YouGov’s Daily poll in the Sun is out, and has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc). That’s three days in a row with a 6 point Conservative lead, pretty much confirming that things really have narrowing and adding to the evidence that the “Bully Brown” row has not had any negative effect upon Labour’s support.


172 Responses to “YouGov daily poll – 38/32/17”

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  1. @JOHN T T ……………….The culture of service regardless of treatment pervades the offices of our senior politicians. Everyone knew about J Prescott’s indiscretions, no-one blew foul. The thought of being ‘outed’ as a whistleblower, and therefore , destroying a good career is anathema to civil servants. Real fear is felt by good people who will tolerate apalling treatment by Ministers in the knowledge that a better one will come along soon, hopefully.
    The old Home Office saw 5 ministers in 5 years, the revolving door mitigates the worst excesses of some real weirdos.
    Internal training courses informing you of your, ‘right not to be abused or bullied’, are viewed with suspicion because there is always a note on file.
    I understand why people complain in confidence but they must be terrified, literally, of ‘the call upstairs’.

  2. AR Poll of 150 Lab/Con marginals (2005 figures)

    CON 42% (33)
    LAB 28% (43)
    LD 15% (17)

    Lib/Con marginlas

    CON 33% (29)
    LAB 16% (19)
    LD 39% (46)

  3. @ John B Dick

    Thanks again for quietly reminding us of the similarity between what would be grossly unacceptable MSP behaviour and the usual MPs’ rabble in Westminster.

    But I’m afraid you might as well stare at your sporran as expect an informed debate in England about what a reformed and representative Parliament and government would be like.

    Looking at the deep roots, long slow build-up and wide nature of that debate in Scotland, demonstrates no parallels in England – no cause for a claim of right, no chance of a popular convention.

    The would-be reformers’ trigger – the parliamentary expenses scandal – was mainly an exercise in widespread self-righteousness, stoked up by the usual fork-tongued media, for whom popular reform in UK govenance would be a true threat.

    The 2010 GE “debate” doesn’t even begin to respond to the deep seriousness of Westminter’s decadence – which goes way beyond expense claims – so Rupert and the Barclays and the rest of them know they have neatly set the 2010 GE stage for the rest of us, and they can all rest.easy while we dance on it.

  4. Anthony,
    Won’t Daily polling introduce systematic bias of your poll of polls as it will be highly weighted towards the Sun/YouGov polls? Are you intending to do anything about it? What about excluding the daily polls from your poll of polls and publishing a weighted average of only the Sun/YouGov polls separately?

  5. RE: AR Latest poll.

    The LAB-CON marginals
    This is based on polling in Labour’s 150 most vulnerable seats:

    Now (2005)
    CON 42% (33)
    LAB 28% (43)
    LD 15% (17)

    So overall these shares equate to a 12% LAB>CON swing since the 2005 general election which is 4.5% higher than the overall national swing.

    Jangled Tory nerves may be soothed somewhat by the AR 14 point lead in the marginals :-)

  6. AL J
    Irrespective of whether we agree with AR’s approach (& Mike Smithson explained earlier in the week why it produces lower figures for Labour) its results for the marginals make fascinating reading. It’s also very impressive that we are seeing relatively up to date data for the marginals..

  7. Amber

    **Jangled Tory nerves may be soothed somewhat by the AR 14 point lead in the marginals **

    It’s all happening in the marginlas :-)

  8. Albeitt within the bounds of sampling error, the Other vote is on the rise in this poll. These reverses a small decrease in the Others percentage in many recent polls as compared to those of a few months ago.

    Given the similarity of the major parties’ economic policies, and the ineffectiveness of these policies, I am surprised that the Other percentage is not higher. But then perhaps I would say that as whilst I am a floating voter I am likely to vote for an Other candidate myself (even if there is no Plaid candidate available in English constituencies).

    My attitude to the major parties can be roughly summed up as “No job, no vote for you”. I suspect I am not the only one.

  9. Mike

    Yes interesting.

    I can’t make up my mind about AR.

    Here we go again – but there is movement, can’t be denied.

    If we put the marginal scores in Anthony’s swnigometer -will it give us an accurate seat projection?

  10. Hi AL J

    How many CON/LD marginals did AR look at? I’m trying to guess the benefits of LAB tactical voting in these constituencies.

  11. @AMBER STAR
    You will see from my comments to my brother in evil Trevorsden, that I willingly except good news but, and its a big but, some of the comments on the site regarding the Tory slide are justified and need addressing. I have always had a positive view about the marginals because I canvass in a couple and hear about others. But if the ONS continues to go south so will the lead in the marginals. Nows the time to remember those battles won on the playing fields of Eton.

  12. Amber

    **This is based on polling in Labour’s 150 most vulnerable seats with 1254 resondents. Sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri .**

    So it’s all before row!!!

  13. I am right in thinking that the LibDem/Con marginal figures aren’t very good for the Tories? Not quite sure how to approach the marginal figures, statistically. I suppose it depends on whether they include all “marginals” (ie Tory as well as LibDem seats) or just LibDem seats targetted by the Tories.

  14. Hope the “new faces” comment wasn’t directed at me!! most of the afternoon I was the only one mentioning polls!!

    Anyway – can anyone tell me if other polls will look at the marginals?

  15. @ANTHONY WELLS
    If it is my stupidity, I know you wont hesitate to tell me, but the AR figures seem more and more to fall in with everyone else. With of course the exception of the Labour vote share. Mike Smithsons comments yesterday regarding weighting seem to deal with that aspect as well. So in brief are AR looking perfectly sensible.

  16. While Scotland doesn’t exactly have a large number of Lab/Con marginals! the AR data does seem to have been inappropriately calculated – no need to put the Scots seats in at all.

    For the LD seats, this is based on “polling in all the Lib Dem seats from 2005 where the aggregate shares then were C29:L19:LD46
    CON 33% (29)
    LAB 16% (19)
    LD 39% (46)

    Including the 11 Scottish seats in that will produce a level of distortion.

  17. Neil A

    Re the Lib Dem seat poll

    **This is based on polling in all the Lib Dem seats from 2005 **

  18. Sue Marsh

    Welcome

    I pop in & out so much I didn’t realise you were new.

    Happy polling ;-)

  19. Wolf MacNeil

    “Looking at the deep roots, long slow build-up and wide nature of that debate in Scotland, demonstrates no parallels in England – no cause for a claim of right, no chance of a popular convention.”

    Long and slow it certainly was. I argued about it with Donald Dewar when he was about 17 years old and it took him another forty years. In another 40 years I would be 110 and though My GP and the local hospital are first class, I doubt if they can keep me going as long as that.

    In over a hundred arguments with Donald I tried to persuade him that no honest, thinking person could keep his sanity in the environment of the Westminster parliament. He tried to persuade me that:

    1 It’s not as bad as you say
    2 There are historical reasons why it is so
    3 There are a number of possible solutions, and
    4 A Home Rule parliament would be an opportunity TO TRY OUT ONE OR MORE OF THEM.

    That was the format of his answer to every complaint, and I now think that the last point may be the real purpose of the Scottish Parliament rather than merely the better governance of Scotland. A Trojan horse in fact.

    If it happens at all it will be two generations after independence and I won’t be around to see it.

  20. I don’t normally give AR Polls the time of day… But for the sake of argument, let’s say they are internally consistent.

    Then the AR poll shows that at the current time, marginals have a boost of 4%. This is fantastic for the Conservatives if the UNS is closer to AR’s 7% swing. This is not so great if it’s a 3% UNS.

  21. Sue – If he meant you , you would have been subjected to the moderation queue (whiich the junkies face every day and will mostly deny they’ve been there!)

    Re your question, I predict that the marginals will be polled more and more as the GE approaches, but between GE’s, you normally get national polls every week or two with little attention to marginals.

  22. ps I can’t believe that last got straight through and I’m not on the naughty step- Thanks Ant!

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