Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures, with changes from yesterday, of CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). An increase in Lib Dem support from the others, but Labour and the Conservatives are unchanged. YouGov’s lead has been steady at six points for four days now, if there was going to be any effect from the “Brown Bully” allegations, then I think we should have seen it by now.


92 Responses to “YouGov’s lead remains at 6 points”

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  1. OMG you’re going to be busy over the next few months Anthony. A poll a day… :)

  2. A relief to labour. people likely to vote labour have excepted GB warts and all.

  3. Prediction: in next few days, gap will be 4-5%

  4. How is the Polling average still 39/30/19 ?

    No-one has polled the Conservatives at that kind of lead recently except Angus Reid.

  5. It’l be intersting to see how the Tories handle the pressure if the polls narrow any further. Will the right force Cameron to U-turn on his U-turn and persue a disastrous “savage cuts” election theme?

  6. Parties are conducting a normal election campaign – smearing their opponents (Bullygate etc in the UK : Lunchgate and Lettergate in a remote part of the UK that must not be mentioned :-) ). Journalists too lazy to do anything other than publish smears and add “gate” to them.

    But the circumstances are NOT normal. The expenses scandal seems to have created a depth of cynicism about all politicians, that would explain the lack of enthusiasm for any partyamong those who are not politically committed, and none able to develop a commanding lead.

  7. This narrow polls are very interesting, it shows that people are actually looking at the parties and looking at the Tories a lot more carefully then they have done in the past. The next few months before the election shall be interesting to see how the polls chabnge.

  8. the same result as ar – only difference is labour

  9. There are three Angus Reid polls still in the average, plus two other polls at ten or above. Most of those have a fairly low weighting, so they’ll drop out of the average soon and probably boost Labour, but probably only by a point or two.

    It does go to show how quickly the tightening has happened, however. Which either means the Tories are massively vulnerable or that it could reverse course suddenly.

  10. Anthony

    Do you know the explanation for the “Labour Loyal”, “Labour Disloyal” Party IDs that Yougov are using. If so, can you tell us?

  11. rupert murdoch made ed koch mayor of new york from a 9 point defecit. I think seeing david cameron through the finish line wont cause him too many problems. torys to win by 39 to 32, and out again in 17 years or so. sad labour supporter

  12. ed koch I wonder what his nickname was LOL.

  13. Oldnat – Labour loyal are people with Labour ID who say they voted Labour in 2005. Labour disloyal are people with Labour ID who do not say they voted Labour in 2005 (mostly they didn’t vote, or voted Lib Dem).

  14. BB said
    “Prediction: in next few days, gap will be 4-5%”

    Funny I looked at the recent run of 6-point leads a moment ago and wondered if the next one will be a 5-pointer. It seems things are headed that way.

  15. @Jakob – “It’l be intersting to see how the Tories handle the pressure if the polls narrow any further.”

    Fascinating article coming from James Forsyth in the Spectator apparently. They are having top team crisis meetings and can’t understand what is happening. This quote is illuminating – “It is as clear to the country as it is to the top Tories that the Conservative election campaign is in trouble; that the party seems to be stagnating. One aide puts it like this: ‘A shark has to constantly move forward or it dies. And I think what we’ve got on our hands is a dead shark.’”

    If this report is true, it would seem that Tory HQ don’t have faith in the AR polls – otherwise they would be anticipating a 150-200 seat majority. One thing is very clear – there is an absolute anomaly which cannot be explained by MoE in the level of labour support. Who is right will make a huge difference. Even with the expenses scandal adding to support for others, I just can’t see labour on 26% if the Tories are on 38% – it intuitively doesn’t seem to add up. I also think Edward CB’s point on the speed of the recent movement is interesting. Is this a sign that minds are being made up as we near the election?

  16. This poll and the current news suggests to me that there is a good chance the next non-Yougov poll will be Con 40 Lab 29 Lib Dems 21.

  17. Philip JW

    Philip, I don;t see how?

    YouGov has no record of over subscribing the Labour vote – look at the maoral election in 2008?

  18. Thanks Anthony

    Do YouGov intend to extend this classification to other parties?

  19. Whilst I wouldn’t dream of criticising YouGov (especially not here of all places), isn’t it a little odd to have several polls in a row with almost identical results? I know PK has specifically set out to create a brand new poll each day but this still looks slightly like one big poll taken over several days.. (That’s not an accusation of dishonesty by the way)

  20. Interesting to hear Tom Bradbe (who never seems to have anything questioning or negative to say about Cameron & co) on ITN News astounded that polls still close and showing people rating Brown as strong and determined. Dave must be crying in his Guiness.

  21. The public are sick of The Elite (voted in by them but not apparently feeling accountable to them with regard to expenses)

    Right or wrong, the Old Etonian Tory High Command are seen as more representative of that Eilte than the Scottish High Command of the Labour Party.

    That’s why the lead is not 20% plus (only a view, not wedded to it myself) Question is, how to change that perception?

    The other thing is that Labour lost a big player when Blair went – beforehand, they were defined by the Blair-Brown axis. Afterwards, no fire could be fuelled by the likes of Milliband(s), Johnson, Smith, Harman , Straw etc.

    That led to the Conservaticves’ characters (Hague, Gove, Clarke, etc) filling the spaces like they couldn’t when Blair was around.

    So the lead grew.

    Now, Darling is emerging as a Big Beast. Mandelson has brecome a Big Beast (with a strangely avuncular demeanour)

    So the lead is shrinking as the characters line up in the First Teams

  22. BB – I was frowning for 5 mins there trying too hard.

    Then I read your post – thanks for the laugh! :) I hope no-one drew a shamrock on the head for him!

  23. Philip JW
    This poll and the current news suggests to me that there is a good chance the next non-Yougov poll will be Con 40 Lab 29 Lib Dems 21.

    Unless its AR in which case it will be

    40/25/21

    IMHO i cant see any polls except AR having Lab under 30. Those days have gone

  24. A 9 point Labour Lead geve them a majority of 166 seats in 2001 whilst an identical Tory Lead now gives a hung parliament!!

    What on earth is going on? Something very unfair and biased here – why aren’t the Tories kicking up about it?

    And that’s not a partisan comment by the way – it is just a question of being fair. A 9 point Labour lead should deliever a similar result to a 9 point Tory lead give or take a few seats.

  25. Oldnat – no, the overwhelming majority of people who identified with the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2005 also voted for them. It is only Labour who had a large chunk of people who said they identified with the party, but didn’t actually vote for them.

  26. Ironically, a policy such as “reduce MPs salary to zero” would appeal to the mulktitudes, and to the Old Etonian (it’s peanuts anyway) Elite at the same time (IMVHO!!)

  27. Anthony

    Thanks again – that, in itself, is interesting.

  28. Andrew Myers.

    There is no reason why FPTP must treat Lab and Con equally. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t. For the past 20 years it’s been biased against the Tories.

    It’s just one of the risks you run in supporting a penny-farthing electoral system like FPTP.

    Long may the Tories support it!
    LOL

  29. Anthony Wells
    Oldnat – no, the overwhelming majority of people who identified with the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2005 also voted for them. It is only Labour who had a large chunk of people who said they identified with the party, but didn’t actually vote for them

    Indeed i was one such voter due to Iraq,and knew i would still get a left of centre Govt

    My residual anger is far outweighed by the stop Dave motive this time

  30. “It is only Labour who had a large chunk of people who said they identified with the party, but didn’t actually vote for them.”

    Does that indicate a temporary withdrawal of support? ie “I’m Labour but I want this shower out”?

    If so, the challenge for Cameron if he wins is to convert that swing to a switch. When was the last time the Tory “identifiers” outnumber the Labour ones?

  31. “if there was going to be any effect from the “Brown Bully” allegations, then I think we should have seen it by now”

    Are you sure we aren’t seeing one? The gap hasn’t been this consistently narrow for ages, couldn’t we be seeing a POSITIVE effect for Brown from the recent press coverage?

  32. @Neil A

    I look at these daily polls as a weekly poll. Pick your own starting point, and work from there.

  33. @jakob – for an answer to your question about conservative reactions to further poll narrowing it might be instructive to read the conservativehome web page, and the party supporters postings on these polls. It’s quite astonishing how uniform is the dislike among self identifying tories – at least those passionate enough to comment – for David Cameron and the direction of the party’s policies (ie not being right wing enough). They seem to be split between those who want to replace him asap and those who wish to keep quiet for he party’s sake until the election is over while still professing their personal dislike.

    This may not differentiate the tory party from labour supporters on many occassions, but its a mood and attitude, if its widespread, which doesn’t seem to be touched on in the mainstream press or tv coverage. It’s very enlightening. There’s a real nervousness there.

  34. Yariv – it’s possible, you never know. Brown does worst when he is at his meekest & most supine; when he goes on to the attack he does much better. This publicity might, rightly or wrongly, reinforce the more positive public perceptions of him.

    Philip JW you are guilty of wishful thinking I am afraid.

  35. @Gattino,

    Cameron’s main appeal to the rank and file was his electability. If he loses that then of course it will reduce support for him. Be careful about assuming that the sorts of people who skulk about on political message boards are representative of the party faithful however. I think the majority of Tories know that elections are won in the middle ground and that Cameron is their best bet for appealing to those voters.

  36. Tomorrow’s Metro, 9 point tory lead…

  37. That Metro poll is from Harris, which is a real “blast from the past pollster.”

  38. Anthony is the Metro poll one we should consider?

  39. Metro vote shares are 39/30/22

  40. AlJ Anthony included Harris in his list of 2005-2010 polls when they last polled in June 2009;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention

  41. Everyone here is talking about 6 point YouGov Conservative leads and the possibility of it falling. Why is the latest Angus Reid Tory lead of 12 points being ignored? Also there is a swing of 12% from Labour to the Conservatives in the marginals.

  42. Stuart Smith

    Anthony likes to keep threads open so that relevant stuff can be discussed in context. The previous thread on the AR poll is still open.

  43. Oldnat is the metro poll relevant ie polling sample or proper methodology?

  44. LD tax policy is finding favour with voters, perhaps? No tax on earnings below $10k is simple to understand so it’s an easy sell.

  45. So Ar =12
    Yougov = 6
    Harris = 9

    9 +/- moe 3?

  46. Al J

    It’s so long since Harris did a political poll, I’ve no idea!

    We’ll need to wait for Anthony’s assessment, I think.

  47. Amber Star

    I’m sticking with my assessment near the top of this thread. Cynicism about politicians runs so deep after the expenses scandal, that policy statements from parties are goig to make no difference.

    I have a gut feeling that, whatever people say to pollsters, there’s a lack of faith that any of them will be any different, and more people than usual are not going to make a real choice till they’re actually in the voting booth with a pencil in their hand and a list of candidates in front of them.

  48. Darren Bunt:

    We don’t know when Harris was comissioned, we’ve also since the fieldwork for AR was complete had 5 polls (4 YouGov/1 ICM) showing the lead at 6/7%.

  49. Ben When was the polling done by harris?

    Oldnat thanks

    Amber LD tax policy is easy to relate to for most people -you are right.

  50. Al J

    This was Anthony’s surprised reaction to a Harris poll that appeared in the Metro last June. He outlines their methodology.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2185

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