Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures, with changes from yesterday, of CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). An increase in Lib Dem support from the others, but Labour and the Conservatives are unchanged. YouGov’s lead has been steady at six points for four days now, if there was going to be any effect from the “Brown Bully” allegations, then I think we should have seen it by now.


92 Responses to “YouGov’s lead remains at 6 points”

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  1. AL J: I believe it finished on the 22nd!

  2. Al J

    This was Anthony’s description of the Harris methodology last time they polled in June 09 – no wonder I put them out of my mind! :-)

    “For those interested in methodology, Harris are on online company with their own panel, like YouGov. Their polls are weighted by age, gender, educational achievement, region and internet usage, but not it would seem by past vote or party ID (in fact, the recalled past vote in the tables looks very odd indeed – in their unweighted sample Harris found more people claiming to have voted Tory in 2005 than Labour, so hopefully the weighting corrected that!). Instead Harris use something they call “propensity score weighting”, a proprietory weighting they say corrects for behavioural and attitudinal biases from different peoples likelihood to be online. Exactly how it does so, we don’t know.

    While Harris did ask how likely people would be to vote, they do not appear to have weighted or filtered by it.”

  3. Ben thanks

    Oldnat -thats interesting -wonder what Anthony will say tomorrow!!

    Off to bed. G nite all ;-)

  4. Very encouraging for Labour! I predict a statistical dead heat for Lab/Con come election time.

  5. @Darren Bunt

    The pollsters give consistently differing results (particularly AR) because of different methodology, so margin of error can’t be used to explain differences between pollsters.

  6. VOODOO POLL ALERT

    Scottish Sun: ‘SNP slump gives Labour lead’

    “LABOUR is set for success in Scotland at the upcoming election with a massive 22 point lead over the SNP.

    Our latest poll shows support for Alex Salmond’s Nats has slumped to only 20 per cent – falling a THIRD since their 2007 Holyrood victory.”

    Err… for a start it was a WESTMINSTER v.i. poll, not Holyrood. For seconds: it was a tiny unweighted sub-sample.

  7. Is this the same Stuart Dickson who manages to drag the Scottish sub-samples along to this site when he wants to knock the Lib Dems?!

    We know that the SNP are in trouble for Westminster because even they stopped asking about voting intentions for Westminster when they pay for their own polls.

  8. Stuart – er, no it isn’t. It was a sample of 667, so smaller than we’d normally see but not absurdly so (the margin of error on it would go up to 3.8%), but all properly weighted.

  9. Harris Poll for Metro. Tory 39, Lab 30 & LD 22

  10. Re possible further narrowing in the polls:
    Interested to read some vox pop feelings about cutting the deficit sooner and faster -v- later and slower. My impression is that people working in the financial sector like sooner and faster. However people in main street seem to be more wary. Has there been any polling on this issue?
    While in reality there may not be so much difference in Con and Lab positions on reigning in the deficit, the narratives the parties are developing seem to be playing up a difference. I wonder whether when it comes down to it, ordinary people, given the economic arguments are difficult to choose between, will feel safer with the ‘later and slower’ narrative for fear of how ordinary people will be affected.
    Would be really interested to see polling information which might indicate the trend of attitudes in this respect,,,

  11. Anthony

    Does Harris get included with your running averages-
    and for projected seats?

  12. Tom

    I would think on balance ”ordinary” people will vote for ”later & slower ” since they are more likely to suffer.

  13. “I would think on balance ”ordinary” people will vote for ”later & slower ” since they are more likely to suffer.”

    They probably will ALJ.

    But it’s what they will actually get that will affect them.

    And they won’t know that till after the GE.

  14. Metro/Harris poll have lead of 9 points – 39/30/22.

    Haven’y seen the full data yet, but is in today’s print copy under headline “Cameron goes 9 points ahead of Bully Brown”

  15. @Tom – “My impression is that people working in the financial sector like sooner and faster.”

    This from a report by UBS, one of the world’s largest currency dealers. They think that cutting the deficit too rapidly would – “endanger tax revenues, Britain’s sovereign rating, the recovery of the banking sector and the UK labour market,”. Their thinking is clearly that cutting the deficit too rapidly would endanger growth, and further stunt tax revenues. At this point they talk of a renewed and uncontrolled slump in the pound and at this point investors will take fright about UK’s ability to maintain debt payments and they project a crisis in sovereign debt of precisely the type that Osborne warns Labour would bring. Yesterday the IMF also backed a slower deficit reduction plan, and the 3:1 margin of recent economists letter writers on the issue in favour of the governments line seems a fair assessment of the balance of thinking on this. I would say that, on balance, the financial types are more suportive of the Labour line than the Tory policy, although this is hedged by the fact that neither party has been very clear about what their specific policies are.

    On the polls, there is clearly deep anxiety within Tory ranks now. (Pro Tories – don’t tell me this is just hearsay – you’ve just spent a week telling us Bullygate rumours = fact, so accept this one in the same vein). If the Tories believed AR polls, why would they be worried? This, more than anything else, might tell us how to rate the various polling organisations.

  16. I very much hope that my comments yesterday to Sue, Amber and on “our side” Trevorsden, prove that I believe the Conservative Party needs to have a serious look at itself vis a vis the political polls.

    However, the marginal polls, finally with some evidence look good for the Tories, it cannot be disputed. Neil pointed out last evening that even by reducing the AR Tory lead by 4 points, it still looked very good for Cameron. Today, finds me in a 2nd childhood with the name Harris back in the polling headlines. At once, despite Mike Smithsons very supportive remarks about Harris, its “Anthony can they be trusted ect ect “. Clearly they can, based on status reputation and history, as MS has already explained in reporting the poll.
    Please Labour supporters, dont worry about the Tories cracking under pressure just look after your own affairs. Also please avoid the desperation of critisising every polling company which gives the Conservatives more than a 6 point lead.

  17. **If the Tories believed AR polls, why would they be worried? **

    Exactly

    Something isn’t right -ruse? Naughty tricks I don’t know.

    But It doesn’t make sense. Also, why would a *very private* meeting be leaked if there were just 4 top level people in it?

    Mmmm

  18. @ TOM

    “While in reality there may not be so much difference in Con and Lab positions ”

    After Osborne’s MAIS Lecture yesterday that is abundantly apparent.-at least in terms of fiscal effect in 2010.

    In terms of intent & planning, Osborne sought to set out more of both than Labour.

    Certainly he has set out the macro/micro prudential regulatory structures he plans in absolute detail now, together with the intellectual credentials he quotes for them.

    In terms of the timing of public spending cuts, however, his programme now is :-

    A review of the State of The Public Finances by the new OBR under Sir Alan Budd.

    Budget in 50 days setting out “the overall fiscal path and spending totals that we will stick to ”

    Departmental Spending Review in the Autumn:-“Over the Summer we will work flat out to conduct the detailed departmental Spending Review for the years after 2011.

    As for 2010?….”We will take targeted steps to reduce some budgets in-year – and we have set out some specific examples – in order to build credibility and make a start on reducing the deficit. ”

    So the idea that “massive cuts” will be in place AND in effect during 2010 is nonsense really.
    I think it always was-and this timetable shows that.

    It is beyond me why GO has allowed GB tp portray the above timetable as “swinging cuts in 2010”.

    We must await the GE campaign for these debates, when Manifestos are out & on the table.

    I am really sick of this phoney war.
    The debate on the Stafford Hospital fiasco was very poorly attended.
    PMQs is a disgrace.
    There is no point to this Parliament any more.
    The GE should be called.

  19. @ALEC……………Beware UBS bankers motives. They obviously have an agenda and never make objective statements, they have to support their own position but never declare their interest. These guys are not economists they are bankers, remember !

  20. @COLIN
    I absolutely agree.

    @AL J
    I am sorry I did not understand one word of that post.
    However I gather its suppose to discredit the AR poll once again. I simply have to say, that this refusal to accept anything but bad results for one party is every bit as partisan as you posting Cameron is a lying Bullingdon gay boy every day.

  21. @KEN
    Thats a gem.

  22. ROLAND

    At least we won’t hear anymore of “Bullingdon Bully” anymore.

  23. @Ken – don’t really agree. This was a strategy paper for the bank. To them, it doesn’t matter which currencies move in which direction. In fact, if they publish projections that turn out to be wildly wrong, they lose money, as they will lose clients – remember thay are making money from other peopl’s investments. They really don’t care – so long as they make the right calls they make money, so I just don’t see any benefit for them distorting things in some kind of conspiracy. Especially when the governor of the BoE also agrees that poor growth, rather than large deficit, is the most pressing issue for UK policy makers.

  24. @ALEC…………….I don’t think there is a conspiracy, just that there is no objectivity. Whenever there are conflicting arguments there are reasons, those reasons drive each argument, drill down to find the agenda.
    As far as the BOE is concerned, I don’t think you need to be a genius to recognise that they ebb and flow, I put that down to the phases of the moon. :-)

  25. Roland

    I was merely asking a question -if AR shows a Tory lead in the marginals of 14% -why are they panicking? I wasn’t out to dicredit the poll but I am allowed to have ny own opinion -aren’t I ?

    **is every bit as partisan as you posting Cameron is a lying Bullingdon gay boy every day.**

    Please tell me where I was abusive!

    The example you give is a tad homophobic if you don’t mind me saying.

  26. “The example you give is a tad homophobic if you don’t mind me saying.”

    Oh for crying out loud.

    Can’t you people see a humourous reference without applying the PC book of Rules to it ?

  27. @AL J
    Surely any sensible leader would plan for the worst and hope for the best?

    IF tory HQ are questioning their strategy in light of a number of polls and not relying on one favourable one then that would sensible. I am not sure it would be classed as ‘panic’ just good leadership.

  28. Colin

    Gemtly does it.

    If it was in humour I do apologise -it didn’t look like it to me though. It seemed rather stern and austere- oh a bit like Osborne’s ”austerity cuts” lol

  29. @Don’t Tell em Pike – it has been classed as a ‘panic’ by people who apparently know what was said at a meeting of Cameron’s top 4 advisers and many other senior Tory figures. The stories also suggest that the Tories don’t know what the problem is. This smells a little like panic to me.

  30. “people who apparently know what was said at a meeting ”

    Who are they ALEC?

    Do tell-would like to read it too.

    Thanks

  31. There’s been a leak – is it a ruse?

  32. @Andrew Myers

    A 9 point Labour Lead geve them a majority of 166 seats in 2001 whilst an identical Tory Lead now gives a hung parliament!!

    What on earth is going on? Something very unfair and biased here – why aren’t the Tories kicking up about it?

    And that’s not a partisan comment by the way – it is just a question of being fair. A 9 point Labour lead should deliever a similar result to a 9 point Tory lead give or take a few seats.

    —————–

    This often crops up.

    There are several reasons for it, but the key point which is always (always) overlooked is that – in a constituency based election – it is practically impossible to avoid this kind of bias.

    Bear with me and I’ll try to explain why this is the case.

    1. Imagine there are 100 seats. And that they are shared absolutely equally amongst a population of 1,000,000 people. So that there is an electorate of exactly 10,000 in each seat.

    2. Now imagine – for the sake of argument – that 45 of those seats are safe Conservative and 55 of them are safe Labour. And, because they are such safe seats, only Conservatives vote in their safe seats and only Labour supporters vote in their safe seats.

    3. Now imagine that there is an election. And each party wins their safe seats.

    You now have 55 Labour MP’s and 45 Conservative.

    Labour form government.

    And the system would seem to be completely fair.

    Agreed?

    Ah, but wait a minute….

    4. It turns out that the turnout in those safe Conservative seats was 75% – but only 45% in those safe Labour seats.

    So, in fact 337,500 people voted Conservative (33.7% of the populace) and only 247,500 people voted Labour (24.7% of the populace).

    And yet Labour are clearly the winners!

    In other words, in an absolutely perfectly balanced – albeit very hypothetical situation – the Conservatives lose an election by 10 seats even though they had 9% of the vote more than Labour…

    And that, amongst some other problems, is why Labour can win an election with a lower percentage of the total votes cast than the Conservatives can.

    Hope that helps clarify it!

  33. Im appalled that people think it is fine to use homophobic sentences, and then have the cheek to say people are being PC when they stand up and say something! So it’s ok to use the n word is it? no, i didnt think so. This is a political POLLING website and I’m quite certain its possible just to comment on the polls and the upcoming election without talking such nonsense and throwing your teddies out of your prams..

  34. Getting back to business….
    The narrowing of the polls is down to a few things:
    1. Out of recession
    2. Brown on morgan interview
    3. 60 economists back Darling / 20 back Osborne (ouch!)
    4. All these people trying to bring down GB are having the opposite effect as his approval ratings are starting to rise. i.e. The sun’s cowardly attack on his handwriting didnt exactly work out for the tabloid. And all this bullygate nonsense is a load of bull!
    If the lead narrows any further then it looks like Labour could return with a minority government :-)

  35. Naylor

    You can be my chum for life :-)

    It’s a bit funny being made to feel that I’d over-reacted – when I hadn’t.

  36. Is the Tory “panic” from the same, unnamed, unattributable sources as the Brown “bullying”?

    If so can we ignore it as per our earlier agreement?

  37. I don’t think there’s much doubt that Brown isn’t a very nice man when things go against him. However more important is that Cameron is giving a good impression of Edward Heath during his Premiership – lots of tough talking followed almost immediately by U-turns weakness and dither. Farage’s blast appears to have impressed those he wanted to impress so that means more worry for the Tories.
    I felt that the Stafford Hospital issues pointed out that no party really is very interested in that sort of voter.

  38. @ AL J

    I’ll be your chum for life – depends who you vote for on election day though hehe :-)

  39. @ David in France

    Thanks for the explanation – it does begin to make sense but if Brown is returned as Prime Minister I think I might come and join you in France!

  40. You Gov tonight (26th) shows

    CON 39% (+1)
    LAB 33% (+1)
    LD 16% (-3)
    Other 12% (-2)

  41. If Gordon Brown is still Prime Minister after election day, I’m staying right here, in Ken Clarke’s constituency (just to rub it in) and drinking champagne to celebrate another term in office :-)

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