There is also a new ComRes poll out today, commissioned by pressure group Theos. The topline voting intention figures, with changes from their previous poll a week ago are CON 38%(-2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 20%(-1).

These two polls were either side of Gordon Brown’s interview with Piers Morgan, so the natural inference is that it did indeed help Labour. However, ComRes’s previous poll was a bit of an unusual creature – it had shown the Conservatives increasing their lead in the face of a wider trend of a narrowing lead, so this is probably just a reversion of that. With the exception of Angus Reid, all the polls are now floating around a Tory lead of about 8 points – with some lower (like YouGov yesterday), and some higher (like YouGov on Wednesday or Populus last week). That’s a significant narrowing from the ten point lead that seemed to be the norm a couple of months back, or last summer’s mid-teen leads.

As might be expected from a Theos poll, the other questions dealt with the role of religion in public life. 27% said they had no religion, 33% that their religion was cultural and didn’t really affect their lives. 22% said their religion was important and had some impact on their lives, 16% that it was very important and had significant affect upon their lives.

ComRes then asked which party people thought had been the most friendly towards particular religions over recent years. 21% thought the Conservatives had been closest to Christians, 20% Labour, 9% the Lib Dems. 36% thought Labour had been friendliest to Muslims compared to 10% for Conservatives and 7% for the Lib Dems.

If you look at the answers amongst the groups themselves, amongst Christians whose faith is of great importance to them (a very small sample of 144, but the ones who this is presumably most likely to make a difference to), the Conservatives lead 28% to 18% for Labour. Amongst the 100 Muslims in the sample 49% thought Labour had been most friendly to the Muslim faith, followed by 9% for the Lib Dems and 6% for the Conservatives.

Finally ComRes asked if people agreed with a series of statements – 32% agreed that religious freedoms had been restricted in Britian in recent years (opinions on this had a sharp religious skew, only 26% of people with no religion agreed, 52% of those whose religion was of great importance to them did). 31% of people thought that the law should prevent people from expressing religious views in the workplace (surprisingly opinions on did’t have much of a religious view – 28% of people whose religion was of great importance to them still agreed). 64% of people agreed that religious leaders like the Pope had a responsibility to speak out on issues they were concerned about and, finally, 42% agreed that “in a democracy, extreme political parties should be banned”.

158 Responses to “ComRes/Theos poll has 8 point lead”

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  1. @marco & Rob Sheffield – I would suggest that, unless you have firm evidence of political bias among individual pollsters, which is frankly pretty hard to imagine, I do think we should try to avoid such accusations, implied or otherwise.
    For example, I read a recent poster here attacking Nick Robinson from the BBC for being pro labour. Last night I read comments elsewhere about Nick Robinson from the BBC being a Tory stooge and doing Cameron’s job for him. I saw no merit in either train of thought. On balance, when people make accusations of bias like that, it usually says more about them than the target of their complaints.

  2. Alec – and it would be good if Anthony’s allegiance went un-commented – of those who don’t know, many like the fact that they can’t tell (and see his tone as an example to follow)

  3. Arrgh! A Captcha error just killed a very long, carefully drafted and meticulous post of mine!

    To paraphrase: I have looked around for statistics and it does look as if Jay is right and the proportion of ex-right-to-buy properties is a couple of percentage points higher than the average. There were no proper figures and I had to extrapolate (from Bolton, whose council has a report with detailed stats) but it looks like around 50,000 homes may be empty that would probably still be occupied if they were socially-owned. On that basis right-to-buy is a significant factor in UK homelessness. The question still remains as to whether the policy itself, or its implementation, is actually at fault.

  4. Anthony- wrap across the knuckles accepted.

    Interesting to put a name to the face: just got back from campus and put on CNBC and there you were commenting on the latest (as of yesterday) YouGov poll !!

  5. The whole point about all this slagging off of certain polsters is that it may matter to you if Labour are being trounced in the polls or the Tories lead is bleeding all over Westminister, but what is the agenda of politicians?
    I can tell you all, complacency was the biggest sin in the book when the Tory lead looked BIG. AR saying Tory lead 16 points and we all relax is not what Dave wants. YouGov say Tory lead is 6 points, and everyone is out on the doorsteps, thats what Dave likes to see.

    David Cameron will take the big lead of course, any politician would, but he has always been very uncomfortable with any “its in the bag” mentality. Therefore, I do not buy into these theories put forward by some posters.

  6. @ John Dick

    I’m not sure what it has to do with the polls, but I can recall sufficient photographs of Prince Charles wearing a kilt long before the SNP were prominent to suggest that he has a romantic attachment to things Scottish like most of the royal family rather than an ulterior motive.

  7. pETE b

    ‘These last have spent one hour, and you have made them equal to us, who have borne the burden of the day and the scorching heat!’
    “because I am good?’ So the last will be first, and the first last. For many are called, but few are chosen.”
    That sounds like equality to me.

  8. Anthony

    I see him or pictures of him in Scotland more, though he was in Benbecula for longer periods staying with
    the MacAskills.

    As for the title, since a few years ago I didn’t even know myself that he was Duke of Rothesay and now that Scottish sources usually get it right, poshumous credit to Mrs Michie may be due.


    There could be all sorts of reasons including the newer romantic attraction being more willing to come.

    I wouldn’t describe it as ulterior but maybe smart contingency planning. If the Royals aren’t better informed than I am or you are it isn’t for want of opportunity.


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