Comments on: Brighton and Hove poll

By: Ben Fairweather

Ben Fairweather — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 10:10:13 +0000

Kindle have provided data tables at http://kindler.posterous.com/full-data-tables-from-bandh-political-party-v following my prompting, and have started responding to comments/criticism at http://kindleresearch.com/blog/?p=276#comment-2955

I would be interested to know others views of the merits of Kindle’s defence so far.

By: Warren

Warren — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:17:59 +0000

Anthony – yes, happy to accept I was wrong to use the term “push poll” but was looking for the right way to emphasise that a poll showing the Greens doing well that was commissioned by them, prompted for them and followed hard on the heels of a blanket mailshot can’t be seen to truly reflect opinion?

Green Greenie (no doubt who you support eh?) – pointing to votes in European elections (a risk free referendum on the govt/issues of the day) has never been a reliable guide to how a much larger turnout will vote in a General Election when they are picking a government. Thre Greens are not going to form the next govt, even Caroline Lucas would accept that.

Seal Pup – you are right to mention the Co-operative Party which is very strong in Brighton, but David Lepper is retiring and Nancy Platts is the Labour Pavilion candidate. Simon Burgess in Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven is a Labour & Co-operative candidate though.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 23:48:33 +0000

Something seems to have gone rather wrong here.

I don’t wish to knock it too much because almost any constituency based poll is to be encouraged, and is a rare opportunity to give us a slight indication, but this seems to heavily under-estimate the Greens.

It perhaps indicates the Con-Lab race is much tighter, low swing in this area, even in Hove, which I can believe up to a point, but would put the Tories favourite in Hove, even with some narrowing towards Labour.

But polls of course are not there to predict.

By: Green Greenie

Green Greenie — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:45:03 +0000

Its really between Tories & Greens in Pavillion. Look at the last couple of times people have voted.

By: Seal Pup

Seal Pup — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:17:52 +0000

Whilst the Greens are no doubt popular in the Brighton area, it’s important to factor in the local MPs reputations… It’s not just the Co-operative Party connexions that make people like David Lepper are not so easy to oust.
I think the Greens will probably give Labour a real run for their money in the area, but maybe the best they can realistically do is to come second place in all three Brighton constituencies.