words out of my mouth (but expressed them better) about some of the “stalin” “Hitler” “denial” posts I’ve read.

  40. @ SUE MARSH

    Well optimism is a good thing in my opinion. You never know! I do find it funny how the Labour leaning of those commentating have seen one poll and think everything is wonderful in the UK. I just look at posts earlier….

    I think the Conservatives are being treated like the government in the press, certainly considering as the GB government seems to ignore the fact – cuts are required. A good example is Yvette Cooper earlier; in response to DC’s speech, she stated we are the party of investment and will not allow benefits to be cut from middle income families. So where will Labour’s cut’s fall?

    I am not saying for one minute the Conservatives have been detailed enough but lets be honest why should they. They are the opposition – about time the government should act responsible and detail cuts. This eye wash about we will cut the deficit and put it in law – so what – does not mean its going to happen?

  41. JAY BLANC – if you think that Disability Living Allowance is not easy to get, then you simply betray how woefully out of touch you are.

    In the course of my work I have met more people than I can keep track of who are in receipt of DLA (including at higher rate), despite their claim to such being transparently fraudulent. That’s fact.

    You claim also that ‘the national average wage is £500’. Really? I make that a NET income of £26,000, which in turn makes a gross salary of approx £35,000. I reckon a lot of people in receipt of the ACTUAL average salary wouldn’t mind that level of income.

    ‘The likes of whom think an ‘Unemployed Shipyard Welder’ is an uneducated slob, when they almost certainly spent more time and money on their education and certification than someone who got a undergraduates diploma and works in an office.’

    How on earth do you (think you) know what people who disagree with you think? is that kind of screed really meant to count as ‘bother(ing) your brain’?

    And where exactly does SimonK ‘(call) Labour supporters work-shy benefits cheats’?

    have worked with more people than I can remember, in my n my working life I have I’m afraid worked with

  42. Last bit typo – obviously

  43. @ JAY

    Totally agree; where on earth do people think the average national wage is £500 per week.

    I think this proves my point about public sector workers… dream world… This is not the case in the private sector, and I know this for a fact.

  44. If you are genuinely disabled believe me, DLA is almost IMPOSSIBLE to get. 40 pages of forms where you have to write an essay on each page. They try to “catch you out”, they try to make you give up. genuine disabilities all too often slip through the regulated questions and unless you can’t walk more than 10 metres you are unlikely to make a successful claim, even if you are disabled in a different way.
    If you too are disabled, I beg to differ, otherwise we really ought not to comment on things we have never experienced

  45. I assure you, that it is exceptionally hard to claim DLA.

    I know how hard it is, because I *am* disabled. DLA at higher rate is exceptionally hard to get, and usually requires an appeal of an initial decision not to grant it. I’ve seen this process happen with friends, and even had to go through it myself twice. (Having a seizure *during* the appeal hearing at one occasion)

    I’ve no doubt that you *think* that the people you know who claim DLA “don’t deserve it”. But that’s your attitude problem, not a reflection of their real disabilities. Just because they’re not in a wheel chair or missing a limb, doesn’t mean they don’t have mobility or care needs you don’t know about. And it’s your kind of attitude that puts vulnerable ‘hidden disabled’ at risk.

  46. So where will Labour’s cut’s fall?

    I don’t know Danbuck, or care as I’m more interested in the movement of the polls than in the outcomes, but I’d say :

    If Darling reads out a budget before the election that doesn’t set the budget for 2010-2011 then he’ll deservedly get a kicking in the polls.

    Longer term than that, the deficit is to be halved over four (?) years.

    Again, I don’t care whether that’s deliverable or not, but again, if he says things during the election campaign that cast any doubt on his determination, tehn the Tories and LibDems should have a field day. Sorry if that’s not aggresive enough for this thread!

  47. And you are quite right, I’d got the figure wrong…

    It is in fact £489 per week. (£531 if you’re male, only £426 if you’re not)

    Figure taken from the ONS 2009 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

  48. again Jay Blanc – Snap!!!!

  49. I’m a stats geek who has a blog based around generating a scatter graph chart and trend plot. What makes people think I wouldn’t check my figures?

    I mean, I follow *Baseball*!

  50. @ JOHN TT

    Labour are playing for time. They know they are misleading the electorate.

    I have to say I would be shocked if they do not call an election for the end of March or early April, as I have a feeling (work in retail at a senior level) that the economic figures will not be great for the Q1 2010. And this is down to various factors. I think this is their best shot at a Labour majority.

    We have a PM who was chancellor and came out with “golden rules” and who claimed to have abolished boom and bust. Those two phrases alone resonate with me as I think this shows complete and utter ignorance to the economic cycle and bad management.

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