Comments on: ICM show the Tory lead dropping to 7 points

By: Big John

Big John — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 16:48:43 +0000

Perhaps Con home were quoting the new AR poll

By: Danny Boy

Danny Boy — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 15:53:42 +0000

@ EPOCHERY

what causes confusion when people are trying to decide what size portion of the vote will facilitate what number of seats for each party is solely down to how much you trust swing calculators. I personally do not for one minute believe the Conservatives need an 11 point lead over Labour to get a small majority. if you do, fine. I dont. Therefore how close do Labour need to get to the Tories to remain the largest party? I think a lot closer than you think, and i would bet on 3%.
The Tories need to win roughly the first 75 Labour held target seats to become the largest party. These seats are as good as lost for Labour. The last time i looked the seat in which i live was no. 83 on the target list and the Conservatives are in front here by around 3%.
The news of the world poll in the marginal seats sunday before last showed the Conservatives on course for 38 seat majority.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 09:40:11 +0000

I have not been following the polls too closely recently.

However 2 significant events have happened this week I think.

1) Labour have finally climbed above 32%, a ceiling that was looking impossible for them to get above
2) Conservatives have now dropped under their safe floor figure of 38%

this is a real tightening of the polls and if this trend continues could make for a very interesting campaign. I still don’t see where all this talk of a hung parliament is coming from, the Tories are still huge favourites I think, but they must be getting jittery!

By: saladin

saladin — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 07:08:56 +0000

to say it with Shakespeare:
Much Ado About Nothing

it will be interestings how the polls will change (or not) over the next few days

By: saladin

saladin — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 07:06:34 +0000

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/

CONFIRMED – Tory YouGov lead still 6pc
February 23rd, 2010

CON 39% (39)
LAB 33% (33)
LD 17%(17)
Peter Kellner validates the figures – ConHome was wrong

I’ve just managed to get in contact with Peter Kellner and he has confirmed the above figures to me – so ConHome got it wrong. The overnight YouGov daily poll showed no change in any of the numbers from Saturday night.

The fact that there is no change from Sunday must come as major set-back for the Tories – and the Lib Dems. For this suggests that the bullygate business is having no effect.

It might take time to seep in but Labour must be breathing a massive sigh of relief.
Mike Smithson