There are two discussion threads for the new poll – please keep partisan arguments, whoops of delight and furious rants of despair to this one. Sensible non-partisan discussion of the poll is welcomed in the main thread :)


251 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times poll open thread”

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  1. Hallelujah!
    This changes everything. We might not even be looking at hung parliament any more. Dave’s a busted flush.

  2. Reguardless of how accurate the poll may or may not be, it is a good physiological boast to Labour, and will further panic the Tory Party.

  3. @ AL J

    I know you’ll be here sometime today.

    Woo Hoo!!! As Blur sang, back in the days of Cool Britannia :-)

  4. @ SUE MARSH

    Keep making those calls, Ms Marsh. Your message is getting through :-)

  5. Well all I can say is that if the nation re-elects Stalin Brown then they must be completely stuipid.

  6. Amber

    It’s super duper -that means the poor old foxes and deer & their baby fawns may be saved

    hooray hooray.

    please let it coninue

  7. Who thinks if Cameron fails to even get a hung parliment, but with a 2-3% lead UK wide (so possible around 4-5% in England) there will be a **** of a lot of calls for a change in the voting system?

  8. BTW- Its the sun that won it!

  9. Keep it up Sue

    It’s working lol ;-)

  10. It’s the Sun that

    DUN IT lol ;-)

  11. @Andrew Myers

    Yes, it’s all the fault of that stupid electorate.

  12. @ AL J

    Amber’s crystal ball might be proved correct – I’m looking marginally less like a space cadet.

    Sue may yet be proved right for backing me up.

    You’ll both be getting nervous & wanting to see what PB makes of this & what next AR poll is like.

  13. Amber

    Spot on as usual.

    Very excited but nervous -I’ll have trouble getting to sleep for a while. I’ll watch Andy Marr show in the morning-let’s see what transpires if any Tories are on the show.

    I get a feeling things are changing. As I posted before

    ”Austerity UK” isn’t working for the Tories -you are right about people feeling threatened by ”Time for Change” when the economy and lives are fragile.

  14. As the immortal Mrs T. would say;

    “Rejoice! Rejoice!”

  15. Sine the Sun backed the Tories, they have lost nearly 200,000 readers and the Tory lead has gone down 12%.

    Good work Rebekah!

    http://redrag1.blogspot.com/

  16. MLB
    **As the immortal Mrs T. would say;**

    “Rejoice! Rejoice!”

    lol And with that this soul is shattered and it’s time for bed -to have sweet dreams and not a Tory nightmare –I hope -but we do need to see the trend ;-)

  17. Anthony what is up with that comment, it is reflecting how the Sun has unusually for them seen a shift in the opposite direction in the polls since it switched to the Tories and a shift in it’s readership .

  18. Labour still behind where they were last January.

  19. Sorry Andy didn’t see this thread

  20. Difficult to know how Cameron should react to this.He’s been riding the Anti-Brown wave for so long you have to wonder how he’ll do now he has to start rowing under his own steam.If people don’t like or believe the ‘change’ he is offering he’s stuffed.

  21. YouGov are wrong! Do they have an agenda?

    they have consistantly called the Labour vote higher, and Tory vote lower. What makes their sampling perplexingly wrong?

  22. Really the UK deserves the total financial meltdown that it will get if Brown is re-elected.

    Actually part of me wants Labour to be re-elected just so they have to face the disaster they have caused in the first place.

  23. “THE gloom for the Tories should not be overstated. Staffers insist that their private polling shows the party’s support is holding up in the key marginals, where millions of pounds have been spent by Lord Ashcroft, the deputy chairman of the party.”

    The above is a quote from an article in the Sunday Times.

    Labour needs to get this message out. Marginal voters, the CONS believe your vote can be bought if they spend enough on advertising.

    UK voters: The CONS don’t care who you vote for. They’ll ‘buy’ the marginals & nobody else matters.

  24. @ ALLEY CAT

    RE: YouGov are wrong! Do they have an agenda?

    The CONS are not denying the YOUGOV polls are accurate.

    They claim their private polling shows that the CON vote is holding up in the marginals.

    The Sunday Times says, at length, that YouGov have shown great accuracy & integrity since they began polling in 2001.

    As to YouGov having an agenda, you had better hope Anthony doesn’t read the open thread – because he works for YouGov & that is a pretty loaded question you’ve asked!

  25. @ AL J

    If Sunday Times interview is to be believed, Cameron’s strategy is to redouble his message of change:

    The Tory party has Changed
    The UK needs Change
    Vote for Change – Do you want 5 more years of Brown?

    I mean really… he’s not ready to govern in tough times, he’s out of his depth & he wants to lose.

  26. The problem for people who have a view like Alley cat, is that they fail to understand just how toxic the Tory brand was, and still is to a lesser extent. In fact they refuse to accept that the brand ever has been, or ever could be perceived as toxic.

  27. I think the Labour surge comes down to Mandelson this week saying that the UK will be joining the Euro.

    After the last few weeks Mandelson is in touch with the common bloke saying joining the euro is a good idea.

    A few more great ideas like this Labour could get a 100 seat majority.

    This shows the press bias when tories say something ridiculous the press pounds them.

    At this rate Brown should wait until june 3 and Labour can win a landslide. Why have the election May 6th when Yougov shows you gaining almost a point everyday since their daily poll.

  28. @Cliff

    That is a lot of reason why Labour is surging.

    Conservative voters thinking it will be a great idea to lose this election to let labour clean up its mess.

    But Mandelson has thought of that and has a firewall plan to change the electoral system to make sure labour stays in power forever.

    I have never once heard a labour voter say it would be a good idea to have the tories win and yet so many tories think it would be a good idea to have brown for five more years to clean up his mess.

    Sorry I won’t be popping the cork to look forward to the next election in may 2015 with a more freindly labour system.

    Now labour starts with such a lead where they get 317 seats in a poll they are down by two percent and tories get 263 seats.

    Under AV labour would get 342 seats at 35 percent and tories would get 238 seats at 37 percent.

    Yet I keep reading on blog after blog how great of an idea to have the tories lose and have brown clean up his mess. Fine just be prepared for Labour to be cleaning up their mess forever then because with a new voting system tories will never be in power again and it will be a permanent one party system under AV.

  29. Has the whole country gone mad? Is there some masochistic tendency that wants to see the country to go down the toilet?

    Brown is gambling our future on the 2.30 at Newmarket in the vague hope that there will be a strong recovery over the next 12 months and this is looking more and more unlikely.

    So what happens in twelve months if Labour is reelected and there has been no recovery?

    Doe he argue that we need another 12 months of irresponsible borrowing? Of course not. By then we will have been forced by the markets to do the only prudent thing as Greece has had to do. And the pain on us all will be far greater.

  30. The possibility of another 5 years of this tired, flat out of ideas rabble who have dropped us in the biggest mess for a generation fills me with despair!

  31. Yay, Yipppppeeeee, Whoop, Big fat raspberry noise.

    Thanks for that Anthony, I feel better.

    @ Amber – for the record, I called a win a few days before the prediction competition, but when i put the figures into the predictor it just looked so unlikely. Not looking so unlikely today though is it?????

    Finally, as this is the “say what you like” thread, here’s two delicious little thoughts for Amber and Al J (and of course anyone else of a rosy hue)

    Delicious point No 1) May 7th. Cameron with Osborne just behind him looking a little wild eyed. Very quiet Tories all around, stepping down as leader after squandering a 21 point lead.

    Dealicious point No 2) 2015 Britain has forgotten all about the recession. the deficit has been reduced greatly and the banking shares and Robin Hood Tax bought in unprecedented billions to help things along. unemployment has fallen right back down and Iraq is a long forgotten mistake…… you know where I’m going here…….

  32. Oh and Re : Delicious point No. ! – this has been my wallpaper for a week or so……. (hope links are allowed Anthony…

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=232623

  33. I’m being moderated on the open thread!!
    @ Amber – reading the main thread now and have to keep flicking back here to be partisan – isn’t it lovely when suddenly all the posts are saying what you’ve been saying for weeks….

  34. @ Amber – This has been my wallpaper for a week or two….

    http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/tombstone.php?poster=232623

  35. I know this is an open thread, but calling Brown “Stalin” is a disgusting insult to the millions that were murdered by Stalin. How a supposedly sensible person could compare the two figures defeats me. I know that Conservatives are worried, but try and keep some sense of proportion. Invoking the Communist bogey is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and I don’t think Mr Myers deserves to be taken seriously.

  36. @ Barnaby – Hear Hear – I had exactly the same moment of outrage when someone explained to me what Zanu-Labour meant.
    Obviously I knew who Zanu PF were, just couldn’t believe anyone would be disgusted enough to compare Brown with Mugabe.

  37. Amber Star,

    Does spending money on publicity or propaganda meaning buying votes? If so Labour and Tories do this all the time.

    I trust you will be join me in voting Lib Dem, who don’t buy votes in this way.

    My definition of buying votes would be quite different; it would mean a party that wins support by benefiting one segment of the population at the expense of the rest, and the country as a whole.

    It seems to me that all political parties when in government do precisely that.

  38. Sue – anything with a link it in gets held back for manual approval.

  39. @ Anthony, oh I see. Thanks.

  40. Do voters realize that this election could mean permanent one party system forever in the UK.

    In this poll labour gets 35 percent and 317 seats and tories get 37 percent and 263 seats.

    Now under AV if Labour wins labour gets 342 seats with 35 percent and tories get 238 seats with 37 percent.

    AV will allow Labour to never have to share power with the lib dems and Labour will have permanent one party control.

    Under AV labour could win 35 percent of the vote and get 56 percent of the seats.

    Lib dems are voting for AV system which will allow Labour to never have to share power and Labour will have the majority seats forever with 35 percent of the vote.

    How in the world will Labour ever be out of power again?

    In order for tories to win this election they need a majority for Brown to give up power. That isn’t happening. The tories getting 323 seats is a fantasy at this point.

    So Labour then gets a new AV system for next election. Now normally a fifth term would be very hard to win and Mandelson knows this. But I don’t see how it is mathematically possible for the tories to win in the AV system ever.

    In 2005 tories got more votes in england than Labour and labour got 286 seats and tories got less than 200.

    Under AV system labour could get less votes than tories in England and get almost double the seats.

    What is so frustrating about this election is that tories will never be in power again if they lose.

    It would be one thing to go from a 28 percent lead in summer of 2008 in a poll to lose after being out of power for 13 years.

    When Labour lost in 1992 it was brutal but they never had a 28 percent lead.

    But to lose and be out of power until 2015 for 18 years is one thing but if the conservatives lose they will be out of power forever in the new voting system.

    That means out of power in 2025 and out of power in 2055.

    I’ve become convinced there will only be labour governments for the rest of my life.

  41. Labour ministers want AV because they don’t want to have to ever share power with the lib dems. They want labour complete control forever.

    How lib dems got conned into supporting this is beyond me.

    I undestand why lib dems would want proportional system because there 22 percent of votes into seats would give lib dems a seat at the table to effect change.

    But AV will only help the lib dems marginally and it will really help labour stay in power without having to share power. I would think lib dems would take it as an insult of labour not wanting to share power. To make it so labour could get a majority with 33 percent in AV system.

  42. @Jason
    Oh, you’re just teasing us with the prospect of there never ever being another Con gov, aren’t you? On yesterday’s thread I advocated PR. You should be an advocate too.

    On a different theme, if Labour were to emerge victorious, the power of the media barons would be broken, wouldn’t it? Surely, we would all welcome that?

  43. Wait until Labour changes the voting system and they are in power forever they will have all the media at their beckon calling.

    Murdoch was closer to labour when they were supporting blair than he is to Cameron. So there is a bit of hypocrisy on mandelson’s part.

    I will stand by this prediction Labour will have permanent rule under AV.

    Lib dems will never get power under AV and neither will the tories.

    I was looking forward to a new tory candidate rory stewart one day having a chance to be PM.

    But under AV forget about it we will go from PM Brown to PM Harriet Harman to PM Milliband to PM Balls.

  44. Well you Labour supporters might be laughing now, but will you be laughing when your political masters have stuffed the country.

    Labour governments ALWAYS end up bankrupting Britain. Socialism NEVER works. I cannot name a single country in the World where socialism has worked, can you?

    I dont necessarily think the Tories have got it right, but debt has to be paid back and if the small businesses dont get going again which is NOT happening, this country will be bankrupt.

    Tories generally end up sorting out Labour’s financial mess.

  45. AV is voting for second worst.

    Labour could do something unpopular like Iraq war and still get the left support with AV.

    Left will come out to vote lib dems and then vote Labour as their second worst option.

    They would never come out to the polls just to vote for labour but since they were already there voting for lib dems they will then pick labour as second choice.

    People that like hung parliaments also shouldn’t like AV as it increases the chance labour won’t have to work with others.

    Also I thought the need was for more proporational representation and AV would only make it worse.

    Under AV labour could win 35 percent and instead of winning 54 percent of the vote they could win 57 percent of the vote.

  46. @ Jason for the record, apparently Murdoch LOVES GB but his son is a big Cameron fan (they’re close friends.
    Daddy didn’t want the Sun to declare for the Tories and didn’t trust Cameron, but he felt it was time his son started to take his own decisions.
    I imagine there may be some heated discussions at the moment.

  47. @Jason
    Just to be clear…you’re aknowledging that the maojority of voters do not want a Con gov? They want a left of centre gov?

    So, it’s the will of the people.

  48. Conservatives say:- Vote for Change—–so
    Bring back proper Fox Hunting
    Keep Hereditary Peers
    Help the rich with IHTax
    And they really expect support?

    PS Polling cannot be before 6 May as it will take that time for our printer to get the Election Address ready!!!!

  49. The Cons have been conning the public to believe their story of broken Britain with fake statistics, eg more than half of girls in the most deprived areas of Britain fell pregnant before their 18th birthday. Trust them with the economy when they cant get the decimal point right?

  50. @David Greybeard
    I really can’t see how making ONLY millionaires pay IHT is helping the rich….

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