Over the last week we’ve had no fewer than five YouGov polls showing the Conservative lead shrinking to only six points, but apart from a 7 point lead from ICM we haven’t had much from other pollsters to see if they are picking up the same trend – Angus Reid tend to show very different Labour figures anyway, and we have no recent historical trend data from Harris to compare.

Tomorrow’s Telegraph however carries the figures from a new Ipsos-MORI poll that shows a very similar lead to YouGov. The topline figures are CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+3). We have to go all the way back to December 2008 to find a Tory lead as low as five points.

The poll was conducted between Friday and Monday last weekend.


278 Responses to “Ipsos MORI show lowest Tory lead since 2008”

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  1. @John TT – “The “time for change” slogan might succeed not because it’s been done before, but because it shifts focus from the nitty-gritty detail which can be confusing, and simplifies matters.”

    A slogan never won an election, especially with this slogan, when everyone wants to know what the change will be. Slogans sum up a parties appeal, but they need to have the pitch and appeal to back up the slogan. Where Cameron has consistently erred is that he believes its all in the slogan, and he has changed his slogans to suit the prevailing mood. This is why he is in trouble. While he models himself on Blair, he forgets that while Blair was ‘policy light’ as someone commented, New Labour spent a lot of time and effort to get across a few basic but strong policy messages. This is what has let the Tories down and they have no time to repair this damage – they set the scene months (years?) ago. This isn’t to say they won’t necessarily win – it just means we don’t believe them even before they get into power, whereas with Blair we gave him a 5 year honeymoon.

  2. RichardW – to give some credit to Stephanie Flanders, she did mention this on the ten o’clock.

    Not sure it made much of an impression but nshe was downbeat about the figures.

  3. Incidentally – according to the telegraph, Osborne is planning tax cuts for business for his ’emergency budget’. This is a very good move and will probably be copied by darling in March, which is probably why the Tories didn’t want to make it public unless they had to.

  4. Is there A YouGov Tonight please Anthony?

  5. Alec, I take your point & should have added that while Blair’s “Time For Change” slogan was accompanied by “Investment in Public Services”, we’re still waiting for a similar four word policy strapline from Cameron that’s better than “balancing the books”

  6. Very well-thought-out and sensible, Richard. A core-vote strategy is a desperate measure and no way to win an election.

  7. “Tax cuts for business” moves the debate towards the Redwoodian “Kickstart growth with tax cuts” approach. Whre is Redwood by the way?

  8. Latest from the Guardian.

    Hung Parliament news – Conservatives worried about the possibility of not getting a majority.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/26/david-cameron-prepares-hung-parliament

  9. @al j
    ‘Tory new Slogan

    omg How Original !!!!’

    Were you expecting anything else?? haha :-)

  10. Al J – nope, it’s in the Sun from Tuesday to Friday and Sunday Times on Sundays.

  11. Naylor

    We live in hope ;-) haha

  12. Thanks Anthony

    In the Sunday Times on Sunday – as opposed to any other day ;-)

  13. Anthony

    Please don’t ban me – it was only a joke

  14. @Anthony
    Are there any other polls due apart from the You Gov ones?

  15. What d’you mean? If I provide feedlines like that and no one gives the punchline I’d be offended ;)

  16. Naylor – I think we should have a ComRes in the Indy next week, then after that it’s probably Populus in the Times.

  17. Phew!!!!

    Thank you ;-)

  18. When it says waiting for moderation.. does that mean it was to offensive to put on??

  19. Naylor

    I don’t think so. Some things get *awaiting mod* automatically.

    I have had it too – nothing to be concerned about ;-)

  20. John TT

    “Anything with ISM at the end is a recipe for disaster, don’t you agree?”

    My Unitarian grandfather would have agred with you. He wrote a poem about the ISMs, “the ancient and the new.”

  21. Trevorsden:

    “Also quite a bit of the increase in GDP came from immigration, more people create more GDP, that why GDP per head has declined since 2005. As immigrants return to Poland that notional capacity diminishes as well.”

    Really? Which the chicken, which the egg?

  22. ChrisC

    “10% of people say they are going to vote Tory and yet either say they don’t know what they stand for, or they do know and they don’t like it!”

    ….and in a Scottish poll 19% preferred a “tired and failing” government to a Conservative one.

  23. Alec

    “….. it just means we don’t believe them even before they get into power, whereas with Blair we gave him a 5 year honeymoon.”

    My father used to say that anyone could make a mistake, but only a damned fool made the same mistake twice.

    Labour supporters here relish in DC’s supposed gaffes but surely the worst was “heir to Blair.” Clearly, as a PR man, he admired Blair the rest of us were turned off by spin, 45 minute WMD etc.

  24. @ James – “Except that, conservative PUMAs are much more likely to stay home, or vote for UKIP, then even think about voting Labour.”

    I was assuming it was more about swing voters? Fell for the great, new Cameron image, then got turned off and swung right back again???

  25. @Sue

    The Conservative PUMAs are on the right of their party, not the left. They’re attacking Cameron for being too ‘weak’ and not supporting their pet policies. So it’s not quite the same as the US Election’s PUMAs peeling off Left to Right, as the Conservative PUMAs peeling off right to far-right.

  26. John Dick – read all the studies over at Migrationwatch.

    More people coming into the country create their own demand. It does not make any of us any richer which is what you would expect from a growth in GDP; in fact figures show GDP per head have fallen since 2005. We have got poorer.

    It seems to me that as Eastern Europeans return home then this would have a drag on GDP growth – but who knows even I have to be wrong once.

  27. John B Dick – I like a good poem, and a good Unitarian for that matter! is it online or published anywhere?

  28. I think all the mud-slinging from the tories has put people off. You need to know what THEY are going to do not constant abuse at the other side.

    Also, I think Brown doggedly ploughing through the fusillade of excrement has started to earn him respect. We all like a fighter against overwhelming odds, especially when it looks as if he’s in with a chance of winning. I would not be at all surprised to see him beating cameron with a small but workable majority.

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