For the past two or three weeks all the polls have been moving in the same direction, with Labour closing the gap on the Conservatives. Tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday however shows movement in the other direction. The topline figures, with changes from their poll at the start of the month, are CON 40%(+2), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2).

Whenever a poll shows movement against the general trend I urge some degree of caution – of course it could mark the end of the recent narrowing in the polls, or it could just be sample error. Until other polls support or conflict with this movement we won’t know, nevertheless, it’ll boost Conservative spirits.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so while it was after the Brown interview was conducted and first reported, it was before clips of it started turning up in the media so I doubt it’s really had chance to have any affect. Anyone waiting to see if there is a Brown interview effect probably needs to wait for polls taken after the interview is shown tomorrow.

303 Responses to “ComRes show Tory lead back to 11”

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  1. Valerie,

    Had Ken Clarke been Chancellor or even PM, he may well have tried to take us into the Euro. But he would not have succeeded as he would have run into an immediate obstacle – his party. He would not have got the proposal through cabinet – never mind the parliamentary party or the country.

    I very much doubt that any Tory leader in the past 10 years would have let Ken anywhere near the treasury, and he most certainly would not have become PM – after all, we preferred IDS to Ken by a large margin for that very reason – or did you think IDS won the membership ballot in 2001 on the back of his charisma ?

    As to “fixing the roof while the sun shone”, I agree that this phrase should not be used – but for a different reason. It reshapes the issue in a way that is less critical of Brown’s culpability for our dire fiscal psoition – highlighted once more today. It is unfair to say that Mr Brown was never up there on his ladder while he was Chancellor. The problem was he was using his clunking great fist to poke holes in the fabric and shower tiles on his critics below.

    If you would prefer other imagery, I will attempt to be as picturesque as you wish.

  2. Paul HJ

    Well if we are doing picuresque….
    I think Cameron will win with a small majority and then, to quote Johann Hari in today;’s indy

    “As leader, Cameron can’t defy his party’s core instincts for long, especially with a small majority. Every barking right backbencher will have to be wooed and soothed and fed red meat to get legislation through. Cameron will be accountable to dee*ly retrograde forces”
    I’m looking forward to seeing how Dave copes with the onslaught.

  3. Valerie,

    I could draft you a single page Bill that Cameron would have no difficulty getting his back-benchers to support. Moreover, it would avoid teh need to stuff the statute book with another 3000 pages a year.

    It is another false dichotomy to assume that parliament needs to spend its time cramming ever more legsilation on the statute book, and thus a PM needs to kow-tow to factions in his party to ensure this treadmill keeps running.

    The proper measure of good government is how much happiness it can generate for its people, not what new unenforceable rules it has imposed on them to screw up their lives.

    Woof ! Woof !

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