For what it’s worth, I think Labour have been a little unlucky with the way the news has played. Overall the “guilt” is fairly evenly spread between Tory and Labour politicians, but with Barbara Follett topping the repayment stakes, and three Labour MPs being prosecuted against one Tory peer (or ex-Tory peer, peers are a little easier for parties to dump it seems), the reporting has focused very much on Labour.

And of course the announcement has driven Gordon’s Ulster Triumph to the bottom of the TV news.

I’m not so sure Brown at Chilcot will be a factor, but the economy could yet have some surprises if the signals from equity & gilts markets are anything to go by.

If the external narrative on the economy starts to provide any support for Cons, that would certainly knock what has been Brown’s biggest positive recently.

I agree with your penultimate sentence too. He has a good track record when things look tough.

And there is the campaign of course-this phoney war is not the real stuff.

Im really interested to see if the next AR poll shows any movement.

Somehow or other my computer seemed to be stuck on 80 comments for this thread not the 155 that it turned out to be.