YouGov’s Daily poll in the Sun is out, and has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc). That’s three days in a row with a 6 point Conservative lead, pretty much confirming that things really have narrowing and adding to the evidence that the “Bully Brown” row has not had any negative effect upon Labour’s support.


172 Responses to “YouGov daily poll – 38/32/17”

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  1. So we will be getting these results released at 10pm every night now. Will put an end to situations like last night’s at least.

    This can bee seen as, from YouGov’s 17/02 poll, Con -1, Lab +2, LD -1. Well within moe.

  2. Others up to 13%? That really seems absurdly high to me. How do they break down?

  3. The header say 39 – 33 – 17 when the figures are 38-32-17

  4. Cannot understand how 32% are still voting for Brown !!!

  5. Cannot understand how 70% are still voting for Cameron or Brown !!!

  6. Yes Anthony, you need to correct the headline figures, otherwise you may start another twitter poll rumour.

  7. seems logical
    there are quite some brits who are fed up with all major parties (and each “scandal” reinforces that feeling)

    –> others are up

    and quite some don´t want labour but neither want tories and ignore all else
    so how will they decide in the end
    which is the lesser of two evils
    i think that question will become quite important

    an other thing to watch will be the poll of the marginals over at http://www2.politicalbetting.com tomorrow conducted by ar

  8. On a slightly different tack but related, CMS Select Committee just reported on Murdoch media intercepting private communications. Andy Coulson comes in for strong criticism…:

    As reported in the Independent:
    “The report was critical of the former News of the World editor Andy Coulson, who is now the director of communications for David Cameron at the Conservative party. Although the committee said it had “seen no evidence” that Coulson, who was questioned by the MPs, knew that phone hacking was taking place, it still found him culpable.

    “That such hacking took place reveals a serious management failure for which as editor he bore ultimate responsibility, and we believe that he was correct to accept this and resign.”

  9. Funnily enough Andrew, I can’t understand how 38% are voting Cameron and the Tories.

  10. Why does Coulson always get referred to as the Tories’ “director of communications” but any comparable Labour figure is a “spin doctor”?

  11. Maybe a little bit more focus on his track record and Cameron’s judgment in picking him- given the £800k tribunal award against him for bullying – proven in a court of law.

  12. “Why does Coulson always get referred to as the Tories’ “director of communications” but any comparable Labour figure is a “spin doctor”?”

    well i guess thats media-spin *g*

    on a more serious note
    new labour first used more modern methodes of communication (spin it) so it sticks
    with tories the media uses the more conservative terminus of director of communications

  13. Tom

    You wouldn’t be guilty of using this site for political spin would you?

    This from Benedict Brogan

    “The DCMS select committee report on press standards, privacy and libel has just been published tonight. Buried inside the committee “notes”, a propos of nothing, that the News of the World paid £800,000 in November 2009 to sports reporter Matt Driscoll “after persistent bullying by then editor Andy Coulson” (paragraph 450). Put aside that Mr Coulson was never asked to give evidence to the industrial tribunal or involved in the case, the issue patently has nothing to do with the matter the committee was investigating.

    So how did it get there? The paragraph was sprung on the committee by Tom Watson (above) on February 9 – a fortnight ago – when it met to finalise the report. The paragraph was voted through by 4 to 2, with the committee dividing on party lines. Mr Watson, you may remember, happens to be the former Cabinet Office minister who confirmed in a recent Parliamentary answer that there had been up to five reported cases of bullying in Downing Street. He’s also a big ally of Mr Brown’s who does a lot of his media heavy work. And a fortnight ago Number 10 – and presumably Mr Watson – knew that the Andrew Rawnsley book was imminent and likely to focus on Mr Brown’s behaviour.”

  14. Given the outspoken criticism of the cross-party CMS select comittee report some might draw a conclusion that the heavy bias of most of the tabloids towards the Conservatives may affect the way in which terminology is used and how Labour ‘spin’ -v- Conservative ‘spin’ is characterised.

  15. @Old Nat

    The general critical findings against Andy Coulson’s culpability in the phone tapping are not in dispute I think and are not according to party lines?

    I would be interested to read the findings of fact by the Tribunal – and whether allegations against Andy Coulson were undisputed – there is sometimes a reason why a witness doesn’t appear at a Tribunal, but I would want to know the facts before commenting.

  16. @Tom – I really don’t think Coulson’s ethical scrapes will have any effect on the campaign. The Guardian’s been trying to turn it into a story for ages, but all the evidence is that no swing voters care. They may come to see Cameron as a dishonest spinner, but unless Coulson does some of a McBride order of stupidity, the guy feeding Cameron his lines isn’t going to become an issue.

    @Tom Curtis – any chance of some non-partisan discussion?

  17. Tom

    Are you suggesting that the Telegraph is tabloid press?

    As someone who is interested in polling, but fairly unconcerned as to which Tory Party (Official or Provo) takes control of the UK, it’s better to read posts on here which refer to polling.

  18. Tom

    There was me trying to be delicate!

    If you are suggesting that the rise in support for “others” is a consequence of more voters deciding that neither Tory nor Labour have sufficient moral core to be worth voting for, then that would be a post related to the polling.

  19. @ Old Nat

    Well I have found this regarding the Tribunal’s findinags of fact – remember, a properly constituted court of law…it sounds like it is ‘verbatim’.

    “The tribunal found in December 2008 that Driscoll had fallen victim to “a consistent pattern of bullying behaviour”. “The original source of the hostility towards the claimant [Driscoll] was Mr Coulson, the editor; although other senior managers either took their lead from Mr Coulson and continued with his motivation after Mr Coulson’s departure; or shared his views themselves. Mr Coulson did not attend the tribunal to explain why he wanted the claimant dismissed.”

  20. Looks like people want style over substance.

    He can’t change the fact that he is a Conservative. Maybe people just think that New Labour’s Third Way is superior to Conservatism. Lord Tebbitt and Nicolas Winterton just reinforce the view that Conservative ideology is stuck in the past. It isn’t progressive. Cameron has not made Green issues a priority, will cut the BBC, has said he won’t reform the House of Lords, is opposed to a fairer voting system, plans to all but privatise the NHS, plans to let anyone open schools (even if it is some evangelic Christian on a mission), plans to give wealthy millionaires inheritance tax breaks, and is in favour of repealing the hunting ban. Not to mention he is from a wealthy banking family and went to Eton. Three members of his shadow cabinet and 15 members of his front bench team are Old Etonians.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2009/10/oxford-universitywealth-school

    Another thing is that Cameron and Osbourne are quite young and is it really the time to put them into power in this critical environment when they have shown they do not know exactly what they would do, as evidenced by their constant flip-flopping over cuts.

    Cameron is a demagogue; if he does get it in, all this New Conservatism ‘call me Dave’ lark will disappear once he gets an earful from his back benchers.

  21. JSFL/CLAD – corrected. Need sleep ;)

  22. @old nat

    I think my original post was very much related to the wider discussion about what the current effects of perceptions of key characters in the parties may have on the polls…

    I would respectfully suggest that the Telegraph is a more partisan source than an employment tribunal, or are you suggesting otherwise?

  23. Every time I come back there’s a new poll

    Now it’s 38/32/17

    Looks like the Tories have lost another point.

    Soon they’ll be crossing over with Labour. wow things have changed since I first arrived on Anthonys site -then it was a con maj of 72 Now it’s hung at -12

  24. Tom

    I fully understand the boring nonsense that goes on between Tory and Labour as both suggest the other is guilty of worse bullying than the other.

    Your original post – quite irrelevantly – introduced Coulson to the thread, with no attempt to link it to the polling.

    I’m happy to stay with the position that UK politics is pretty dreadful, but posts are interesting when they help to explain shifts in the polling numbers.

    What was the point of your original post?

  25. Why has Labour gone back to 30 points on the top right? Shouldnt it be 31 points and 18 for the Lib Dems?

  26. Survey end date for this poll is 23 Feb – not 24 Feb as shown on the listing of all polls.

  27. Things are never for ever.

    With the voting systems in Wales, Scotland and NI and Euro becoming embedded. With the minority government in Scotland seemingly to work. Coalition in Wales and NI! Green and UKIP MEP’s. Expenses row.

    The “other ” voters may have more incentive to vote “other” to make thier parties overall vote higher and in time perhaps advance. I would not be surprised if others are larger than previous at next election. whether that would hold true in all marginals is another matter.

  28. @old nat
    I agree that your postings tend to the more technical nature of polls, weighting etc from what I have seen and, of course that is interesting (with the exception of references to naked female flesh etc which could be construed as sexist!) :)

    However the discussion of the polls on here seems to be fairly broad in ambit – eg. what is likely to move the polls, how a story will develop etc…

    The key issue, in fact almost the only issue it sometimes seems, which is underdiscussion on the daily polls, is ‘bullygate’. I think it is eminently possible that this story will play out in a way which sucks in the Conservatives as well as Labour. It will be interesting to watch the daily tracker polls as this story plays out – as I think we can both agree it still has ‘feet’.

    I don’t think this is going to satisfy you, although maybe this is an issue to take up with a moderator if you still feel unhappy – my definition of related discussion is perhaps broader than yours. I would argue from your comments – that whereas my contribution is non-partisan yours’ was less so – interesting nonetheless and something I enjoyed reading.

  29. @oldnat
    This is my last posting on your earlier comments, as I am sure other readers don’t want to read an endless debate about it…however having reread the ‘Comments Policy’, I am adopting AW’s ‘rule of thumb’:
    “As a nice rule of thumb, think of it as a site about politics, not a venue for politics”

  30. RE: And other thing to watch will be the poll of the marginals over at PD tomorrow conducted by AR.

    Only an AR poll of the marginals can soothe the Tories’ jangled nerves ;-)

  31. But what is AR really are right?!!!!!… The other pollsters will have to pack up and go home!… :)

  32. Honestly I don’t think the results of an AR poll will soothe anyone’s nerves. As far as I can see, AR polls only produce a state of amusement in some and berwildement in others – that’s all that can be said for the effectiveness of AR!

  33. Did AR make predictions for the 2009 Euro elections?…

  34. Tom:

    No it didn’t. :)

  35. Tom

    :-) It’s difficult to see how comments about naked female flesh could be anything other than sexist! (even if I can’t quite remember why it interests me).

  36. Interesting article in The Times about how Cons are doing well in LibDem marginals in SW. Also says Con strategists think they are performing between 3 and 11 points better than national figures in swing seats (not sure quite how to interpret that). Presumably this means in other areas of the country Labour are doing better to compensate – tho presumably Cons would say this is pointing to more efficient distribution of the Con vote?

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7038568.ece

    @OldNat – article is next to a link to Cheryl Cole latest which I hope will be of interest to you ;)

    ALSO

    Anyone any thoughts on how the Falkland Islands/Argentina Oil situation might play out? Will it help Brown appear tough and nationalistic?

  37. @ TOM

    RE: But what is AR really are right?!!!!!…

    I must admit, I am kind of fascinated by AR’s poll results. I’m curious to see if this is a proper poll of the marginals or just another cut of the data from their regular poll being spun as a marginal poll.

    Anybody care to hazard a forecast of what their headline numbers will be (assuming we’ll be getting those as well as marginals)?

  38. Certainly the trend seems to be continuing – but I still think reality will catch up. It may also be that we are seeing core voters return to Labour in solid Labour seats but what is striking is that 71 days ago the WMA was 40:28:18 and now it’s 38:31:18 so it looks like a straight swing of 2-3 from C to L. Which makes no political sense at all as far as I can see.

    But from a statistical PoV – if the trends over the next 71 days are those of the last 71 days (a big IF but the best we can do) then we’ll see a 4% CLead.

  39. In order to believe that it really was narrowing, I’d prefer to see more pollsters coming to the same conclusion. In the list of polls, most of them seem to be YouGov and they seem to be suggesting more support of Labour than the others.

    The 24th Feb was YouGov, the 22nd Feb poll was also YouGov.

  40. AMBER

    “Only an AR poll of the marginals can soothe the Tories’ jangled nerves ”

    Actually GE campaign is what would sooth mine.

    I’m frustrated as hell watching GB nick Tory policy after from the safety of office , whilst pretending there is a GE coming, without a manifesto.

    What we need is Manifestos out. Cards on the Table, and call a General Election.

    This tactical sniping from behind the hedge is an insult to the electorate.

    But-yes-jangles are to be heard round my place ;-)

  41. @ NBEALE

    “but I still think reality will catch up”

    Ah but which reality?
    There could be many, the phycisists ( and the pollsters) tell us.

    So providing it’s the right one…..I’m waiting.

  42. physicists….got my teeth in now!

  43. But wasn’t the narrowing of the polls predicted by lots of people anyway?
    When the parties put all their cards on the table and the Tories simply show a picture of Gordon Brown alongside the brain numbing words ‘Do you really want 5 more years of this man and his worn out discredited government’?

    That should do it – as simple as that and when the real election campaign begins there will be plenty of muck thrown at each other but I still firmly believe that on the 7th May we will have David Cameron as our Prime Minister with a Majority of 20 – 50.

    Final % result.

    Con- 40-42
    Lab- 28-30
    LD- 18-20

    In other words not far off the 40 30 20 10

    Bring it on!!

  44. One of the problems with the YouGov daily poll is that it is skewing the averages towards their methodology. For instance they tend to have the Lib Dems at the lower part of the spectrum. We rally need to see an increase in the number of polls by other pollsters (wishful thinking probably) to get a more balanced view.
    A true marginal poll would be interesting but I doubt the AR poll will be on the scale needed. In the meantime the best guess on what is happening has to be taken from the trends in the two Politics Home marginal polls last year. Ifn the still hold true the Cons are likely to take more English marginal seats from Labour than UNS predicts but fewer seats from the LDs. In Scotland it looks like Labour are doing strongest, Nats struggling to match Westminster results to Holyrood performance, and both Con and LD flat-lining.

  45. Sun readers’ top five “issues” are :-

    1. The economy – 56 per cent
    2. Immigration & Asylum – 43 per cent
    3. Health – 34 per cent
    4. Crime – 30 per cent
    5. Tax – 27 per cent

    Cameron has policies for No2 -but doesn’t talk about them much.This can therefore be capitalised on by Cons.

    Cameron has a policy for 1, but, if your job and/or income substantially depends on The State, you probably don’t like it because you think that job/income is more secure under GB. This cannot be capitalised on by Cons-for that group of people.

    On 3 there isn’t much between the main parties.

    On 4 there is a latent association between Cons & Law & Order-so maybe a small advantage for CAmeron.

    On 5-who can tell what either party will actually do about main stream personal tax-or VAT?

    It’s got to be No 1 which is pulling Con’s down & bit-and pushing Lab up quite a lot.

  46. @Nbeale – “Certainly the trend seems to be continuing – but I still think reality will catch up”.
    I think the point is that it already has. You have a perpetual rosy view of the Tories that is at odds with the evidence that is continually coming forward. We have an unpopular, discredited and floundering government, yet pretty much every day now as move into the key policy battles the main oposition party is being exposed to some very critical views. For example, Osborne’s ‘radical’ plan for the bank sell off – it’s had an awful reception and clearly no one thought the plans through. Another major example is the environment – one of Cameron’s big ‘change’ ideas. We now see that the new intake of Tory MPs are not at all keen on the environment, and we’ve been sold a pup. For people tired of Labour but hesitant about the Tories, this kind of thing was what attracted them in the first place and as the image and policy unravels they are drifting back to Labour – it’s perfectly logical and completely in line with the political picture – which is why I predicted just this scenario. Lots of things could happen that take the polls the other way, but equally likely is that the gap narrows still further – it will depend on economy and events. Like many, you seem to take note of only the bits of news that suit your own standpoint, which is why you struggle to see the obvious at times like this.

    Sadly for all of us, this has now become an election choice between two poor quality politcal parties which for most voters will be based on a negative choice rather than a popular desire for one side or another.

  47. the Tories simply show a picture of Gordon Brown alongside the brain numbing words ‘Do you really want 5 more years of this man and his worn out discredited government’?

    This is pretty much the Tory strategy of the last six months that has seen them slip from 20 points ahead to 6.

    People have had long enough to decide what they think of Gordon Brown and Labour (for better or worse) now as the election nears they are asking what’s the alternative, and they discover :

    ‘the Tories simply show a picture of Gordon Brown ‘

    It might make a good advert, but you couldn’t call it a manifesto.

    Mark, you should get a job at CCHQ, you’d fit in perfectly, as you just said, bring it on.

  48. A poster of Cameron with the strap “Do You Really want five years of this?” would have the same effect – polarisation of the committed and indifference among people who are more interested in seeing economic and cultural improvement

  49. Moaning folks!
    I have just read that yet ANOTHER labour MP is standing down at the GE. There seems to be a real exodus of them at the moment. With Labour apparently gaining in the polls why are so many looking to leave?

    This is not a partisan dig, there does not seem to be the same exodus from the Conservatives.

    Can anyone offer any insight?

  50. @dont-tell-em-pike

    Yes, I can offer an insight to explain it.. There are considerably more labour mps than conservatives.

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