Finally confirmed – YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun is confirmed as showing topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 17%(nc). So no shift at all from the poll conducted on Friday – the figures reported last night elsewhere across the internet seem to have been based solely upon Twitter rumours – it does not, to say the least, seem to be a particularly sound source for polling info.

The poll was conducted between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, so entirely after Andrew Rawnsley allegations about “Bully Brown” had hit the media. So has, it clearly hasn’t damaged Labour though it is perhaps too early to conclude that it won’t – the story was still all over the media last night. One thing that daily polling may help us to understand over time is exactly the timescale over which events events impact voting intention.

164 Responses to “Labour unscathed in new YouGov poll”

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    “The Queen sends for Ken Clark as the only man acceptable to both sides in a National Government”

    Ah- the thorny issue of a ‘National Government’.

    Interestingly – along with advocating the Cameroonians changing to be slash and burn Thatcherites ‘to be guaranteed a GE win’- this was something (I am assuming if aforesaid Thatcherite realignment does not materialise) Mr Jeff Randall (Tea Party UK branch chair) proposed in a Torygraph article last week. He of Sky News affiliations- the ones not reporting their own poll today.

  2. How about this?

    There is a hung parliament & the Queen calls on

    Christine Pratt to mediate ;-)

  3. This will get some posters going. From the Guardian;-

    **The International Monetary Fund today gave strong backing to the government’s “wait-and-see” approach to cutting Britain’s record peacetime budget deficit when it warned the weakness of growth required tax increases and spending cuts to be delayed until next ?year.**

    How will it play in the polls?

  4. Who is Amber Star?????

  5. David Cameron becomes Deputy PM in a National Government under Brown. But then they have a nasty falling out, Brown pushes Cameron to the floor and the Tories flounce out of government in floods of tears?

  6. ALJ

    **The International Monetary Fund today gave strong backing to the government’s “wait-and-see” approach to cutting Britain’s record peacetime budget deficit when it warned the weakness of growth required tax increases and spending cuts to be delayed until next ?year.**

    How will it play in the polls?”

    Only badly for the Tories

  7. Amber Star is not Valerie – surely ;-)

    Only badly for the Tories ;-) Feels like a dream after a year of nightmares lol

  8. Its fun to play the game but assuming that the libs were to form a distinctly minority part of a liblab govt then it would be massively unlikely that Cable would be chancellor (or anything). The chancellor would be Balls.

    Surely the only difference with a marginal is that the voters know they have some influence and can make a difference.

  9. OK, I’m ready for the howls of derision, the insults, the laughs, the spluttering noises.
    I’ve always thought Labour will win this election.
    (Ouch, stop throwing things)
    I thought this three years ago and as the polls have narrowed and narrowed, this is the first time I’ve dared say it.
    1) Because the chattering classes aren’t the one’s who’ve benefited most from Labour policies. Labour voters have seen some dearly held aims achieved under this government and despite the disappointments, now that they’re being forced to actually DECIDE, they’re not as disillusioned as they thought.
    2) The Tories haven’t really changed – but the political landscape has. Possibly forever. The country is broadly left of centre. The very fact the Tories are seen to need to be different to how they always were is the writing on their wall. Of course they will win elections again, but only in the way Labour did last century.
    3) Gordon Brown has faults for sure, but he is a very intelligent man, he’s been in power for over a decade and the recession is lifting. Cameron simply isn’t offering the public an alternative they feel they can believe in. Brown is seen as heavyweight, Cameron as Frothy.

    Anyway, I expect very few supporters in my opinion, but I wanted it out there as a matter of record millud!!!

  10. Sue,

    Labour can’t win the election unless the Tory vote falls to around 35% or less (assuming the Libdems stay in the doldrums). That’s not inconceivable but it would mean the average Tory vote falling by as much in the next couple of months as it did in the last year or so.

    My theory is that the further a party’s vote falls, the harder it is to push it lower, as you are getting closer and closer to that “core” support. Its a bit like losing weight; the first stone is a lot easier to lose than the second one.

  11. Wouldn’t want to rely on one offs, but between the17th and 21st Feb, Tory vote fell from 40 to 37

  12. You’re right not to want to. And you shouldn’t.

  13. I would say the polls are pretty much at the bare hard core vote now for the Tories and the “dithering” is between Labour and Lib Dem, the undecided migrate from one to the other, a mean value for Labour’s core vote being in the high 20s. (obviously considerably lower in England, more in Wales and about 75% in Scotland)

    Still predict roughly 39-42/27-30/18-20. Personally I don’t believe Cameron will open up the big guns until the election is actually called.

  14. Sue Marsh

    You make some good points but miss the most important one on your side of the argument.

    In 2005 it seemed to many that the challenge for the Conservatives was too great to gain a majority in one election and it would have been considered then, that to get to where they are now, would realistically be as much as could be hoped for.

    That they were even higher in the polls a few months ago is not to the credit of the Conservatves but because Labour have lost not just support but the respect of the electorate.

    Dissembling over Iraq, expenses and petty internal squabbles have all played a part in discrediting Labour.

    Since Formula One, voters have held the Labour government in contempt because of their gullability and infatuation with the rich and for taking the rich at their own assessment of their self worth, but the banking debacle has turned contempt into ridicule, which is much more dangerous.

    Despite that, in Scotland, a fifth of voters – about as many as will vote Conservative – prefer more of a government that they acknowledge is “tired and failing” to a Conservative one.

    Elections are always lost, not won. I do not agree with you – yet – that we are on course for another Labour government, but if we are, and the Conservatives have lost, they should be ashamed, for the voters have rejected their philosophy in preference for continued failure.

    “Vote Labour, we’re crap, but the other lot are worse”

    Do you think that would appeal as an election slogan?

    It would fit with the public mood and rate higher for honesty and credibility than an other electioneering slogan you’ve ever seen.

    Others and Won’t Vote are doing well but in these circumstances is it realy the LibDems who are failing most by missing a huge opportunity?

    In Scotland many who reject independence will vote for the SNP. Although the SNP will gain very few seats they could have a share of the poll about the same as Labour and more than Conservatives. Nearly half the SNP vote will come from people who reject its flagship policy and the very reason for its existence

    Does that tell us that there is something wrong with what passes for democracy in this country?

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