I’m away from a computer tonight, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the daily YouGov figures when they appear. You probably don’t want to believe any rumours on Twitter about them ;)

To keep you busy until then, here are the tables for the other question in the YouGov/Sun poll last night. As well as the question asking how people saw Gordon Brown, which found 28% thinking him passionate, 27% tough… but 24% a bully and 40% bad tempered, there was also a question that asked directly about the “Bully Brown” allegations. 43% thought the claims were exaggerated or untrue, 22% thought they were true but did not mind a PM who sometimes went over the top, 21% thought they were true and that Brown’s behaviour was outrageous.

114 Responses to “Tonight’s poll (and yesterday’s Bully Brown polling)”

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  1. Sorry, I missed the “confession” – i thought the “forces of hell” remark referred at worst to McBride, and probably included the media and Tories (and possibly even Colin) But not directly to Brown.

    What comes across is that the CoftheE is not some-one who might have been on the phone to Mrs Pratt as a result of exchanges with GB.

  2. Have to feel a bit sorry for Philip JW, who is desperately trying to disbelieve the polls. If these figures are correctly reported, it’s hardly a sensation that both Labour & the Conservatives are down a point – certainly doesn’t merit the multiple question & exclamation marks. The last clutch of polls have been remarkably consistent in the gap between the 2 parties and I don’t see why anyone can really see anything suspicious. One has to suspect when 6 polls in a row say pretty much the same thing that they are likely to be pretty accurate. Labour are, despite a fairly rocky couple of days, very much in the picture now and it will be hard for the Conservatives to win an outright majority unless there is a swing back to them. For Labour to have a chance of being the largest party however will take a further swing of at least one per cent; if that were to occur I reckon that there is likely to be less differential in the marginals than anecdotal, and partial polling, evidence suggests.

  3. “recovery is fragile” …. ie there is no recovery. Minor fractions of a percent is hardly recovery.

    So why is the recovery ‘fragile’. Could it be govt borrowing is squeezing out other lending? Govt spending is not producing growth.

    We have had a decade of ever rising govt spending – it has not produced the growth that would generate the taxes to pay for the spending – hence ever rising deficits.

    Meaningful growth will not be generated by ‘stimulus’. ‘waiting for growth’ will mean waiting for ever. The stimulus, eg the black hole in spending, will only insulate people from reality for a short while. The structural deficit will only get bigger and the pain more intense when it is cut.

    So, John TT, The black hole will not be filled by ‘growth’ – there is a £90 billion structural deficit to remove and that means cuts. Darling knows it – it was in his PBR.

  4. @Barnaby

    I agree
    With a MOE of +/- 3%

    If it were a single poll % might be 35 35 for Tory and Labour?
    With six in a row saying the same thing more or less its prob. 38 32 17
    Labour do need another 1% swing to be largest party on UNS

  5. Tony M that’s not really fair is it?

  6. I’m beginning to think there is more to what happened last night, wrt the non/false reporting of last night’s figure. Apparently, as of tonight, all YouGov/Sun daily poll results will be released at 10pm. Do you think someone may have been trying to twist YouGov’s arm?

  7. Others may be doing even better than these figures imply because some voters may be intending to vote for the BNP but are embarrassed to admit it, even to themselves.

  8. TREVORSDEN @11.41

    Excellent post

    Jeff Randall would be proud of you!

  9. Trevorsden – Again I’m bemused by your reference to me. I have no interest i debating economics, that’s not what this site is for, so your ref to me re the deficit is strange. Jeff would probably be honoured by Colin’s comparison with you, but not because of your message to me, I fear.

  10. Just to re-iterate, Trevorsden, you may be right about the economy, but the polls suggest the electorate have grave misgivings about steep early cuts.

    You can have all the arguments you like, but the polls are the polls, and as I’,m sure Colin would agree, that’s more meaningful here than the opinions of 40 nobel prize winners on one side and sixty on the other.

  11. John TT – of course the electorate have grave misgivings about deep early cuts. But no one is suggesting that. The cuts will come next year, it will even by the standards of the PBR be tough this year.

    But as the tories say there can be some cuts this year and we still do not have a specific plan spelling out where the cuts will fall. Labour are desperate not to do that, since as long as they do not spell out the devastation to come they can pretend it will not happen, except under the tories.

    if I were the tories I would just invent a likely scenario….

    So meantime we se people saying ‘growth’ will eat away at the deficit, ignoring,
    a) that it wont and
    b) that govt borrowing is squeezing the life out of the economy.

    We are in the middle of a good old fashioned pre election ‘boom’ right now.
    eg massive unfunded govt spending, plus lots of promises of more to come. The polls are only human.

  12. The polls are only human.

    We agree on that !

    You and 40 expert economists say the the Labour cure is slowly killing the patient , I and an equivalent number of experts say the Tory cure would kill it stone dead.

    Meantime, life goes on

  13. Percy Holmes

    “Is [the] Brown tough score one of the reasons labour score is pulling up in this crisis. Ploughing ahead doing his tough job with no wobble?”

    Sadly, you may have something there. Those who favour “strong” government and a strong leader may be more numerous than you think.. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Altemeyer ]

    Many of them are the undereducated C2’s who voted for Thatcher and Blair but wouldn’t vote for the “wimp” John Major. that’s the sort of people you can avoid by travelling first class as Mr Winterton understands.

    GB should really have ended Blair’s wars so that he could started one of his own.

    Nuke Tonga now!

  14. Peter Cairns

    I thought the SNP leadership was mostly Scotish too, though I am aware that several MSP’s and party officials are Engish.

    If you are being squeezed it is because there is something disconcerting in voting someone into a parliament that they do not want to be a part of.

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