ComRes show Tory lead down to 7 points
There is a ComRes poll out tonight. The full details are embargoed until ten o’clock, but Andrew Grice has already posted that the Conservative lead is down to seven points, from points in ComRes’s previous poll a week and a half ago.
I’ll update at ten, but certainly this poll appears to be echoing the trend we’ve seen in all the other polls since the country officially exited recession on Tuesday. So far Ipsos MORI, YouGov, BPIX and ComRes have all shown the Tory lead shrinking and heading into hung Parliament territory.
I think that Populus’s monthly poll may also have been conducted over the weekend – if it was, we should get that tonight or tomorrow as well.
UPDATE: The full figures are CON 38%(nc), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 19%(nc), so the narrowing of the lead is down to Labour increasing their support – like YouGov, BPIX and MORI, ComRes have Labour up above 30% and in the case of ComRes it is the first time for almost exactly a year.
37% of people agreed that Labour can take credit for getting Britain out of recession (a minority – 59% disagreed – but obviously 37% is more people than actually support Labour, so is probably not a bad finding). The other additional questions aren’t particularly enlightening. 40% said they trusted Brown more than Cameron to help the economy to recover (52% disagreed, but obviously we can’t automatically stick them in the Cameron column as they may be people who trust them both, or trust neither of them). The same applies to the 24% of people who believe the recession would have ended earlier if the Tories had been in power – the 69% of people who disagreed can’t be taken to be people who think the Tories would have done worse, some will think the two parties would have done equally well or badly.
Finally 82% said they agreed that Cameron should be clearer over what he would do about the economy. The Indy have put this as a subheading on their front page, but frankly it’s a fairly pointless question. A good sign of a decent question is whether anyone can really agree with the opposite – and how many normal people would say “I think David Cameron should be much vaguer and less clear about his plans for the economy”?
Filed under: Communicate, Voting Intention
4 or 5 polls is definitely a trend, we’re on the border of hung parliament territory, I hope these debates are good.
By the way, why are the details embargoed? Is it so news programs and papers can’t steal the details or something?
Quincel,
Media embargoes are, I think, to encourage other media outlets to pick them up, but to make sure the commissioning newspaper still gets first dibs on actually reporting it.
It means people like Mike Smithson and I get lots of time to write a piece about the new poll, rather than dash something out in 5 minutes when the figures appear – and hence ComRes get higher quality pieces written about their polls.
I would have to agree with Quincel that this is a trend. However, I want to see the details. ComRes have had Labour on 29% in their last two polls, and unless we see this rise I don’t think there is much for Brown to get excited about. Realistically for Labour, while being only 7% behind would be preferable to 9 or 13%, unless they can persuade significantly more than 30% of voters to choose them they shouldn’t get their hopes too high.
A trivial point, but but the map illustrating the constituency guide part of the site is out of date – looks like the 2001 election results to me
I wonder if this run of polls will bring the GE forward?
Clearly Labour will be satisfied regardless – but if they manage to creep up to 31 it could very well be a start of a new trend, 30 being the floor of their support rather then the ceiling of it,
Like I said in the other thread, looking forward to your analysis.
Surely [...no one...] can dismiss this run of polls?
They are now – at this moment in time – just about 8 points in front of Labour. And, so far this year, slipping closer all the time.
Cameron has to up his game.
It cannot be taken as read that there will be a Conservative victory.
Unlikely, Neil. If the polls are rising, Labour won’t want to jump the gun. There’s clearly been a preference for May 6 for some time, and a seven point deficit isn’t reason enough to change that. Instead we’ll hope it keeps rising and that Cameron flubs the debates.
Election spending began January 1, so there’s a limited amount of difference Ashcroft’s money can make now in key marginals, whereas Labour needs to squeeze every penny out of its donors now just to compete.
Then there’s the need for high turnout. That means we need to hit hard little canvassed wards full of natural Labour but functionally non-voting voters. My CLP has the best contact rate in East Anglia (granted, not the most active region for Labour) and we’ve only been upping our doorknocking since December. We’ll have doorknocked everywhere in the constituency where it makes sense by mid-April, but not by mid-February. And once the election begins, we’ll concentrate on those people who’ve already said they support us or might do. So if we go early, we lose votes.
Agree with Alec that the numbers matter. If it’s 37-30 then Cameron is in trouble but Labour isn’t benefiting. That either means that UKIP actually is going to start costing Dave 50 seats or (vastly more probably) that the Lib Dems are picking up that support. And whilst that might help them in the south-west, Labour doesn’t want a strong Clegg. It could have dealt with a strong Kennedy, but there’s no way they can work sustainably with Clegg.
If, on the other hand, it’s 39-32 that might suggest Labour support is rising. If that’s the case, we may have somehow become detoxified a little. That would be encouraging.
On the flip side, of course, it could just be an outlier. No way to tell, naturally.
@David in France,
I am certainly a Conservative supporter and I wouldn’t argue with most of what you’ve said, apart from perhaps the “slipping closer all the time”.
I have never taken it as read that there with be a Tory victory. I always thought that it was the most likely outcome, and I still on balance think it is. It is clearly looking less likely than it was a couple of months ago however.
It is worth noting (without wanting to seem like an apologist) that the major change has been in Labour’s levels of support rather than the Conservatives. It is not so much that the Tory vote is melting away, its that Labour are clawing back votes from Others whilst the LibDems are going nowhere.
It is very much still to be seen whether Labour will keep adding percentage points between now and the GE. I am not ruling it out, but trends can stall or reverse quite easily.
I would hesistate to suggest this is Labour clawing back support; maybe, as voters often punish the incumbent Government with low poll ratings to display disastisfaction and urge them to change direction, so this too may be voters urging Cameron to step up his game? Possibly even those on the right of his party turning to UKIP or ‘don’t know’ or swing voters telling him they’re not yet convinced.
I don’t think for a moment there will be an election before early May, other than in the event that Labour are actually ahead in several consecutive polls.
Just had ICM calling me up for an opinion poll. Surprisingly enough, I said I’d vote Labour.
To answer my own question from the other thread, the last time the Tory lead was in single figures in 5 consecutive polls was just over a year ago – end of December ‘08.
My view would tend to be the same as Edward and Barnaby’s – unless it gets to the point where Labour have a solid lead or they have reason to think it might reverse, a narrowing poll gap would likely encourage them to hold on in the hope that it continues to narrow, rather than encourage them to go early.
Anthony,
I’m guessing we’ll all be back here after 10pm! Please have something for us
The numbers are becoming more important than the gap & I’m itching to see who’s switching.
Or put another way, Ben…. there has been a 4% swing from Labour to Tory since December 2008..
(Sorry, just illustrating the follies of picking arbitrary poll results from the past for comparison…Not aimed at you really!)
As has been said the numbers are important.
Slippage from 38 would be bad for Cons.
The trend is becoming firmer though.
This is what Brown waited for through all those difficult months for Labour.He must begin to feel vindicated.It’s all going according to plan.
Cameron has thinking to do.
I still think this is a phoney war-recessions over-collective sigh of relief-who will be least likely to cut my state reliant job?-no thinking required.
No wonder GB is stringing out the GE date.
At present it’s effortless
Once he calls it , proper electioneering will be required-including Labour Policies-and those TV debates.
.
I hate to admit it, but on the subject of a hung Parliament, it’s beginning to look like Alex Salmond (consummate politician) was right and I (guy with a computer) was wrong.
I really didn’t see how the Tories could lose England to the extent that Scots and Welsh MPs might (as has rarely happened before) determine the government of England.
If the polls continue to narrow, and are reflected in the actual election result, that is going to be “interesting” in a way that would not have been true in the 20th century.
Without wanting to be partisan, I JUST DO NOT GET IT…How can these polls be narrowing? [To put it without the long rant, "When the economic recovery wasn't that strong, the Iraq inquiry in the news and when you don't think the government are doing very well" - AW]
Possibly, it’s because cameron and his team are not being sure footed enough. Cameron has made more than a few blunders over the last few weeks. The Tories need a straightforward and coherent narrative. Don’t backtrack and dissemble on spending cuts because we know they are coming. The civil servants are already planning them irrespective of who will get into power.
Like many Conservatives I split my vote. I will always vote UKIP at Euro elections to give the EU a bloody nose and infuriate the smug centre left commentators at the BBC. I could get into more of a habit of voting UKIP if the Conservatives don’t buck their ideas up and show some spine. Maybe just maybe some of the decline in Tory support over the last few weeks is meant as a gentle warning not to take thoseof us who are disposed towards voting for Cameron for granted.
All to play for now.
Gordon will come across much better in TV debates too.
David, you better wake up
Is it me or does there seem to be a ridiculous number of polls at the moment. My concern is that polsters will be looking to produce a poll that grabs headlines amongst the numerous number of polls
@ Neil A,
I know that, was just interested to see – I’m not sure which trend we should be looking at… 3 months? 6 months? 12?
The current trend we saw developing in December has been sustained, against one or two predictions I may add!
Hardpressed,
I share your frustration, but not your confusion. Essentially Labour are the less painful solution, and as the “economic crisis” and “debt mountain” are slightly stale news, large parts of the electorate are moving back towards “what do I get out of it” politics.
In fairness to Labour, whilst they (in my, partisan, view) did a lot to create the conditions that led to our problems, their handling of the credit crunch has been reasonably competent and they are probably benefitting from that.
Is anyone following what is happening to undecideds? could it be that Tory vote is holding at an absolute figure, but former Labour, who were don’t know, are returning to the fold? I certainly get more people saying Dont Know but not Tory, than this time last year, when canvassing
Ben,
We are actually more or less back to where we were just after the conferences. After which the polls went back in the Tories’ favour, then back again. Albeit that all of these movements were (and still are) within a few percentage points.
As for predictions, I don’t think they’re really worth the paper they’re (not) written on!
While you wait, try playing on the Swingometer with the only number we have, the 7% Tory lead.
Put in Con37, Lab 30, LibDem 23, Others 10, and the Tories are almost 40 seats short of a majority, but Labour and the Lib Dems could achieve one together.
Now try Con 37, LibDem 30, Lab 23, Others 10, and Labour drop back so far that the Tories get a small majority [which a deal with the UUP and DUP would boost to over 30], whereas the Lib Dems barely reach half Labour’s seat numbers despite being 7% ahead of them.
First past the post – bad, mad and dangerous to know, don’t you love it? Won’t you miss it when it’s gone?
Much as it’s nice to see my post being echoed, there’s nothing to say that at any moment David Cameron won’t up his game and the lead won’t move back to 12 points or higher in a few weeks time. This is good news for Labour, but this election is far from being a hung parliament yet, about 3 months or so and a very unpredictable set of ones too.
@Colin – a good analysis.
Incidentally, Andrew Grice may have given away enough information to work out the numbers (if you know which election predictor he uses).
40:33:17:10 on the UK Polling Report swingometer would put the Tories 21 short of a majority, but that doesn’t mean these are the actuals – Grice has provided insufficent information to deduce them.
We’ll know soon enough, anyway!
Statto
38/31/19 (if that’s what it is) doesn’t necessarily predict any particular outcome of course – unless you believe in UNS and Santa Claus.
@ Quincel
‘there’s nothing to say that at any moment David Cameron won’t up his game and the lead won’t move back to 12 points or higher’
Of course not, unless he’s playing with the wrong shape of ball, less able team mates, can’t work out what’s going wrong (if anything) etc….
38/31/19 it is.
The recent polls are surprising. If I were the Tories I would not get to worried. The lead is still at least 7-10 points. Yes the Tories have had a bad January and certainly need to pick their game up. But this is the Phoney, Phoney War.
Why is everbody surprised about the recent bump in the polls for Labour after the news the country no longer in an ” official” recession. It might not have been as good as predicted but it is the signal it sends.
I still predict a sizeable majority for the Tories. Remember the Labour party will have a bad patch before election, these things go in cycles. With all the money they have to spend and the TV debates, where Cameron will come across well, they should be ok. The Liberals will get squeezed at election, people will want to vote for the winner. Expect the polls to change in a few weeks
Re: election date. Just try booking your local Hall, (or whatever else holds the ballot boxes) for May 6th
Anthony, it looks like Andrew Grice uses Baxter
Looks like the most interesting election for a long time this time. At this point I think the actual campaign (with debates) will make a difference.
Fascinating – how low will the Conservative lead go?
I reckon there’s a sweepstake there.
As I have mentioned here before the gap is narrowing because now people are begining to think about what a conservative government would be like – as opposed to just not a labour one.
Tories are not popular enough to win the election, Government may not be unpopular enough to completely lose it
““I think David Cameron should be much vaguer and less clear about his plans for the economy”?”
Well it’d be fun to see him try if nothing else
Interesting times at least, more fun than debating whether it’ll be 50 or 60 con majority.
Anthony
“and how many normal people would say “I think David Cameron should be much vaguer and less clear about his plans for the economy”?”
You really must not post partisan comments!
Obviously Labour would prefer Cameron to be even vaguer – and you are describing Labour as not being “normal” !
I think that Labour have a lot to thank John Terry for, if polling took place over the weekend as implied. He got Blair’s lack of regret over the deaths in Iraq out of the headlines. Blair is still associated with Labour in peoples’ minds even if not in reality.
I think what we can tell from the polling in january, is that there has only been a slight change throughout the month.
The Tories have slipped down a bit from 40 but there seems to be little chance of them slipping bellow 38 at this time.
The Labour vote has basically moved just over to the other side of 30 and although they are starting to gain back a bit of support, theres no sign of them narrowing the gap any further even considering that there have been a few slip ups by Cameron and the Cons last month.
I think if the Cons get back on form, then they will prob get back up to where they were and I dont really see any significant signs that Labour are going to turn it around.
Should be an interesting few months now
No slippage on 38 is the good news-nothing lost to Labour.
Brown breaking 30 with more & more regularity is the bad news.
If Labour managed to get back in on a “feel good-no austerity” platform….when would the next GE be?
In Scotland, labour on 50% and tories on 9%.
Anyone think that this will happen?
@OldNat – well done on the numbers. you clearly have too much time! (Actually that is obvious from the number of posts you make on PB
)
Alex Salmond may be right on the hung parliament – but he’ll be wrong on the SNP making any significant gains. He may not even be first minister by then!
Well, I think this particular poll can go in the bin – as with many others.
According to ComRes the “regional” shifts in a week are
Party, SE, Midlands, NE, Wales/SW, Sco,
Con, -3%, 2%, 5%, -3%, -11%
Lab, 1%, 4%, 1%, -3%, 11%
LD, 1%, -1%, -3%, -5%, 4%
As Paul pointed out – this is unlikely. I would have uswed stronger terms!
“Well, I think this particular poll can go in the bin ”
Phew-thank god for that.
Off to bed.
5 in a row for at Labour 30 or above and Cons 40 or below, perhaps without Hoon/Hewitt it would have been learlier (except for AR).
A realistic target for Labour is 33/34% enough to deny a Tory outright victory.
These polls suggest that they have a chance at least.
Re Iraq enquiry, unless GB himself is directly implicated as being central to the decisions it will have little effect.
The damage to Labour was done many years ago.
Oldnat/Paul – As ever, regional subsamples really aren’t worth the paper they are written on. They have tiny sample sizes and are not internally weighted.
The sample size that voting intentions in the Scottish subbreak were based upon is only 63, so the margin of error is plus or minus 12 points. So Labour at 50% or a shift of 11 points from month-to-month in the Scottish sub-break aren’t reasons to be sceptical of the poll – they are entirely normal and to be expected.
The moral of the story (which some never seem to get however often I nag about it) is to ignore the regional sub breaks in polls.
The polls are now almost exactly what they were before the expenses scandal began last year. The noteable difference is that the Lib Dems are higher by 2 points at the expense of the Tories.
@ PAUL
“In Scotland, labour on 50% and tories on 9%.
Anyone think that this will happen?”
It seems unlikely unless we Scots are getting very worried about Cameron. There are some reasons why we might be:
Financial sector & Public sector are both huge sources of employment in Scotland.
CONS would likely change the Barnett formula – regardless of whether it’s fair or not (I don’t want to spark a debate about it).
Scottish residents place a high value on NHS & no university fees. They think CONS would change things.
~ so 50% LAB & 9% CON is highly improbable; but not impossible.
Unfortunately for poor old Oldnat, they hardly ever do Scotland-only polling so subbreaks are all we have. Its a bit like a man dying of thirst, who drinks the salty water even though he knows its bad for him….
Anthony Wells
Of course they are nonsense. But so is the idea of sampling from two different political systems in the same poll.
As I’ve said before here, your entire industry is based on the premise that you can accurately represent the chosen population via your sampling techniques.
Clearly (and I know you say it’s all the fault of the clients who ask your industry to do the impossible) there is little more validity for including Scotland in your samples than NI.
Why doesn’t your industry point out top your clients that measuring one population at a time is the more rational approach?
@Simon Ellson – “Yes the Tories have had a bad January and certainly need to pick their game up. But this is the Phoney, Phoney War”.
It is, but we are now at the point where the terms of the debate begin to crystalise in people’s minds. The last thing the Tories wanted was to have to fight a highly defensive campaign – oppositions want to fight on the government’s record and try to avoid as much as possible detailed specifics of their own policies, especially in the circumstances we are in at present. Unfortunately they have been decidedly hesitant in policy presentation terms and have in effect called open season for a much more forensic examination of themselves with a consequent easing of the pressure on Labour. I read online today people describing a Tory U turn on their U turn over spending cuts – a little unfair, but Cameron got them into the mess. ‘Are they good enough’ will be the new media question, and as soon as you have to ask the question it’s bad news.
General comments; Improving for Labour and possibly a much more interesting election than many expected. Very positive news today from the manufacturing sector with a surge in orders and for the first time employment prospects turning positive. Lots of midlands marginals with strong manufacturing sectors. The January debt figures will be very important, and if they continue to run ahead of budget darling will be able to present the Budget as an improving picture. I wouldn’t be surprised if he bags some significant spending cuts and tries to further outflank Osborne. Brown is running out of road, but things are just beginning to happen for him.
Out of interest Anthony, what polling do we need (if the Lib Dems don’t shift from 18-20) for the hung parliament to shift from Tory largest to Labour largest?
@Quincel
That is the question.
Brown and labour had a lot of good publicity lately. Unemplyment figures, recession news. manufacturing news today. Afghan conference was big, Brown long NI stay looked good as well. Tory NI foray was disturbing. Brown looks more like a PM in control.
Is anyone following what is happening to undecideds? could it be that Tory vote is holding at an absolute figure, but former Labour, who were don’t know, are returning to the fold? I certainly get more people saying Dont Know but not Tory, than this time last year, when canvassing
—————————
At no UK General Election since 1945 has the combined Liberal and Labour vote (if you prefer, the centre-left vote) been less than 50%.
When the polls were showing a ‘centre-left vote’ in the low 40’s – last summer, for instance – that was quite a shock.
That combined ‘centre left’ vote is now approaching 50% again.
So I think what we are seeing is a return from ‘Other’ and ‘Dont know’ to ‘Labour’. And not (or not yet) a direct swing from Conservative to Labour.
I’m beginning to think that LAB+LD can take this away from the CON+UKIP.
69% don’t think the Tories would have got the UK out of recession any sooner. That’s a good result for Labour because perception of past results will be used as a guide to likely future performance.
It really has got more interesting.
Labour is to put a vote to Parliament next week on voting reform. If passed, and if there’s enough time, it’ll bind the next government to a referendum on AV after the election.
Brown will make a speech about it tomorrow a.m.
Clever Labour – putting the Tories on the back foot.
How will that play in the polls?
See page 16 of the above pdf file. Conservative shares are as follows (Labour in brackets):
South East – 40% (26%)
Midlands – 45% (29%)
North England – 36% (35%)
South West and Wales – 37% (29%)
The Conservatives ahead in all regions, massively in those with the most seats. What do the Cameron haters want from David C?
Scotland:
Labour 50 percent
SNP 18 percent
Libdem 19 percent
Con 9 percent
A poll a few weeks ago of 100 england marginals projected a conservative majority of 38 when at the time overall polls were projecting a hung parliament.
Conservatives are still doing good in the marginals they need to do good in.
This election will discredit the swingometer.
I really believe tories could win by 5 percent and still have a majority or maybe even with by less and still have a majority because they are doing well in the marginals.
Only problem with these national polls are they create momentum but on the whole Brown can run up huge numbers in safe labour seats in england and run up big numbers in scotland but it won’t do him much good.
@David in France
“At no UK General Election since 1945 has the combined Liberal and Labour vote (if you prefer, the centre-left vote) been less than 50%.”
I have been doing some analysis recently on past election results, and I think you’ll find that the percentage was fractionally under 50% in 1955 (and also 1951 if you exclude National Liberals who were absorbed by the Tories). It is only fractionally however.
But I share your interest in Don’t Knows and also the elephant in the room – Others. I have looked at the results for all general elections since 1929, and have found few interesting patterns. First of all, let me apologise to the many Scots on here because I have lumped everyone outside the three main parties as ‘Others’, including the SNP.
A few facts seem to be interesting:
1) ‘Others’ have polled over 2 million in the last three elections, but never before. In the 2005 election, the percentage of votes cast for Others was 10.3 – the highest ever. This is especially significant in a time of low turnouts.
2) The last two elections are the only ones since the War when each of the four parties needed less than 100,000 votes to win a seat. This could be the result of more scientific targetting of seats. Labour have been so efficient that in the last election they only needed about 27,000 votes per seat against 44,000 for the Conservatives, though this has declined from an all-time peak of 58,000 in 1997.
3) The combined Con/Lab seats in 2005 was 86% of the total – the lowest ever, and the lowest ever % of votes – 68%.
What I read into all of this is that the voting public are becoming disillusioned at the dominance of the two main parties, and that even if the SNP and Plaid do not make many gains, and the main English ‘Others’ do not gain any seats, there could be some surprising results caused by unexpectedly high votes for ‘Others’ in particular areas. It’s possible to imagine the odd upset in the South-East caused by UKIP or the Greens and in inner cities by the BNP, even if none of them actually win anything. Whether this all adds up to enough to swing the election result is anyone’s guess, but it might make a hung parliament more likely.
Pete B
No offence taken!
In UK terms the SNP/Plaid are “others” because of the overwhelming dominance of the English population within the UK.
It is already clear that UNS in GB is a dead duck, and the interesting thing in this next GE for me will to see whether there has been any fragmentation within English politics.
PS Here is a prediction:
The next AR poll will have a Tory lead UP to a level of between 17 and 19 points………………..
@ ROB SHEFFIELD
The CONs may have further to fall. I’m not certain their 38% is rock solid. And LAB can do better than 32%; the biggest issue with voters is the economy & that’s looking good for LAB now.
My concern is the marginals; lots of CONs believe the marginals are sewn up & they can ignore the general polls.
After the election could be even more interesting.
Reports are Brown will pull a Heath and has pledged to go on and on even if Labour gets less seats in a hung parliament than the tories.
You could have a situation with tories having 310 seats and Labour having 250 seats and Brown refusing to give up power. Brown won’t give up power in a year either. Brown would stay for the full five years. Brown controls the majority of Labour backbenchers. Who besides the conservatives would move against Brown. I can’t see lib dems or snp moving against Brown. Tories really need 323 seats to be able to have a majority to force Brown out. Take out the five seats from sinn fein and it takes 323 seats for a majority to force Brown out. If they don’t get 323 seats Brown will cling on. Brown will only go kicking and screaming.
You would also see Clegg and Salmond having the power to extract a lot from Brown right after the election.
This will be in contrast to Brown on election night in 1992 saying Major would have no moral authority for remaining PM if he didn’t win a majority with 326 seats.
I don’t agree a hung parliament with Brown in charge would only last 9 months or 18 months. No one but the conservatives would move against him and Brown doesn’t like elections and he would cling on and on and on for five more years.
@ AL J & ROB
AV electoral reform referendum is going to a vote in parliament? That really surprises me. I didn’t think LAB would have the bottle to do this before the GE.
This could actually be a good policy for LAB if it’s well reported.
How will the CONs react? Climb aboard the bandwagon, or vote against in parliament?
What do you chaps think?
This will be one to watch
Amber Star
I accept that there is more polling now than there was before previous elections, but the recent shifts are certainly making it more exciting than in the run up to previous elections!
I’ve said before (yeah – I’m repetitive
) that the critical issue in any election is the “narrative” that takes hold in constituencies.
I had expected the Tories to deliver a consistent message that would nail the English marginals down, but one gets the feeling that the narrative has become one of Tory confusion – and if that solidifies, it could become disastrous for them.
@ANTHONY WELLS
“Finally 82% said they agreed that Cameron should be clearer over what he would do about the economy. The Indy have put this as a subheading on their front page, but frankly it’s a fairly pointless question.”
Don’t agree- Tory voters and members are likely to give favourable ratings to any type of question that is asked about Tories and Cameron especially. So the obvious automatic answer here is ‘no’- with the rationale in the respondents minds being ‘because he has been clear enough- it is the government who have not spelt out how we pay down our enormous deficit etc etc etc ‘
This figure is very useful as it shows Cameron and the Tories are in big trouble on the economy EVEN with a large proportion of their respective voters (as only 18% gave a positive response in terms of Cameron compared to the associated polls levels of Tory support at 38 i.e. so over 50% of people saying they will vote Conservative at the moment are NOT yet convinced by Cameron’s economic policies.
That’s surely news Anthony and merits rather more than a (if I may say) flippant swotting away.
@ JASON
If Labour loses, Brown will move on if he gets the right offer. My guess is he’d like a place in the Lords & a public service position in EU/ IMF/ World Bank or similar.
Amber Star
Or Brown could do a Ted Heath and sulk on the back benches. He isn’t Blair.
@ OLDNAT
I love that expression – narrative & agree that the CONs don’t have a strong, consistent story anymore.
Thank you for the link to Margo’s Bill (on the other thread), I will read every word & think about it carefully over the next weekend.
@AMBER STAR
“My concern is the marginals; lots of CONs believe the marginals are sewn up & they can ignore the general polls.”
I think it depends where the marginal’s are- I think in the south and east of England there are big leads. But I don’t believe- either as a geek of over 30 years standing nor anecdotally (let alone the bits and bobs of data we have had- that the midlands and northern marginal’s are anyway near as pro Conservative as Cameron and, indeed, many posters on this forum wish to believe.
Furthermore the point OLDNAT makes about ‘what is the narrative’ is crucial.
Despite all the vast array of mass media wall-to-wall support and political journo obsequiousness, the current narrative is one of Tory confusion, vacuity and incompetence; the narrative of the last few months has been-post PBR and stark messages Darling gave- a vacuum in Tory policy in the face of a major series of policy challenges and with an election very fast approaching.
These ‘negative narratives’ will hit them even in southern and eastern marginal’s and- if this trend continues- you will potentially have the McCain V Obama scenario where the former had to spend time and money in places the Republicans thought they had sown up years before.
@ OLD NAT
I’d think Gordon Brown would get bored as a back bencher. Strangely enough, I think Brown has more dignity than Blair, despite some of the media’s attempts to assasinate his character.
@ ROB SHEF.
Good points, thanks
The CONs might be congratulating themselves too soon on some marginals; & while they concentrate on target marginals, may fail to notice LD eating into seats they were taking for granted.
I also agree with your point about 82% saying CONs need to be clearer about their policies on the economy. I believe that is actually more important than these types of questions usually are.
Amber Star
I accept that this is simply speculation – but there is a dark side to Brown’s character which could keep him in place “picking the scab” , while still trying to control the party in Scotland (as he has done for many years), as well as the ambition that might want to make him “accept” an invitation to take a senior job in the IMF or similar but which would divorce him from his political roots.
I wouldn’t like to predict which aspect of him would dominate.
@JASON
I won’t paste it all in but your basic point was: ‘look at the regional polls you fools, extrapolate from that and the Conservatives are way ahead and cruising for a 50 plus majority’
Anthony put its more poetically then I would:
“As ever, regional subsamples really aren’t worth the paper they are written on. They have tiny sample sizes and are not internally weighted.”
@ OLD NAT
I’m willing to speculate that marriage has changed him. I don’t think his wife would support scab picking or sulks. But I do ‘get’ your point that he would be loathe to leave the party [in Mandelson's care?]
@OLDNAT; @AMBER STAR
In the event of defeat and a quick Clegg-Cameron coalition I think Browns default position would be to try and cling on; then when ousted (as he will be- the world will have passed him by within the PLP) sulk like a Ted and then when he is totally ignored doing that take up a global governance or eastern US University position.
I just cannot see him going quietly- I agree with OLNAT on that.
In an HP where the numbers make a Lab-Lib pact possible: well he has every constitutional right to do a Ted Heath from 1974 and try to get Clegg to sign up.
But that simply is not going to happen- it would be disastrous for Clegg to do it.
Then the clinging on/ sulking begins- just a little bit later.
@ ROB SHEF. & OLD NAT
You guys made me LOL. Men are much better at understanding other men, so you are likely right. There will be sulking if he loses the LAB leadership.
@Rob Sheffield
“we have Anthony’s prediction as HP 12 short ”
Actually that’s the UNS projection – if you click on the “more” link you’ll see that Anthony’s projection is HP 4 short.
But they are only projections rather than predictions – I think it’s rather early to be making specific predictions when we don’t even know the election date yet!
@Yariv
“I think it’s rather early to be making specific predictions when we don’t even know the election date yet!”
You mean my “I’d still be surprised to see Conservatives fall below 38 and Labour get more than 32 on GE day”.
That’s not a prediction just speculation !!
Though I am glad to see you publicising that UPR is predicting a HP even with regional variations (and southern marginal’s) factored in !!
The poll gap narrowed along with optimistic economic news. It remains to be seen if it will hold or if the gap will do back to about 11.
Anthony – Cameron is flailing in his economic position. Probably for the only time this year Harriet Harman was right that the Tory postion will change by this afternoon. If you asked the question in reverse you would get a high no%. Quite honestly he’s lost a lot of people on this
@Rob
Sorry, I wasn’t referring to your predi… I mean, speculation!
I was trying to emphasize the difference between a prediction and a projection.
I disagree that Anthony is predicting a hung parliament. I don’t know what his prediction is (my guess is that he’d shy away from making a specific one), but the site is merely using a PROJECTION which shows a HP with the Conservatives 4 short.
Also, see the blurb on the projection page: “Note that both these projections are on what would happen in a general election tomorrow – not for the next general election.”
@Amber Star
Half the cabinet wanted the electoral reform vote at this election but the other half thought it would look too poltiical.
The bill introduced now in parliament isn’t going anywhere as there isn’t enough time for it to work its way through parliament before the election.
Remember Labour and their electoral reform promises in the past before the 1997 election.
Does anyone know whether the parties have sorted out their squabbling over the election debates? The last I heard was that they were in jeopardy because agreement couldn’t be reached over issues such as whether the audience would be allowed to ask questions.
@Yariv
apologies- I was using the word ‘prediction’ when the spirit of my point (about the UPR site figures for HP that take account of regional variations) actually meant ‘projection’:
I’ll bear that in mind going forward !
“I think David Cameron should be much vaguer and less clear about his plans for the economy”?
I’m afraid I’ll say that…
The pressure to bring Labour ministers past and present before Chilcot for questioning has succeeded, Even Brown will appear before the election.
Attention should now turn to the opposition parties, On what grounds were the Tory leadership and Parliamentary party so certain that war was justified? And on what grounds were the LibDems, plus Kenneth Clarke and a handful of other Tories, so sure that it wasn’t?
With the future role of a strengthened Parliament and more accountable government being key issues, and therefore up for scrutiny in the forthcoming manifestos, public interrogation of these people, before the GE date is announced, could play a critical role in the election process.
That might help to hold the feet of the next Government closer to the fires of constitutional reform. At the moment, from my perspective, it looks far too much like business-more-or- less-as-usual from the ‘Big Two’, ie skullduggery!
@ Quincel asked ‘what polling do we need (if the Lib Dems don’t shift from 18-20) for the hung parliament to shift from Tory largest to Labour largest?’
According to the swingometer, a straight 1.1% swing from Con to Lab, from the currently posted 39, 31, 19, 11 would produce:
Conservative 37.9 -> 286 seats
Labour 32.1 -> 287 seats
Liberal Democrats 19 -> 48 seats
Others 11% -> 11 seats
+ Northern Ireland 18 seats
FPTP – [snip!]
The Lib Dems should be careful how they react to that poisoned chalice, and stick closer than ever to their MMC/STV commitment.
WOLF MACNEILL:
The “new” boundaries that are going to come for the election and which are responsible for those figures you give are now 10 years old, having been based on the electoral register from February 2000. The system certainly has to be changed so there isn’t such a long gap between when the boundaries are drawn and when they come into effect.
@ Quincel
Apologies, my error, the swing would need to be a straight Con->Lab 1.6% (not 1.1%) from the currently posted figures, in order to produce the numbers I have shown
@Andy Stidwell
I take your point, but ‘not guilty, your honour’, I simply applied the swingometer. I’ll leave it to Anthony to explain (again) its basis.
More generally, the party political haggling and horse trading involved in adjusting single member constituencies (something else hidden from the public at large about ‘their’ democracy) is always going to lead to long lag times. It also produces daft cuts into, through, across and all around natural communities. See what has regularly happened to Norwich, York and Cambridge for example.
I think that one of the great advantages (and, to my politically nerdish mind, great beauties) of multi-member constituencies (MMCs) is that none of that cloak and dagger stuff would happen, because it wouldn’t need to. The boundaries of the very much larger constituencies that would be required would remain settled over long periods of time, with population changes being reflected by raising or reducing the number of MPs to be elected, according to pre-agreed and immutable thresholds.
Once it had done the initial MMC-defining task, the Boundaries Commission could be shrunk down, and most of its running costs returned to the Consolidated Fund. The millions of hours and treasure wasted by politicos and public servants at every level arguing about the precise configurations of the York doughnut or the Queen Edith’s slice could instead be devoted to productive ends.
And on that great day, when the system used finally matters more than the minutiae of the constituency boundaries, the people still stuck on the top of the Clapham omnibus would finally achieve something close to representative representation.
The thought of Brown getting anywhere close to Downing Street come Polling day will send thousands out to vote Tory in England.Most of these Polls are within the margin of error and come Polling day I predict a Conservative majority of 60-80 with around 15 gains from the Lib Dems who I believe will gain approx.the same from Labour.QED.
I love the phrases used on today’s thread.
“Non-voting voters” and “representative representation” should both be put in the dictionary!
Well, I said a few days ago people shouldn’t jump to conclusions based on one poll. That’s now three in a row showing the Tories below 40 and Labour over 30. I think it’s same to assume that there’s been a recovery in Labour’s fortune and a slight softening in the Conservative vote.
As someone who never wants to see a Tory government again in his lifetime, I’m pleased with this trend.
(Don’t necessarily think Labour deserves a fourth term, I’m more of an ABT – Anyone But Tories!)
Prediction still sticks at 37-33-22 for polling day.
Interesting stuff.
@Wolf:
Thanks
‘NIGEL SMITH
The thought of Brown getting anywhere close to Downing Street come Polling day will send thousands out to vote Tory in England’
Really? People may be sick of Labour but I would argue that Brown basically gets very little reaction one way or another unless one considers boredom. Brown I would argue is really neither a major positive or negative for Labour, unlike Bliar.
much as these polls do signify a trend they do still all show a probably decisive Tory lead albeit a small one.
I am still waiting for a poll to show Labour above 32% and the Tories below 38%. Until that happens I still think the Tories have to be considered big favourites
Yariv –
I’m not making any predictions. The UNS projection is just that, how the polling average on the front page would translate into seats on a uniform swing.
The UKPR projection on there is actually a whole lot better, it factors in some regional differences but the main difference is that it takes account of MPs standing down, personal votes and so on.
Neither are what I think will happen at the election – if I do make a prediction, I’ll be on the front page and will be much closer to the election date!
@Oldnat “I had expected the Tories to deliver a consistent message that would nail the English marginals down, but one gets the feeling that the narrative has become one of Tory confusion – and if that solidifies, it could become disastrous for them.”
While I share your view, I will say that I have posted here for a considerable time that I have long considered Cameron’s ‘convictions’ to be driven by PR requirements and that he is a poor strategist. [Yes, we know - and that one was a bit too much of a 'Another 1000 words about why I don't like David Cameron - AW]
I don’t like Brown in general, but there is something admirable about a man who keeps getting battered and just bulldozes through everything, refusing to accept defeat. Maybe the ‘clunking fist’ will have the day after all?
The WMA is 39:30:19. Curiously there is still not a very convincing 1- or 2-month trend (R2= 0.28). Over the last 2 weeks there is a strong trend (R2=0.71) but that’s an artificially short time period. There are 95 days to the (probable) election and over the last 95 days there is a reasonably convincing trend (R2=0.56) and if that trend were followed there would be a CLead of 7 at the election.
I still think there will be political blunders by Brown and that the campaign with a demoralsied and cashless Labour party will go against him. But the statistics suggest a real possibility of a hung parliament. Since almost everyone agrees that this is a really bad outcome I don’t think it will happen. I also wonder whether the recovery in Labour support is confined to their solid areas, and less evident in the marginals. But this is all speculation.
Anthony – have you yet revised your view that it’stoo late for Brown to make a complete comeback?
Personally, I would be amazed if you had on the basis of recent polls, but the events that would need to take place for a further recovery are not so locked in the realms of fantasy as they were.
Jack – Nigel (above) said the idea of “Brown again” would make the Tories turn out “in their thousands”. Would the Labour Party not be rather pleased with that outcome?
There are now some Conservative supporters who are hoping that somehow, even if there is a noticeable further swing back to Labour, there won’t be in the marginals.
Obviously it is possible for the marginals to swing more or less than the national average – we’ve seen that several times in recent elections – but I think that there’s a limit to how great this differential will be. People who live in marginals aren’t a different species from those who live in safe Labour or Conservative seats. If the national swing to the Conservatives were to decline to, say, 4 or 4.5%, it would be unrealistic for it to be as high as, say, 8% in the (semi-)marginals.
@ Alec
I completely agree with all your points, especially the dreadful Tory games in NI, which I have also blogged about here. If that frightens people not to vote Tory it would be all to the good in this case, because it is frightening.
But, more generally, if this GE did lead to the Tories going down in confusion then I – though a non-Tory – would fear the loss of what started out looking like a Christian Democrat-style, civilised, modernising project for a party that had ossified, but would in the end be in danger of bequeathing charge of the Party to Georg Haider-style xenophobes.
I like your point about Brown soldiering on regardless – in keeping with the worst as well as best aspects of his complex personality. Reminds me a bit of Major in 1992: indomitable against all the naysayers, and ultimately triumphant, which Brown could yet be, in terms of seats at any rate.
However, Labour is flat at 30/31, LD are flat at 19, and none of the last 10 polls show the Tories above 40, four putting them in the upper 30s. The next Populus poll (today?) is I think from the only remaining outfit not to have reported since its previous poll gave the Tories over 40, in their case 41 on 10 January.
So, it will be especially interesting to see if they buck, confirm, or intensify the current small downward Tory trend, and whether Labour and the LDs move either way. But, whatever its findings, it will still only be ONE poll.
There has been a definite trend away from the Tories for the past month and it is difficult to pinpoint just why that should be. I sense that the anger in the country regarding the economy, MP’s expenses and Afghanistan has abated…as has the hysteria about immigration. In recent local byelections the BNP has seen a notable fall in support, thankfully. A sign that the ‘race issue’ is no longer big news. If you add Cameron’s obvious limitations, the Tories shamble of a policy for the economy and their promise to repeal the hunting ban, it becomes a little clearer as to why their support is beginning to wane. [snipped - read the comments policy please - AW]
@Barnaby JL Marder
There are now some Conservative supporters who are hoping that somehow, even if there is a noticeable further swing back to Labour, there won’t be in the marginals.
————————-
True. But there could be an element of truth in their expectation.
i. Voters in marginals are more heavily targetted. And the Conservatives have much more money to burn on publicity than Labour.
ii. In my opinion, voters in marginals are more inclined to stay ’switched’ once they have switched alleigance. So marginal voters who voted Labour last time, if they have decided to vote Conservative this time, are harder to win back (for Labour) than voters in non-marginals.
“People who give up smoking are more zealously anti-smoking than those who never smoked”.
Of course the second point is just my feeling. I have no evidence for that.
Anthony -
“I’m not making any predictions.”
That’s exactly what I predicted you would say
Anthony Wells
Have you by any chance seen the “Worcester Woman” survey for Red magazine that David Maddox is pushing in his `She’s smart, she’s savvy and she could decide general election – Worcester Woman’s back´ in the Scotsman at http://news.scotsman.com/politics/She39s-smart-she39s-savvy-and.6033087.jp ?
As usual, he’s trying to make bricks without straw from the meaningless “Scotlandshire” sub-sample, but a real poll of 2000 such ladies on a GB basis might be interesting.
The details don’t seem to be available on any of the main pollsters’ websites and, as usual with Maddox, none is quoted in his “article”.
Brownedov –
Paul Waugh suggested it had been carried out by someone called Demographic (the sort of name for a research company that renders you completely ungoogleable. )
So no idea if it’s anything meaningful
Amber Star
**How will the CONs react? Climb aboard the bandwagon, or vote against in parliament?
What do you chaps think? **
My guess is the Conservatives will condemn Labour for ‘’fiddling’’ the voting system.
They will vote against in Parliament because they will say FPTP has ‘’served them or the country well’’ & it ensures strong government.
Labour will respond by saying the Cons are out of touch and backward looking and AV is fairer.
Btw Can anyone tell us how the marginal’s are doing – in light of the recent polls?
Anthony Wells
Thanks for the info. Maddox promoting it should have been warning enough.
“ungoogleable” – lovely word and quite so.
Anthony
I do apologise – should have addressed my question to you
Do you know how the marginals are panning out in view of the recent polls?
The tory high command wasn’t for doing any deals with DUP. All 18 candidates will be tory and UUP.
Tories would never do a DUP deal. The media has the knives out for Cameron.
Al J – Short answer is no. Normal polls can’t tell us anything about how the marginals are behaving in comparison to other seats.
The Tories have the Budget to look forward too. That will hurt Labour.
If we slip back in to negative growth on 26th April (ish) then the game is up.
It’s worth remembering that the ending of the recession was supposed to be the big danger for the Tories.
Labour are still barely above 30% and the detailed marginal polling suggests a good Tory majority.
Funny how noone has a problem with the DUP voting with Labour but the idea of the DUP being involved with the Tories is a big deal. Clearly someone has got better negotiating and presentational skills and clearly it isn’t Owen Patterson. One can understand the DUP being a little bit reluctant to give policing powers to a group the BBC have on record as being involved in trying to murder supporters of the DUP.
The Tories seem to have a problem that the voters aren’t voting on whether David Cameron is a nicer man than Gordon Brown but who would make the more effective leader of the country Cameron’s deals in NI don’t give the impression of strong leadership. He needs to show the bullying side of his nature.
” The very idea that a mainland political party should consider formal alliance with one side of the sectarian divide in NI is an outrageous risk, when for three decades and throughout all kinds of idealogical divides, Tories and labour have been at one over the most serious long term security issue faced by the UK”
Well, that is something they haven’t been. Labour has been allied to the SDLP for years, and promoted a United Ireland by consent (somehow) up till 1996.
There’s nothing odd about the Conservatives supporting Unionism, given that they’re a Unionist party. Any more than it’s odd that Fianna Fail should support Irish Nationalism,
But your point certainly demonstrates how poor Conservative media-management has been recently. They’ve allowed a non-issue to damage them.
“There are now some Conservative supporters who are hoping that somehow, even if there is a noticeable further swing back to Labour, there won’t be in the marginals.”
The swing in the marginals is not going to be *that* different from the overall swing. But a difference of even 1% may make a big difference in terms of seat outcomes. Something like a third of Labour MPs in marginal seats are standing down, to be replaced by relative unknowns. Of itself, that could produce a differential swing.
@sunbeam
“The Tories have the Budget to look forward too. That will hurt Labour”
Agreed, though rather like PBR- with a brief dip then a recovery. But- and this is important- it will set out the minutiae of public spending department-by-department and that means Cameron and Osborne will have to pick that gauntlet up and set out the Tories detailed plans. That will hurt them also….if they have them. If they don’t have plans as detailed as Darlings that will hurt them even more.
“If we slip back in to negative growth on 26th April (ish) then the game is up. ”
I don’t know of any independent economists who are predicting that but it would be a disaster for Brown and Darling if it did happen: though it would also give extra credence to the Cable narrative about not cutting in 2010-2011. This occurrence would actually be difficult for the Tories as well- only real winner from this- if it happened- I can see are the LD’s.
I still think it will be a victory for the Tories but only just. Maybe along the lines of the 1992 majority of 22.
Cameron is not doing himself any favours at the moment. Perhaps someone should send him a cushion beacuse the amount of time he spends sitting on the fence his backside must be sore by now!
I am still surprised and a bit dissappointed that the Lib Dems are not doing better against Labour.
@Sunbeam
Please share with us this ‘detailed marginal polling’ whose existence Anthony denies but that suggests to you ‘a good Tory majority’.
The marginals that the Tories would need to win for a good working majority are on their target list at about positions 125 -145. In other words, the seats beyond the 125 gains that would achieve a bare majority. They’d need to win most of these, as they cannot be sure of winning every single one of nos. 001-125.
We can be confident that there will be greatly varying regional swings, plus differential swings depending on their main opponents – Labour, LD, Plaid, SNP. It was widely rumoured last month, for example, that Tory private polling was predicting as few as half a dozen net gains from the Lib Dems, rather than the 20+ that uniform national swings had been indicating – and that was when the Tories were 2-3% more buoyant in the polls. There’s no way of judging that one.
The fact is we simply cannot tell what is going on unless we get large and statistically robust, individual constituency polls in a big sample of Tory target constituencies, at least 25 from within the group 75-145, I guess (but I am really guessing).
Who will be doing that amount of expensive work all the way through to polling day, apart from the Tories themselves of course? And they’ll naturally be keeping the findings to themselves.
Wolf Macneill, we’ve had two recent surveys in Labour-held marginals which do point to bigger than average swings. Angus Reid will also be publishing such a survey in the next few days.
But, I think we’d want a few more before coming to any firm conclusions.
@Sean Fear – accept your point re Lab/SDLP, but the key factor here is an opposition party, likely to soon enter government, discussing in secret – although denying discussions took place- unifying with the unionist parties at a time when there are extremely delicate negoatiations over the very future of Stormont. In about 18 weeks time cameron could well be sitting across the table from martin McGuiness trying to rescue a peace process that has been a great success for both Tories and Labour. Are you seriously trying to tell me what the Tory front benchers have done is nothing more than a bit of poor media management?
@Sunbeam – “It’s worth remembering that the ending of the recession was supposed to be the big danger for the Tories.” It may well still be. Look at the economic confidence numbers, now rising sharply, and look at the front page of todays FT. Manufacturing exports are rising at their fastest rate ever, with manufacturing activcity as a whole at a 15 year high. Surveys indicate this sector is now in positive recruitment again. This is the ideal way to grow out of the recession and debt problems, and suggests Q1 figures could be better then anticipated. There are also alot of manufacturing heavy marginals in places like the west midlands. Tory economic policy is also getting increasingly confused. Cameron made much of the Office of Budgetary Responsibility, but now it’s the bank of England who will decide spending levels. They are going to retain the 2% CPI target, when this was the cause of the problem in the first place – only targeting consumer prices, not asset and credit bubbles. Today Osborne has in fact been less clear than Darling over what his spending strategy will be.
There is very little time left, and Brown has an awful lot of residual anger to overcome, but I sincerely believe that if the election was 6 months and not 3 month hence Cameron would be toast.
Every marginal is different though. It’s not just that there are Lab-LD ones, Lab-Con ones and Con-LD ones (leaving aside Celtic Britain and oddities like Brighton Pavillion), it’s that their demographics are far from homogenous. Warrington South is different from Ipswich, and both of whom are hugely different from Poplar and Limehouse, but all would fall on roughly the same uniform swing from Labour to the Tories.
You’d therefore need to poll each different type – Kent supermarginals, London commuter belt, midland marginals, northern marginals, Lib Dem northern targets, south-west marginals…
It’s unlikely anybody will pay for that and display the results publically. Polling of relevant social groups will almost certainly be combined with demographics to produce rough estimates, but even the parties probably won’t poll every single permutation.
In addition, Angus Reid’s contribution will be problematic, as their weighting produces notably different results to that used by everybody else. They could be right that Labour have a ceiling of 24, but if that’s the case then the Tory majority will be well over 100, so marginals don’t matter. And if they’re wrong, that makes their marginal figures hard to use without inputting some kind of obscenely hard to justify adjustment to the numbers.
“Are you seriously trying to tell me what the Tory front benchers have done is nothing more than a bit of poor media management? ”
Certainly. No one expects the Irish government to be neutral in such negotiations, so why should the Conservatives be?
Alec,
Surveys based on economic confidence have been consistently more optimistic than recorded growth in output – which has disappointed continuously throughout this recession.
Given that manufacturing output is now far lower than it was 15 years ago, that doesn’t seem much to write home about.
I expect Sunbeam means earlier polls of marginals.
Al J asked me about recent polls, and there haven’t been any recent published polls of marginal seats. If you go back a bit there has been some though.
Anthony makes a good point about the wording of the economic question in this poll. All the same, many respondents would understand the symbolic importance of this question, and it is striking that even many Tory supporters must have agreed with it.
The decreasing Tory lead should be particularly worrying for them because it has come at a time when they are campaigning more actively than Labour, specifically in relation to their billboard campaign.
Given that Others includes regional parties, SNP and Plaid, and that many smaller parties will only stand in selected seats, recent polls, in which most movement appears to between Others and major parties, need to be taken with care. The trends, which seem to be small but consistent over several polls, may hide considerable difference between different seats.
The Tory billboard campaign seems to have picked on a Labour/Conservative issue, the NHS, and implicitly criticises the Government. It is far from obvious that this is the right tactic when the Tories need to prevent votes drifting away to UKIP (see recent posts by myself and others for Cameron’s Witney seat) and when in order to get an overall majority the Conservatives need to exploit the LibDems currently largely stagnant position in the polls by picking up the considerable number of seats in which they are close behind the LibDems (see discussion e.g. for Southport).
The bottom line is that given the current condition of the UK the Conservatives really ought to be doing better by comparison with psephological history. So, come to that, should the LibDems.
@Sean Fear – “Surveys based on economic confidence have been consistently more optimistic than recorded growth in output – which has disappointed continuously throughout this recession”
Two points. Firstly, I’m not sure they have. Given that GDP figures take three years to finalise, we can’t yet say this. In the majority of cases recently the revisions from first estimates have been upwards, sometimes very substantially so. Many economists are also beginning to think that measures of public opinion and purchasing patterns are in fact a better way to measure traditional forward economic indicators. Google search pattern analysis was more effective at predicting the recession than GDP figures. Secondly, what does it matter? Voters make their mind up on their own experiences, not some technical measure of the gross national economic performance. So what if they are ‘wrong’ if that is what they believe at the time. At present voters are becoming increasingly confident, and that is what swings votes.
On your last point, of course there has been a long term and historic decline in manufacturing which predates this government (and the one before that). That’s not the point. If manufacturing is expanding at its fastest rate for 15 years and is taking on workers now it means falling unemployment and increasing government revenue. Just accept it as good news, if not for the government then for the folks who might have the chance to get back into work.
Are we getting a populus poll tonight?
Also, what are people thinking of Angus Reid – could everyone else be getting it wrong?
Down Wolf.
I did mean earlier polls, Anthony. The recent one in the NotW suggested a comfortable Tory majority. As have the old PoliticalHome ones of a good while ago.
@ Rob Sheppard – how will the economy do after a VAT rise and a [so far] bad winter? Negative growth is hardly much of a decline from 0.1% growth.
The Tories certainly seem to be going thru a rough trot. Is it a blip? Probably but they are pretty poor right now.
However, once they dust of the posters of Brown with the words – ‘Do you want 5 more years………’
Anthony
Thanks for your answer.
The next poll on marginals will be very telling.
Barnaby and others re marginals.
The most recent survey I recall showed a 8.3% swing as opposed to the average at the time of 6.5% UNS in marginals needing a 4-10% swing the assumption being seat needing 4% or less are certain con gains from Labour. NOTW, ICM Jan 23rd in the archive)
I have suggested earlier that the increase in marginals versus UNS is exponential so if the UNS swing increases by 20% to 7.8% expect at least 20% extra in marginals to 9.96% – a higher delta by 0.4 near enough, This could be even higher.
But this works in reverse so a 20% drop in UNS swing to 5.2 would be at least 20% in marginals narrowing the delta by 0.4 – again this may be more.
As such as the polls narrow (if they do further) expect the marginal premium to narrow.
Also as LD’s wil probably hold more than UNS projects the Cons have to go deeper and as Wolf has suggested some ‘more marginal’ Con targets from labour will be held for specfic reasons.
Still this will be irrelevant if the overall lead does not fall a bit more.
@ Frederic Stansfield ‘The bottom line is that given the current condition of the UK the Conservatives really ought to be doing better by comparison with psephological history. So, come to that, should the LibDems’.
I think I understand your point about the Tories: for their own electoral prospects, they need to be further ahead at this stage. So, using 1992 as an example, the Labour opposition, having led the widely written-off Tories in the polls by a mile for a long time, were only (on average) 2% ahead on 11 March when John Major, defending a majority of almost 90, called the election; on 8 April, Labour went on to lose it by 7.6%. Your message seems to be: Cameron beware!
However, I’m not sure what you are trying to say about the Lib Dems’ current standing. They seem to have been on c.19% for a while. I’m sure they’d rather be on the 22.1 they achieved on election day in 2005. Unless they now screw up, they are more likely than not to get closer to that figure over the next couple of months, as increasing media coverage, and their own doorstep campaigning, gradually raise their profile. But, given the far more equal broadcast media coverage which must kick in when Brown names the day, they are most likely to peak late in the official campaign as they have done ever since they were formed.
Here’s what happened to them in the elections from 1992-2005:
1992: average poll standing on day election called (APSDEC): 15.2 Election result (ER): 18.3
1997: APSDEC: 12.5; ER: 17.2
2001: APSDEC: 12.7; ER: 18.3
2005: APSDEC: 19.5; ER: 22.1
Note that even in 1992, in their first GE after the SDP+ Lib merger, and with the spectre of ‘hung parliament’ being threatened by both the ‘Big Two’, they still bettered their initial campaign standing by 3%.
Note also that LDs study and remember their electoral history the way that Labour and the Tories remember their time in office. It’s all they’ve got. And it explains in part while they’re currently sounding so confident about the 2010 GE outcome.
@jim Jam – your analysis is interesting. I suppose almost by definition, a facet of marginals is that voters swing. (No, not like that). Everyone assumes there is a fixed marginal premium for the Tories, but this assumes the marginal swing voters who have swung already are completely fixed in their voting intention now and will not swing back. Intuitively, although not backed up by any scientific evidence, it might be possible to argue that swing voters are more likely to swing back if the tide turns.
[Snipped - sorry Alec, I know it wasn't your intent to be partisan, but it was a post that boiled down to "look, the Conservatives have done something rubbish", and it naturally provoked other posts defending them which I've also moderated - AW]
@Alec
In this case, I think that the Lib Dem +3% campaigning gain trend will counter any ‘Conservatives are doing better in the marginals’ effect. Both because it’ll dampen that substantialy, but also because of the tendancy for at last 2% tactical voting in the Lib Dem favour.
My main reasoning is the voters in marginals are more likely to be affected than elsewhere by time for a change and other messages and therefore more likely to vote hence the swing will be bigger there than UNS.
Should the gap narrow ,therefore, then the underlying factors (more scrutiny of the cons perhaps) will also have more impact leading to a narrowing of the marginal swing premium.
Ben –
I thought there might have been, but I’ve heard nothing so my guess is I got the wrong end of the stick and it’s going to be done over next weekend.
Anthony
I have posted in response to this from ALEC :-
“Tory economic policy is also getting increasingly confused. Cameron made much of the Office of Budgetary Responsibility, but now it’s the bank of England who will decide spending levels. They are going to retain the 2% CPI target, when this was the cause of the problem in the first place – only targeting consumer prices, not asset and credit bubbles. Today Osborne has in fact been less clear than Darling over what his spending strategy will be.”
Alec’s post has not been snipped-my response is in moderation.
I don’t understand.
Anthony-the post in question from Alec was at 3.06pm today-it is still there.
My post in response was at 7.05pm today-it’s still in moderation.
Also, what are people thinking of Angus Reid – could everyone else be getting it wrong?
————————–
the on printed paper worth not are they.
Colin – sorry, but it was a post getting into a debate with Alec about whether Conservative economic policy was any good or not… and this is not a venue for party political debate.
As I said yesterday, things have slipped too far towards silly partisan comments, so I’m moderating harshly for a bit.
Don’t take that to mean that you or Alec are particular culprits, neither of you are at all, but if I let through comments like that it encourages people who do just want to point score off the other side.
Anthony – apologies for the rant – quite right of you to snip it.
ANTHONY
“Colin – sorry, but it was a post getting into a debate with Alec about whether Conservative economic policy was any good or not”
No -with great respect Anthony it was not.
I considered ALEC’s version of GO’s speech incorrect-I gave the actual quotes to prove it. I expressed no opinion on them.
ALECS’s opinion that “Tory economic policy is also getting increasingly confused” was allowed by you-it’s still there.
I posted the opinions of a number of British Industrialists who expressed a different opinion today-you disallowed that-its still in moderation.
Please explain to me how it is possible to correct misquotes & partial quotes on UKPR.
If it is not, then I fail to understand the basis of your “impartiality”
With respect Colin – you don’t know how many posts get moderated because only the poster can see it.
Also I suggest you accept Anthony’s decision out of respect for his right to moderate in any way he sees fit.
Thanks
ALJ
I don’t need to.
I am sure Anthony would wish us all to feel that his manifest right to moderate is excercised even handedly
I am asking why my correction of ALEC’s description of a speech by GO is disallowed, when the factual errors & omissions in that description are allowed.
I am asking why an opinion by ALEC on “THe Tories economic policy”-the very thing Anthony wishes not to have debated is allowed -and yet I am not allowed to point to contrary opinions by Industrialists.
Not my opinions-my post expressed none.
I love reading this site-and enjoyed posting on it but I amnow totally confused at the way impartiality is administered on it.
Anthony
Unlike some, it seems, I haven’t got the time to spend all day monitoring this message board but I do have a look a couple of times a day and I have to say that I find it very irritating that a fair numbers of comments appear to be interchange between a limited number of people which often descends into partisanship or quasi-partnership – this then seems to involve intervention by yourself. It may be irrational on my part, but it puts me off posting as I feel it’s a waste of time given the undercurrent of off topic sniping.
Oh come on Colin. I think arguing with Anthony is like arguing with the ref when you’ve been shown a red card. Things are going to hot up as the election draws nearer. Maybe we’ll end up with a sin bin!
Valerie :-0
I find it odd how Labour can claim credit (and be given it by a substaintial minority of people) for getting the UK out of recession but blame the “global environment” for entering the recession. They cannot have it both ways. The rest of the industralised world left recession last summer and we were at least 1 quarter late. DOesn`t alter the fact that boom and bust was not cancelled by GB.
April will be interesting when Q1 GDP is released, especially if it shows a contraction.
Colin.
Because this place began as a site for discussion of polls and implications. Over the last 12 / 24 months much of it has become a more common-and lesser- party political brawl site. I’ve even indulged.
Anthony- as it is his site – is allowed to do what he likes especially with party political whinges. Party comments should not actually exist here at all. Those who dont like party comments being dealt with can find somewhere else to make their complaints. Except where Anthony opens his ‘free for all comments politcial brawl comments’ thread…
colin
For :-0 read
Valerie
testing
I feel a bit sorry for Dave and George really. They must be hoping for negative growth in the next quarter’s GDP figures but can’t really say that unless they want the accusation of being unpatriotic to stick. That’s not what we voters expect from the boys in blue.
Here here. We all have a common interest, otherwise we wouldn’t be on here.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/7140953/The-only-economic-advice-the-Tories-need—cut-spending.html
I recommend this article in the Daily Telegraph
Is there a reason why my posts are now suddenly “awaiting moderation” ?
Wouldn’t go as far as to say they hope for negative growth Valerie. What the Conservatives should be concentrating on is their own strategey to deal with the financial situation and put this to the nation. So far, all the Conservatives have done is attack Labour.
Whilst the majority of the country is dissolusioned with Labour’s failures, the Conservatives to date have gained merely because of dissatisfaction with Labour, Brown in particular, and not as a result of smart and slick election strategey on their part. Personally I don’t believe Cameron will fire up the jet engines of the Conservative party until the big day is announced in terms of policy publicity- but will this be too late for him to gain any decent majority?? Interesting.
Does anyone know when the day is likely to be announced (assuming it will be May 6th) – is it usually 4 weeks before?
@ Sunbeam
In a spirit of restraint, I question whether the Tories are likely to be helped out of their current downslide by threatening people with the prospect of five more years of Brown. Actually, it’s pretty unbelievable anyway, looking at the rate of wear and tear he’s suffering, and perhaps when he’s at his most prominent in the campaign people might even start to think ‘Vote Brown, soon get a Milliband, could be worse’.
Leaving such speculation behind, I think Cameron and Osborne’s problem is not the nailing of Brown but – as many have posted – getting their own act together. With the election likely to be called in about eight weeks time, they have almost no scope for any more slip-ups.
If it’s only slip-ups – rather a lot in a short time to be sure, but maybe that’s it – then it can still be fixed by excellent strategic management from now on.
But the pattern and imperceptibly gradual acceleration of the misjudgements – from the opportunistic hostage to fortune on EPP withdrawal when running for leader, through to the Stern blunder this week – increasingly seems to point to strategic management itself being Cameron’s problem. For that there are no quick fixes, only a slow unravelling of the project under full public gaze, as happened to John McCain.
If this is a reasonable assessment, then by the end of next week, I think we’ll have a better idea of whether it’s ‘only’ slip-ups or far more serious, by the middle of next month we’ll know for sure. And by election day, three leadership debates later, so will the electorate.
And on that basis, 3-4% of the electorate, up or down from 39%, will make the difference between outright Tory majority and, at worst, their possible failure even to be the largest party.
Surbiton – all comments with a link in get automatically held back for moderation.
Mike – whether or not they tried to blame it upon global factors, polls showed that a majority of people did hold the government at least partially to blame for the recession, though an even higher proportion of people blamed the banks and bankers.
So in this instance, the government got some blame for things going wrong, and they appear to be getting some credit for things getting better again. This isn’t really the place to discuss whether they deserve either
It is a fact that economic recoveries are usually under way for the best part of a year before they become apparent to the general public. Until then they are only known to those people who read business pages.
it does however serve as a warning to Cameron and co not to get to get totally bogged down in economic issues. In my view there are many good reasons for a change even if the recession had not happened. It is up the the Tories to articulate them.
@Wolf Macneil – I would agree with your last post. Are we seeing a series of minor Tory slip ups that will soon be forgotten, or is this part of a serial pattern of poor strategic thinking? Readers here will know that I have long held that Cameron has a real weakness in strategy and I have held the view for some time that he would have a short post GE honeymoon before the whole show starts to unravel. In polling terms, I feel the twin dangers for him now will be the rising economic confidence figures and increasing mistrust of his policies. It seems pretty clear that the first is now happening, and the last crop of polls does suggest this might be helping Brown’s popularity recover somewhat. It’s too early to tell if the second is happening yet, although skimming through the media he is taking a bit of a pasting from left and right this week. I thought Mandelson’s ‘Laurel and Hardy’ line was potentially very cutting. Labour are getting sharper and if there are many more Tory slip ups they will have a chance to make this image stick in people’s minds.
@Mike
“I find it odd how Labour can claim credit (and be given it by a substaintial minority of people) for getting the UK out of recession but blame the “global environment” for entering the recession.”
————————————————-
I think Labour get a bit of a free pass on the country going into recession because people don’t believe the Conservatives would have done anything different had they been in power. I also think that although it hasn’t had a massive difference in people’s opinions of Labour, most people when pushed would say that policies such as quantative easing etc were the right way to get us out, which the Conservatives for the most part opposed.
However, I don’t think this is something that will have a big bearing on the election which I believe will be decided in the South-East marginals.
I am sure that Labour will win the election. I wish I could put money on it. Anybody fancy a wager?
Labour will win the election with 7 seat overall majority.
Given that people seem to think it’s time for a change & they’re fed up of Brown & Labour, but they’re unconvinced by Cameron & the Tories, I find it baffling that the LibDems are static.
@THEGREATGONZO
I agree that people probably don’t believe Cameron would have done anything different from Brown in the years building up to the economic crisis.
If people don’t believe that Conservative policies would have been any different to Labour ones, why do most Labour supporters hate the Tories so much?
Personally I believe that the Conservatives would probably have spent less on public services, and taxed less, than Labour in the decade before the credit crisis. That is after all what the other parties have been saying ABOUT the Conservatives during that time. The question is really whether those policies would have left the UK better or worse prepared for the credit crisis. I certainly don’t see any evidence that the Tories were any more perceptive about the problems of the asset bubble than the government, or that their solutions would have been any different, but that doesn’t mean that the economic climate would have been exactly the same under their stewardship.
Ben
I’m not yet convinced that Lab have broken through a ceiling of 30, and that it isn’t MoE. Maybe they will in the few weeks ahead, but don’t count on it.
Wolf Macneil
“And on what grounds were the LibDems, plus Kenneth Clarke and a handful of other Tories, so sure that it wasn’t?”
I don’t know about KC but the LibDems have their own briefing on military matters.
Benm
“(Don’t necessarily think Labour deserves a fourth term, I’m more of an ABT – Anyone But Tories!)”
Surely not yet another Scottish Poster?
Alec:
“Maybe the ‘clunking fist’ will have the day after all?”
Could it be that that is the “Strong Leader” the C2’s admire?
Derek Pierson:
“Given that people seem to think it’s time for a change & they’re fed up of Brown & Labour, but they’re unconvinced by Cameron & the Tories, I find it baffling that the LibDems are static.”
I’m baffled too, and in rural Scotland they are in competition with the SNP who have a higher impact because they are in power in the SP. People on these pages are saying Lab and Con aren’t doing well, but neither are the LibDems and FPTP will shaft the SNP and Scottish Conservatives.
Is it only the Greens (if they win a seat) that are going to be pleased with the result?
Looks like an ICM poll is on its way as they have just called me. First time I have ever partaken in a political poll.
Neil A, I know it’s off-topic, but in a civilised tone, I suspect you’re right about the hypothetical Tory public tax & spending policies.
However,
Hypothetically, I suspect the level of debt would have been around the same, pre-crisis. There was no Tory call for the level of debt to be reduced at the time (that I can find)
So, as you say, lower spending would have meant lower taxes, rather than lower borrowing requirements.
So the response to the banking disaster could have included increased borrowing, but also increased taxation in those areas where they would have been decreased earlier. The tax system would have had more wriggle-room.
We would be having the same arguments as now on the level and timing of the debt-reduction plan though.
Andrew – does the fact that you’re in the next ICM figures give it more credibility, or less?