Political Betting has a new Angus Reid poll. The topline figures, with changes from their previous poll a fortnight ago, are CON 38%(-2), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1).

After three polls showing virtually no movement at all I was tempted to headline this poll “Angus Reid poll finally moves”, but anyway – Angus Reid’s last poll was on the only since the end of the recession not to show the Conservative lead dropping. These latest figures do echo the trend we’ve seen in all the other pollsters.

As usual, Angus Reid are showing a significantly lower level of Labour support than other companies. This is almost certainly due to methodological differences – at least partially it is because Angus Reid weight their sample’s recalled 2005 vote to the actual result of the 2005 election, when other companies who use past vote weighting assume some level of past recall and weight Labour to a higher figure.

167 Responses to “Angus Reid poll shows Tory lead falling”

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  1. John Rentoul’s blog says that there will be a ComRes poll coming out tonight (for the Independent on Sunday).

    A poster on PoliticalBetting has said that the Sunday Times YouGov poll may be coming out tonight as well, although I don’t know how accurate that report is.

  2. @Neil A

    Low Turnout is bad, because it creates a government tilted in representation of those who would vote even if the polling both was on fire. And those voters are usually on the extreems.

    Low turnout is why we have two BNP European Ministers.

  3. Mister_Ennui – this one does, but Margaret on a Guillotine is a bit of a rubbish track anyway. I did note when David Cameron cited the Queen is Dead as his favorite album he said “except for the first track”. Since it’s actually a very good track, my bet is that was just to avoid newspaper headlines saying Cameron’s favourite song was about Charles cross-dressing, Michael Fagan and the death of the monarch ;)

    (Incidentally, I like to think of the lyrics of Glamorous Glue as a paean to the problem of shy Tories in opinion polls.

    “We won’t vote Conservative,
    Because we never have,
    Everyone lies”

    I suspect, however, that this was not actually what Morrissey was thinking of)

  4. @Jay Blanc

    I don’t think it’s reasonable to slight those who don’t vote. The relatively small differences between the two main parties (&, disappointingly, the inability of the LibDems to establish clear water between themselves & the other 2) means many people will not think it’s worth voting if the next Government will be practically indistinguishable from the present one (apart from soundbites & a smiling PM instead of a glowering one). It’s a valid choice.

  5. @Derek Pierson

    Well, to me, failing to vote is choosing to let extremist voters of the BNP a greater voice than yours.

    If you all voted for the Green party instead, then you’d have an impact. Staying at home will simply result in political parties in power being less and less representative, so if disappointment with the establishment is the reason for not voting, then no, it’s *not* a rational choice.

  6. @Paul B – I don’t think there can be an April election as the date of the budget has now been set for late March, although I don’t think that is officially confirmed yet. There has to be a certain period after a budget before an election can be held, but on this timetable it would mean April is out. Besides, I suspect Labour will want the Q1 GDP figures before the election. If they are worse and show shrinkage/stagnation, it is slightly awkward but it backs their line that government intervention is needed and Tory risk to the recovery – after all, it was the poor Q4 growth that stumped cameron and has caused them some real problems which they haven’t yet recovered from. If, by contrast, the figures show an improving picture, which I suspect is more likely, then Labour will claim their actions have helpe etc etc. At this point cameron won’t be able to adjust his stance again – that would leave him wide open to further accusations of wobbling so close to an election.

  7. @alex thanks if that correct then i guess its may or june

  8. @tim

    “BNP/UKIP and Grn at 11% still mark this down as an unfeasible voting intention poll,”

    You might be in for a shock Tim!

  9. Speaking as a current supporter of “none of the above”:
    I don’t think the reason why there are BNP MEPs is wholly because of low turnout. It’s because of the PR system used in European elections which favours minor parties much more than FPTP. The other reason is people are voting for them because the main parties are not addressing issues of nationality in the same way they did a generation or two ago.

  10. @Keith

    The point is, that in a higher turn-out election, the BNP would have had far fewer votes. The BNP pick up a higher share of the vote in lower turn-out elections because their voters *always vote*.

  11. Is their any known reason why elections in uk tend to be close when recessions have occured than when there has been growth? Like the torys had a small majority in 1979 and 1992 after recession but lost to a landslide in 1997 after several years of growth

  12. Far fewer votes per population I mean.

  13. @jay blanc finally i agree with you with something the BNP in the last european elections actually had less votes than the previous elections but a larger share

  14. Yes, minor party supporters-such as the BNP- basically always vote, so increasing their % vote share on a poor turn out day. This is one reason govts like council elections to be held on the same day as it is inclined to maximise turnout. And that’s why nice weather helps (I’m not going to vote-it’s raining…)

    Why do minor party people always vote?; psychologically they have to justify not being part of the mainstream and voting for their parties justifies their faith in being ‘unusual’. It’s probably correct to say party members of all types vote–but as a percentage mainstream party members are swamped by those who vote for their parties anyway. Fringe groups get very few extra votes from the normal electorate.

    So the BNP got elected when very few voted; that’s proven statistically.

  15. I am not so sure about the “BNP always vote” assertions. That may be true of what might be considered the BNP’s “hardcore base”. The proper skinhead, blackshirt racist thug vote. But I have noticed a real shift towards the BNP from less traditionally racist voters recently. I hear colleagues talking in guarded terms like “I’m not a racist but noone’s sorting out immigration. Surely it’s not racist to stop immigration?” and they are clearly considering voting BNP. I am pretty sure some of them would have been non-voters previously. All anecdotal of course, but I really think we have to be careful about making glib judgements on who votes BNP and why.

  16. ‘I’ve been dreaming of a time when the english are sick to death of labour and tories……’


  17. re Anthony’s position on the political spectrum. He occasionally is referred to it by a poster, or is drawn into referring to it himself. i think it’s best left or forgottenby regulars, because it would be a pity if his articles were reflected upon by his readers as though they knew what his allegiances are.

    The really clever bit is writing stuff so that readers have no idea who he votes for. It’s not “dishonest” or the antithesis of “wearing one’s heart on one’s sleeve”, but rather a great example of teh comments policy at work.

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