YouGov’s Daily poll in the Sun is out, and has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc). That’s three days in a row with a 6 point Conservative lead, pretty much confirming that things really have narrowing and adding to the evidence that the “Bully Brown” row has not had any negative effect upon Labour’s support.


172 Responses to “YouGov daily poll – 38/32/17”

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  1. Re survey on bullying in whitehall but less than average in No. 10

    When these surveys are done. Procedures are got down, dusted., read, reread, updated. All managers briefed even CEO’s on how to get best out of staff. All staff reminded of procedures. I would be very surprised if this did not happen in No. 10. No.10 should be at the forefront of such activity as an example. Gus O’ would also have been briefed on how to get best out of staff, its a topic of discussion that ocurs in all organisations. Its presumably his job to talk to GB about this, all managers want efficient offices that run smoothly.
    Of course not saying this is what occured here.
    I hear No.10 has a new open plan office, that would be important in that environment.

  2. James – any names? I think is what Gattino was after.

  3. @ John TT – you talk about my “prejudice”. I’m telling you that I am an ex-Labour supporter because of the vicious conduct of Brown, Balls, Mandelson and co.

    You suggest that I cite their behaviour because of political “prejudice” against Labour. In fact, I’ve turned against Labour because of their behaviour over a number of years. I was raised to stand up to bullies and intimidation, and to despise cowardice and liars. I appreciate that this is considered old-fashioned when we have polls telling us that 22% believe that bullying is fine. But I’d rather be old-fashioned than a tribalist cheerleader for bullies.

  4. @SUE MARSH
    God I am in an agreeable mood today. Yes, your post is absolutely correct in my view. Certainly the last 13 years and GB as a combination tells me that Mickey Mouse should be able to win the GE. Of course others would say when Cameron is as good as Mickey Mouse we will face the consequenses. The fact is you are right and the Tories have a fight on.

  5. James – still no names or examples then, just hearsay? I stand for fair play and have been a floating voter since I started voting (for Thatcher as it happened)

    I can’t believe that out 9f hundreds of cases there is no-one standing up and saying where and when and what and how Gordon Brown bullied them.

  6. When the Pensioners go to the polls, they will think about their Winter Fuel Payment, free TV licence and bus passes.
    When Mums go to the polls, they’ll think about their tax credits, free nursery places and sure start centres.
    When Finance Types go to the polls, they will be wondering whether Osborne can run the economy.
    When Liberal-lefties go to the polls, they’ll be thinking about Global debt and foreign aid and human rights.
    When public service workers go to the polls they’ll be thinking about their jobs.

    That list isn’t meant to be a party political broadcast, I’m trying to explain to disbelieving Tories why Europe, the Iraq war and selling off gold reserves, inheritance tax, austerity and Time for Change” aren’t getting through.

    At this point in 97 TB sounded like a broken policy record!! He couldn’t blink without spluttering out the words “education,education,education” or “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”. The Tories ought to be driving their policies home with every breath, in every interview, in every paper and on every blog. That’s why the polls are narrowing. DC needs an answer to all the points I listed or he won’t win the electorate.

  7. Of course there are no named victims of the allegations. That’s what “journalists sources” are all about. If there was a named victim they would have been assailed remorselessly and hounded out of Whitehall by now. I am quite happy for us to have a policy of ignoring any third-party allegations made against any individual or organisation by a journalist who doesn’t name their source. But it has to be across the board and apply to Labour, Tories, newspapers, the Police, the intelligence services and everywhere else the journalists go looking for scut…

  8. James Ludlow – please, I’m reduced to begging now, you continue to cite as fact Brown is a bully, that you’re persuaded by the hundreds of revelations. And yet still, we can’t get to the bottom of who it is you have been persuaded by evidence to believe is a victim of his bullying.

    Pratt doesn’t accuse him of it, Darling doesn;t accuse him of it, Rawnsley says he doesn’t accuse of anything more than a self confessed temper, and the supposedly more disturbing incidents were names are mentioned the individuals have denied it.

    So please who is he meant to have bullied? Just a name, so I can go and check out the story. You can have my first born child sacrificed on the altar of the Goddess maggie if you’d do me this favour.

  9. Roland –
    “This mistake let Brown of the hook. Considering the ammo, not a bad effort by DC but not great.”

    Missed the target from point blank range – something wrong with his afore-mentioned gears.

    The shrink in GDP since the crunch is obvious ammo.

    He’s sh*t himself in the foot there!

  10. Discussing polls and coalescing it into the Rawnsley allegations its worth remembering what he says about polls at that time
    “In one, Labour’s lead was cut from 11 points to four. In another, a 10-point lead shrivelled to three. In a third, the Tories had closed an eight-point gap since the start of the conference season to get neck and neck.”

    We now have a significant Tory lead. Not big, maybe, maybe, not big enough, but quite a turnaround.

  11. Neil A

    ” I am quite happy for us to have a policy of ignoring any third-party allegations made against any individual or organisation by a journalist who doesn’t name their source”

    Good, thank goodness that’s cleared up then.

    Whistleblowers are more protected now than ever. in this case, there are no whistleblowers, so it’s not surprising the electorate are not buying it.

  12. This election is there for the tories to win or lose. Labour wont win it but the tories may lose it. Sue Marsh I agree DC needs to hit home his policies. I know them and they are clear to see on the tory website but people want to hear them. I am a tory and worry about this election because DC should be 20 points in the lead with the mess labour have created.

    [Snip… no, no, no. I’m drawing a line very early to make sure we never approach the bloody awful conversation you get on PBC after PMQs with trails of either side’s partisan supporters saying “DC won” “No GB won”. Not the place – AW]

  13. @ Sue Marsh
    in 97 Blair was busy thinking of ways to spend the benefits of Tory growth.

    Today we have to think about different ways to make cuts.

  14. OldNat/Tom

    Not everyone agrees with you OldNat. The woman who has shared my bed for nearly half a century prefers naked male flesh. Admittedly she has made complaints about an excessive quantity of it in recent years but in some parts still give satisfaction.

    I think you will find that there is clear polling evidence that, despite the more recently recognised and vocal minority who take an opposing view, there is a strong gender correlation to preferences for naked male and female flesh and that in a legislature such as the Scottish Parliament where a more representative balance exists there is greater attention to child health and education and indeed an absence of bullying and instead there is more of a focus on grown up politics compared with the failed and out of date Westminster parliament.

    Adam Smith was wrong. The economic motive is a male response to ensure ones genes survive in the gene pool. More food will feed more women and children, giving access to more women, and your preference and mine is part of that, but the strongest human instinct is actually the female equivalent, the maternal instinct.

  15. See Trevorsden, missing the point.
    18 months ago, the Tories were riding high, there was no appetite for Brown OR Labour and they consistently had a lead of 15 – 20 points.

    At that time, you’re talking about a stale government and a fresh young hopeful Tory. Now you have a stale Tory and a “Better the Devil You Know” Govmt

    Moral of the story?

    Policy Policy Policy

  16. @Craig U – “I know them and they are clear to see on the tory website…” Really? My understanding is that the Tories recent policy releases have nearly all been ‘draft manifestos…’. As yet, in my view, we have almost no specific policy pledges that I can see are definate, settled ‘cast iron’ policies.

    I think Sue marsh’s observation is absolutely correct – Blair by now had distilled his appeal into a very small number of distinct policies/soundbites* [*delete as appropriate according to your opinions] and it was simple to see the message. 10 weeks out and the Tories have not comitted to a clear path, and when they have they’ve managed to muddy the waters. A key point also is that if Cameron persists on personalising the election while brown’s ratings rise and his falls, he could be walking into trouble. The knockabout stuff works if the voeters are on your side, but if they are not you start undermining your own credibility.
    This has to be put into perspective though – they are still 6% ahead in the worst poll for them and by common consent are doing better in the marginals. I don’t think, however, that this is to Cameron’s credit – it says more about how low Brown took Labour.

  17. @SUE MARSH
    Must not defend the wicked Tories Sue but pensioners are very unlikely to see the sunlit uplands of Browns Britain unless they are northern tribalists.
    As for financial types (I used to be one,) there may be uncertainty about Osbourne but there is absolute certainty about Brown/Darling and it ain’t good.
    As I said earlier the Tories had better buck up but they are still in front. The AR marginal poll later will be interesting. If it shows real benefit for the Tories, be prepared for screeds of critisism regarding AR methods.

  18. Should have been ‘not’ to cameron’s credit..

  19. What’s more Trevorsden, people believed (rightly or wrongly) that the growth you talk of had come at the EXPENSE of public services, education, community.
    They didn’t and don’t care. They want to know how you will run the country first.

  20. Aha Roland, but the Daily Mail Pensioners or the Mirror Pensioners? (Or even the Chelsea Pensioners lol)
    I work in the very worst kind of finance :) and the last few weeks have NOT been good for Ozzy. The tide has turned IMO and only partisan Tories now defend his economic stance.
    Also, pensioners do have much to be cross about, but the point is have the Tories offered them anything better or just frightened them that things could get worse??

  21. @ SUE MARSH

    You have 24 hours to save the NHS

    Great Labour policy & memorable soundbite in one.

  22. “The woman who has shared my bed for nearly half a century prefers naked male flesh. ”

    Anthony,

    Do something about these people… thats way to much information…..

    Peter.

  23. OldNat/Tom

    Not everyone agrees with you OldNat. The woman who has shared my bed for nearly half a century prefers naked male flesh. Admittedly she has made complaints about an excessive quantity of it in recent years but in some parts still give satisfaction.

    I think you will find that there is clear polling evidence that, despite the more recently recognised and vocal minority who take an opposing view, there is a strong gender correlation to preferences for naked male and female flesh and that in a legislature such as the Scottish Parliament where a more representative balance exists there is greater attention to child health and education and indeed an absence of bullying and instead there is more of a focus on grown up politics compared with the failed and out of date Westminster parliament.

    Adam Smith was wrong. The economic motive is a male response to ensure ones genes survive in the gene pool. More food will feed more women and children, giving access to more women, and your preference and mine is part of that, but the strongest human instinct is actually the female equivalent, the maternal instinct

  24. Anyway, shall go out for a bit and stop telling Tories how to win elections. Damn silly thing to be doing…..

  25. @ ALEC

    RE: I don’t think, however, that this is to Cameron’s credit – it says more about how low Brown took Labour.

    I’d say it was the Global Recession that brought Brown & Labour low.

    Out on the streets, Brown was never as ‘loathed’ as the media would have us believe.

    It is sinking in with people that there really is a global recession. And UK (Brown) isn’t the only country who didn’t save for a rainy day. Most of the EU, Iceland, US & Japan are averaging about the same as the UK.

    Economic & financial geeks (like me) can debate the detail but the majority only see the headlines which amount to: “Western nations are all in this together.”

  26. James:

    “Cameron is a demagogue; if he does get it in, all this New Conservatism ‘call me Dave’ lark will disappear once he gets an earful from his back benchers.”

    While I agree with most of the rest of your posting,that is not a danger. The unprecedentedly large new intake of Con MP’s will be subservient in their first term, and the returning MP’s barely enough to fill the payroll vote without promoting cheats, fornicators, alcoholics and incompetents. Nationalists of various sorts will give a bit of leeway on English-only matters and the SNP and UU can be bought off in a vote of confidence though the price will be high.

  27. Greece has done us a favour (sadly for them). Just proves Brown wasn’t responsible for the recession – as some would want us to believe.

    Fair Future For All

    Has a nice ring to it ;-)

  28. I am sure the following website (pointed out by Dizzy Thinks) will have an effect on polls

    http://futurefairforall.org/

    Sue — take a look at the polls just after the expenses scandal broke.
    Tories have never been seriously 20 points ahead. Labour have moved up from 28ish to 32ish – for sure, but we are in the middle of a pre election ‘boom’ after all.

    I am surprised no one picked up on my comment on the previous thread about Mr Smithson’s comments on how some polls redistribute recipients who say they WNV or are DKs.
    Ignore that, he points out, and a lead moves from 7 to 9.

    Its another example of manipulation and weighting which may have gone too far.

  29. Sounds much better than

    ** Tighten your belts for an austerity decade**

  30. @GATTINO
    @JOHN B DICK

    As a interesting little exercise I have counted up that out of the 140 (odd) retiring MP’s 90 of them are form the labour party. I can see the point that you are trying to make GATTINO (there are more Labour mp’s) but this is not statistically representative of the house. MANY more labour MP’s are leaving at the next GE.

    JOHN B DICK I don’t think that Cameron will be the only one in charge of a group of fresh facers!

  31. Think I wll get to the betting shop now to back labour before their odds shorten further

  32. Angus Reid marginals poll should be out later this afternoon.

  33. @ trevorsden – I had a good look at the website – actually I think it could be another own goal. Two of the stories just aren’t true and one is highly questionable.
    It STILL doesn’t give any idea of what the Tories will do about it.
    The negative campaigning isn’t working – why isn’t that message getting through?

  34. @GREYBEARD

    I think any critism of lack of coherant policy should be saved until AFTER the manfesto launch. Otherwise all this finger pointing will make you look silly.
    The tories may be saving their policy announcements for after the manifesto launch to prevent them from being hijacked.
    Of course if post launch the policies are ‘incoherant’ and ‘pointless’.. Ridicule away.

  35. Mark Johnson – Chadderton – Lancashire

    “Do you really want 5 more years of this man and his worn out discredited government’?”

    What then do you say to those 19% of Scots who think that Labour is “tired and failing” but despite that prefer it to a Conservative government. Do you think they are thinking “Never mind the economy, illegal wars and the such, what we want is more failure please, we like it!”?

    Alec and Sue Marsh have a message for you.

    I’ve just seen PMQ and Nicola Sturgeon under fire in the SP for helping a constituent, inappropriately in the view of some. The one was a disgraceful schoolboy rabble, the other treated a serious issue with dignity.

    If MSP’s behaved in the fashion MP’s do they would be suspended for a month and they would suffer at the polls.

    The contrast was enough to make you vote for independence. It really was, and I will, but it’s not what I really want either.

  36. The recent perforamance of Cameron and Osborne has been pretty poor, but it is a little unkind to accuse them of having no policies.

    The problem is that there is only one real political issue facing the UK. Cuts.

    All that matters is 1) what will be cut, 2) how much it will be cut by, 3) how fast it will be cut, 4) to what extent tax rises could or should reduce the extent of the cuts, 5) to what extent borrowing could or should be used to reduce the urgency and rate of the cuts.

    In that context its a little hard to come out with policies that involve offering anything extra to the public. Once the government dropped their “Tory cuts versus Labour investment” line – which was a patent falsehood in my opinion – all that was left was arguing over details. “I will hurt you more than my opponent” is a very hard sell for the Tories. They have searched around in vain for small- pricetag, “this is our philosophy” policies like married tax status, and have failed to hit on anything that really resonates.

    @Al J,

    Of course Brown didn’t cause the recession. Noone is enough of a superman (or supervillain) to achieve that on their own. He has to take some collective responsibility with all the other leaders that presided over the asset bubble, but that’s not really the point. The Greeks didn’t cause the recession either. What they did do was to run public finances that were so askew that when the train came down the tracks they were tied to the rails with no way to wriggle out of the way. To a lesser extent that is Brown’s offence as well. He tried to build Jerusalem with all of the tax receipts the asset bubble stuffed into the coffers, leaving us with a public spending budget that we now cannot afford to meet and and won’t be able to for a very long time.

  37. John B Dick

    Like you, I saw both. The contrast was staggering.

    Even FMQs in the Scottish Parliament are more civilized than PMQs. I did like Bercow’s reminder to them (which had no effect) that they need to consider how that behaviour is seen by the electorate.

  38. @NEIL A
    Quite agree- come to gloucestershire and I will by you a drink.

  39. @DAVID GREYBEARD
    I watched PMQ and I scored it above. Gordon Brown is Prime Minister and yes its very very serious.

  40. DTePike – “Of course if post launch the policies are ‘incoherant’ and ‘pointless’.. Ridicule away.”

    Not on this website – ridiculing other parties really doesn’t come into the comment policy here. There are several new faces around – please read the comments policy (Tom – it was a delight to see someone reading it and actually getting it – welcome), this a place to step a take back and have a detached discussion of the polls, not for arguing about politics or scoring political points.

    Please, stop bloody arguing about whether the “Bully Brown” allegations are true or not, for our purposes, all that matters is whether it affects public opinion of Brown and, so far, it’s looking like it hasn’t had any effect at all. Alec – your attempts to shut the silliness down are noted and appreciated!

  41. RE: Brown should have saved for a rainy day.

    1. Chrystal Balls throughout the world failed to work. Almost no governments saved for a rainy day.

    2. Those who did follow such a policy – e.g. Clinton were accused of hoarding the tax payers money. This resulted in:
    – Republican campaigning on the promise of giving people back their money.
    – Democrats being angry that Clinton wasn’t prepared to spend on jobs, services & welfare.
    – Bush having a program of tax cutting (for the wealthy) & war spending while in government.

    The US are facing the recession with an empty piggy bank too – despite Clinton & the deficit hawks.

    Sorry Anthony, I know I said I wasn’t going to get into the detail of this but I am such a finance geek, I couldn’t control myself ;-)

  42. ARS poll

    38 (-2)
    26 (nc)
    19 (+1)

  43. Noted Anthony ;-)

    Please could you tell us are there any more polls due soon.

    Oldnat thinks an AR one is due this PM?

    Thanks

  44. @AW
    I am sorry, I was just angered by some post’s that were offering ‘factless’ critism.
    I will be good ‘non-Pike’ from now on.

    Incidently I came across some research that suggested a 3 day lag between news headlines and results in polls. Would be interesting to timeline events (on a daily basis) and the subsequent polling figures. Just wish I could remember where I found the bloody research!

  45. Aww

    Tories down to 38 -must be real ;-)

  46. Details over on PB but

    “PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals”

  47. Anthony,

    My last post was a follow up to my earlier one. I was saying that I believe – on the economy – that voters are beginning to take the view that it was a global recession. And they can see: On average most countries are not where they’d like to be financially.

    The voters are looking at what is happening now & which party has the best recession economy policies.

    So, my apologies for talking around the subject last post; I should have referred back to my original at the time.

  48. 38/28/19 = Con 24 seat majority

  49. Sorry make that

    38/26/19 = Con 24 seat majority

  50. @TREVORSDEN
    I picked up on Mikes article and mentioned it to AW hopeing to get his opinion. It sounds very sensible although of course a resident Labour supporter pulled it to bits. The point is whether it makes sense or not we are going backwards and its got to stop. The friends of Labour are having a high old time at present
    as potential trouble passes them by on the other side.
    When the AR marginals poll comes out later, IF it has got pleasing news for us, no resting on laurels are allowed. We need to be back in 12/14 ONS country.

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