Today’s YouGov/Sun poll has voting intentions of CON 39%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 16%(-3). The drop in the Lib Dem support is almost certainly not significant, just a suggestion that yesterday’s 2 point jump in their support was a mere blip.

There is apparently also a MORI/Telegraph poll due out later tonight.


53 Responses to “YouGov Daily poll – 39/33/16”

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  1. So this poll actually shows support for the Conservatives increasing.Not much sign then of the Tories crumbling.

  2. Yeh but Labour is up one too

    What happened to the LibDems?

  3. Peter – or to spin it another way Labour rise 1% despite “Forces of Hell or Bullygate”.

    With out the spin it is another non mover of a poll within margin of error.

  4. So its confirmed that the issue we have with YouGov is they are understating LibDems compared to other pollsters to the benefit of Labour.

    Despite some comment on this I have not picked up anybody suggesting why it should be. AR push down Labour YouGov push down LDs. No one seems to be pushing down the TGories.

  5. Surely LibDems down 3 is the real point of interest in this poll!!!

    I’m not pro LDP (or any of them), but I’m a bit puzzled by it… perhaps they’re getting crowded out in the buzz of all the playground banter between the other two?!

  6. MORI seems to be 37/32/19 = 5% Tory lead.

    I’m surprised, and got it wrong when I said a lower Labour share. I await more polls.

  7. IpsosMori/Telegraph Con 37% Lab 32% LD 19%.
    5% Con lead.

  8. I haven’t seen 5% since I was a baby ;-)

  9. The average last 4 polls from Yougov for the Lib Dems is just over 17, but from the last 4 polls from others it is just over 20???

  10. Interesting that a non-YouGov poll confirms their findings. There has definitely been a further sharp tightening of the race since the BullyGate thing started.

  11. No such thing as bad publicity – thus the performance of Lib Dems – invisibility!

  12. I somehow knew there was a 5% lead coming. Next question – is this as bad as it gets for the Conservatives? That sort of GE result would leave them definately too short of seats to try to running a minority government, even considering that the Unionists would help them out and Sinn Fein wouldn’t turn up and thus not need being outvoted.

    At this rate it’ll be neck and neck by the time the real thing starts. I never would have guessed that.

  13. And, I’m still trying to find a good reason for the LibDems being so popular. Could it be Vince Cable?

  14. IpsosMori/Telegraph Con 37% Lab 32% LD 19%

    YouGov CON 39%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 16%(-3)

    (1) Bully gate and Darling gate dead in the water
    (2) More questions for the AR philes on here

  15. Hot diggity, this is getting fun.

    The Spectator political editor has written an interesting article on a meeting this week between Cameron, Hilton, Coulson and Osborne i.e. the Tory High Command. The gist of the story is that they do not know why the tightening is happening, but believ it may be down to a lack of clear roles within the Tory team e.g. strategist, chief campaign co-ordinator.

    I would buy this explanation, as the narrowing of the polls looks to be due more to Tory share dropping consistently below 40%.

    Would anyone agree that the key for the Conservatives to arrest this decline is to firm up the clarity of their campaign; or would you say it is something more fundamental with the policy message?

  16. 37/32/19 is Labour largest party on UNS. Encouraging for Labour (even more worrying for the Tories). Labour really need their ratings to head above 32 before having a real hope of forming the next government.

    Still, who would have thought back in September we would even be considering that as a possibility.

  17. Off-topic so apologies near the top of a thread (I know Anthony prefers the erudite to engage first), but as I agreed with Colin on the last thread, BBC4’s The Great Offices of State – The Treasury – is well worth a watch and re-run at 11.30pm (before the I-Player takes it on)

  18. 37/32/19? On electoral calculus, that gives labour 2 more seats than the tories, and the lib dems enough to give either party a majority

    we live in interesting times….

  19. Cap’n

    **Would anyone agree that the key for the Conservatives to arrest this decline is to firm up the clarity of their campaign; or would you say it is something more fundamental with the policy message?**

    Austerity Decade is a killer- Problem is – it IS coming across loud and clear

  20. Again further evidence of how totally out of sync Angus Reid are – i’m suprised they are taken seriously enough to be published here.

  21. @keith

    1) Much cleaner parliamentary party than the others – no house “flippers”
    2) Actually have some ideas to reform our broken electoral and political system e.g. Elected House of Lords and Single Transferable Vote;
    3) Plan to take the poor out of tax with £10,000 personal allowance;
    4) Right about the Iraq war;
    5) Vince Cable (big plus compared with Osborne – Vince actually knows something about how the economy works) and Nick Clegg – higher voter rating than the other leaders;
    6) Not part of the old two-party Punch and Judy show.
    7) Not paid for by Lord Ashcroft or trade unions.

    Back on this thread, Lib Dems are being squeezed because of lack of media time recently. Virtually completely pushed off the air.

    My prediction for election: C38, L32, LD 21 —-> Cons 42 seats short, plus about 15 gains above UNS = minority Con govt.

  22. Re Angus Reid & Mike Smithson – I wonder what’s happening to the odds?

    Do bookies take note of the pollsters and if so whether they might be collectively either delighted or disappointed that they diverge so much from each other?

  23. I suspect that the issue is less ‘Conservatives losing support’ as it is ‘Conservatives not improving vote share, Labour gaining back voters who had threatened not to vote’. If Labour get people back to voting, then the Conservatives have to find more votes to stay level. Something they simply aren’t able to do with their current campaign. I think they deluded themselves into thinking they had really ‘taken the centre ground’ when what they were simply benefiting from Labour’s drop in vote share.

  24. John TT –

    Since there’s a new thread already (not that I encourage everything to always go to the newest thread – that’s the whole point of the most recent comments thing!) I agree, it was a very good series. Or at least, the Home Office and Treasury bits were – annoyingly I missed the Foreign Office one.

  25. Scooby – The people I speak to here in Osborne’s constituency of Tatton are increasingly saying they are not convinced of the capability of Cameron and Osborne. One of the most often heard comments is ‘we dont want Blair spin mark 2’. This is a Tory stronghold (apart from the anti sleaze candidate Martin Bell who took the seat in ’97) so it’s really a not very positive viewpoint thats being held of Cameron and Osborne which seems to be causing the doubt to register here.

  26. @CAPN SCOOBY

    “Would anyone agree that the key for the Conservatives to arrest this decline is to firm up the clarity of their campaign; or would you say it is something more fundamental with the policy message?”

    The key thing they have in their own power is to decide that – instead of trying to make everyone hate Labour- they need to try and give people reasons to vote FOR them.

    The other key thing they have in their control is two-parted: (a) actually start being explicit in all policy areas about just what it is they are going to do (b)….and STICK to it as opposed to the utter incompetence and U turns of Cameron since his rather pompous new year’s press conference (no doubt based on the Blair esque use of focus groups).

    The key two things they cannot control are:

    (1) people are scared- as the yank political consultants define it this is a ‘mummy election’ and the centre left always does better i.e. ‘change (to the right) becomes a much harder sell at a time of household and individual worry’ especially when the opposition are either not being open about what they intend to do or have been….and then changed their minds. Better stay with the current guys/ we know where we are and at least they are saying they will be careful about cuts and be more sensible in the timescale of implementing them

    (2) Tories on here should not underestimate the number of labour voters who either sat on their hands or voted LD or green (even the islamist respect) in 2005- they are going to flock back and I suspect that trend is not even showing fully in polls as yet. Neither should they underestimate that centrist/ centre left capacity for TV deployed with such vicious effect in 1997. You will see a great deal of TV at this coming election- most of it (a la 1997) *against* the Conservatives.

    So there are some things they can do about the last 2 months trends- but quite a lot id beyond their control. Sorry.

    Both parties are subject of course to the Macmillan dictum.

  27. Jay

    yes but is the increased Labour share in their heartlands or spread evenly.

    If they are building up their base line vote in seats they already hold safely will it benefit them elsewhere. Its the marginals that will decide so no one can really say till election night itself.

  28. Rob –

    I can’t imagine “DarlingGate” would have any impact anyway, but certainly the MORI poll has nothing to say about it since fieldwork finished on Monday.

  29. Stephen – strategically speaking, Labour politicians in power do not want to lose this election.

    For one thing, they believe they are right and that five more years will help.

    For another, they actually detest (I don’t myself by the way) the Tories, and for another, one of the first things they would do if they were in a position to form a Govt is (with libDem approval) to devise a referendum question on PR that could mean No Turning Back in their sense of the phrase….

  30. I think we should still take the Mori result with some caution. Their scores for Tory support have swung alot in recent months between 36% and up to 43%. It looks to me like their polling methods seem to produce a lot of volatility and even though it backs up YouGov’s findings I would suggest we don’t get over excited until we’ve seen other polls from more pollsters.

    @cap’n Scooby – “Would anyone agree that the key for the Conservatives to arrest this decline is to firm up the clarity of their campaign; or would you say it is something more fundamental with the policy message?”
    Both – the one thing that is clear now in people’s minds about Tory policy (rightly or wrongly) is that the Tories want to cut the deficit through big and fast spending cuts. I said at the time that the austerity message was a monumental blunder (in tone if not in the actuality of policy details) and I still maintain that. The generally weak economy has helped Labour make this an issue. By contrast, Brown’s derided ‘Tory cuts against Labour investment’ was a brilliant message that has secured the image in people’s minds that the Tories will have to fight against all the way to May 6th. People underestimated Brown – facts are rarely relevant in elections – it’s impressions that shift votes. So the Tory message is perfectly clear on the wrong fundamental policy.

    I would add that I am not endorsing any particular policy view. it’s just that as a neutral, if I was given two competing slogans and asked which one would move most votes, I would always choose ‘don’t risk the recovery’ against ‘we must act fast on the deficit’.

  31. None of this is any surprise. The reason for the low Labour support in 2005 was a/ Because they were unpopular but, and importantly b/ Because voters who normally voted Labour felt the Tories couldn’t win. Opinion polls being strongly anti-Government has been pretty much the norm for decades as has losing Councils.

    However my thinking for a long time has been that the Liberal Democrats and Labour supporters are, in the main, anti-Conservative and that, given the bias against the Tories within the current voting system, that makes it very easy for them to deny the Conservatives the success in the marginal seats which they will need to form a government. Added to that if their support is now dipping back toward it’s previous core levels they’ve got no chance.

    I feel that, outside of the truly committed Labour and Tory voters, the country is ready for shared Government and, at long last, some form of proportional voting. Not only would this allow votes to be reflected more fairly it would further encourage support of minor parties, beyond exisiting levels. Mind you how the Lib. Dems. can be regarded as minor when at various times, their level of support has been above either of the “main” parties, I fail to see.

    Paul.

  32. Anthony – the Foreign Office one is called “Palace of Dreams” and is available on the BBC I-Player. it’s a three part series, so I think it’s finished now

    I’m going to paste this into your new thread because i think it should be seen. Sorry for any breach of etiquette.

  33. Anthony, I remember a while back when I said that I expected Labour to be polling consistently between 31-33% in the months leading to the GE. You said you would be very surprised to see that happening. Can I ask why that was the case.

  34. John TT

    “Anthony – the Foreign Office one is called “Palace of Dreams” and is available on the BBC I-Player. it’s a three part series, so I think it’s finished now

    I’m going to paste this into your new thread because i think it should be seen. Sorry for any breach of etiquette.”

    I preferred tonights on HMT- seeing the old bruiser Healey in action at the 1976 LPC: hey ho halcyon days.

  35. Mori polls are notoriously unreliable showing extremes on both sides and cannot be taken seriously.

  36. John TT – I read the comments on the admin screen anyway so I see them in one big thread :)

    CLAD – don’t remember, but expect it was because I didn’t expect it to happen!

  37. Rob – I missed half of it so am going to annoy Mrs TT by staying up too late to watch it at 11.30!

    BTW if Lawson looked then how he looks now, I think he’d have persuaded her!

  38. It was one time when incumbent pre-election poll bounce was being discussed. I was just wondering if your expectation was a someone who works in, and is knowledgeable about polls, or something else.

  39. Oh, if it was that context it was probably because the “government always improves” argument is nonsense. There is no guarantee, and sometimes they don’t.

    Obviously this time round they have done, but it’s because they’ve done well, economic optimism has improved, and the Conservatives have stumbled around a bit. It’s not the magic of an approaching election.

  40. I disagree Anthony. It’s only the last two elections where leading up to an election the incumbents share hasn’t risen. I put this down to most believed Labour would win anyway. The toxic nature of the Tory brand is very much underestimated.

  41. Anthony

    Do you know when the next AR poll is ?

    It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out

  42. CAPN SCOOBY

    “Would anyone agree that the key for the Conservatives to arrest this decline is to firm up the clarity of their campaign; or would you say it is something more fundamental with the policy message?”

    One thing partisan supporter of both parties on here overlook is that the rest of the world does not understand the ig economic issues.

    The do perceive theConsratives as excited about the excuse for slash and burn in the public sector which would free up funds fortax reductions after some of the debt ha been paid back.

    The have accepted the credo of the fundsmentalist free marketeer, and they do not see how making thousands of public sector employees unemployed can help either the economy or those who are presently unemployed and could be producing ssomething of value instead of doing nothing.

    If that’s what is good for the country, then let’s hear from the Conservatives the rationale behind the idea. They can’t assume the electorate believes wat their church believes.

    If they aren’t gong to do that, (and they probably won’t) they could just say so, but the fundamentalists in the party would object. If it should happen that they don’t win, the looney right will say it is because they didn’t offer Thatcherite policies in a mirror image og the 190’s looney Left.

    I often think of the political Left and Right as a like a waiststcoat. If you go far enough to the extremes, they meet up round the back and are indistinguishable at the part which is least presentable and best kept out of sight .

    Like the fundamentalists of the left, they “know” that it would work because they themselves believe it.

    Credo in unum forum

  43. Amongst the many typing mistakes

    TheY have NOT accepted the credo of the fundsmentalist free marketeer

  44. Problems with tory campaign:

    1: Peaked too early. They were really on fire last year. Battering Labour almost everywhere. I was kind of thinking at the time “save some of this for election season” as Labour were really firing little back. Either they had nothing, or they were just veteran campaigners waiting for the tories to punch themselves out. Think it may have been the latter, as you have to admit that even with the odd blip, Labour have raised their game as the election approaches.

    2: Still think the leadership is a bit lightweight. And I mean right across the entire front bench. I’m not even sure guys like Hague (or should I say HAGUE) are politicians who get huge amounts of respect from the electorate. Guys like Chris Grayling as well. Osborne. Cameron himself. Charles Clarke is a trusted figure with voters, but he generally contradicts Osborne most of the time!

    Just mean, if you asked the electorate to rate Osborne, Cameron, Hague, Darling, Brown, Milliband on “haplessness” I’m not sure the tories would do that much better than a very tired Labour party at the minute.

    Think guys like Darling, The Millibands, Johnson, Harmann are actually quite respected by voters, no matter how unpopular their boss is.

    If Cameron had that sort of team, I’m sure a lot of his flaws would also be overlooked as well.

    3: Think they have got a bit lazy. Pretty sure they still think it’s a foregone conclusion. And it may be. But they’ve been going with the “time for change” stuff for too long.

    Blair was so succesful, as he not only highlighted a failing government, but he also inspired people with his policies.

    You know, he was a very popular man for a long long time. As were his policies.

    Not sure the tories have invested enough time into trying to inspire people to go with them

  45. Mike Smithson takes issue with YouGov’s weighting. We know he doesn’t have a pro-Tory axe to grind, so might he not have a point?

  46. @Neil

    No.

  47. A very well reasoned response there CLAD, in the light of your persuasive arguments I must concede that he doesn’t have a point.

    (wasn’t MS who wrote the article, sorry, but it was on PB)

  48. @Neil

    if you read the ‘Articles & FAQs’ section on the left, Anthony explains all. instead of asking the question people should educate themselves. They would be more inclined to understand more if they read it themselves than hearing it third hand.

  49. Just went to place bet on Labour winning. Corals won’t take it.

  50. ‘CHRISTOPHER
    Problems with tory campaign:
    1: Peaked too early. They were really on fire last year. Battering Labour almost everywhere’

    Really? Labour was imploding everywhere; not sure it was Tory skill.

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