BPIX in the Mail on Sunday have CON 39%(-2), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 18%(+1). The rest of their poll asked about Tony Blair and the Chilcot inquiry, it is the usual negative response: 70% of people think the war in Iraq was illegal, and 80% say they did not believe that Blair did not lie over a Iraq (a rather twisted way of asking it, a straight forward do you think Tony Blair lied or did not lie would give a better answer, and in terms of WMD, shows a much smaller percentage of people thinking Blair knowingly misled people on the issue).

Meanwhile the YouGov poll in the People doesn’t seem to be online – so we’ll have to wait for the tables on YouGov’s website to see what other questions were asked.


35 Responses to “BPIX questions on Blair”

  1. Again a poll shows a very similar picture. 4 polls over one weekend show a Tory lead between 7 & 9 points, which means either these are all wrong or Angus Reid is. 4 polls looks like a trend to me. Labour hasn’t exactly wowed anyone of late, and there has if anything been some negative publicity for the Party, but still the Tories are having some trouble obtaining the sort of lead which they need for a working (or maybe any) majority. From my own personal point of view it’s pleasant to note that NBeale’s prediction about the next poll hasn’t turned out to be correct. :)

  2. Maybe Angus Reid is the first poll to ever get it right and not overstate Labour? Either that or they’re way out!

  3. Heading towards 39-31-20 territory. Getting close to my election prediction of 37-33-22!!

  4. @Benm

    “Heading towards 39-31-20 territory. Getting close to my election prediction of 37-33-22!!”

    Dream on…!!!

  5. @joshua. I agree with you re Angus Reid, As they have no axe to grind, the style of questions asked brings (in my estimation) a truer reply and the samples are generally larger. I would also point out that two of the polls were from YouGov.

  6. If I were Gordon Brown I wouldn’t be overpleased at Claire Short’s interview with the BBC today.

  7. Labour certainly hasn’t wowed anyone recently (one way or the other) so perhaps some of those who took fright recently have started to drift from the tories back to their normal home.

    People go from a party to another for various reasons; some sensible some less so. But the job of the other parties is to make them stay once they have moved. In other words tories haven’t exactly wowed anyone either recently in this phony war stage of the election. But the trouble is to do that you have to put policies up and as soon as you do that you will offend some potential voters.

    Much as I loathe Bliar he was very clever in only putting up policies which appealed to the the swinging voters knowing the old Labour would stick with him. The Tories and LD will also need to look at this group. (Parties like SNP do not need to do this.)

  8. Testing

  9. So… Can we finally put “the conservatives can’t go below 40” to rest now?

  10. @Jay,

    On the strength of a couple of polls putting them on 39 or 38? No.

  11. JAY

    Who said they couldn’t?

    Clearly they can & have.

    If they start to do it with regularity they have a problem.

  12. The swingback is there and its continuing. I’m not convinced that its really Labour actions driving it – the change is that people are looking hard at the Tories and it worries them.

    For all the swagger and the “its all Labour’s fault” that is spewed out by CamerOsborne, it must have been difficult to go to Davos and be told by the head of the IMF, by the collected economists and by other governments that your economic policies are utterly wrong and would throw Britain back into a deep recession.

    [partisan stuff snipped – AW]

    I don’t expect the gap to close up completely, but it doesn’t need to. the Tories need a majority to govern. No Coalition is possible with a LibDem party poles apart on almost every issue. And for a minority Tory administration to get their Finance Bill through they’d have to water the slash and burn bits down which would enrage their own side – as it already is doing.

    Anyone confident the Tories will get a comfortable majority? Thought not.

  13. Hi Ian

    Yes I’m confident and havingh spent all yesterday canvassing in a Labour northern marginal, I am even more confident. I don’t know where the support for Labour is being found in these polls, but swing voters I spoke to yesterday where all headed in a Tory direction.

    [snipped- play the ball, not the man – AW]

  14. Well actually Ian, there are plenty of peeps on this site who are still confident or even certain of a Tory majority. And a lot of ordinary voters too. And I’m Labour.

  15. @JayBlanc

    So… Can we finally put “the conservatives can’t go below 40? to rest now?

    ———————

    As all the reliable pollsters currently put them below 40, I think that would be a fair assumption to make.

    No amount of spin can change that fact.

    But, of course, it is not to say that they will remain below 40 or fail to climb comfortable above it.

  16. Just to correct my own mistake in that last post.

    Not ALL of the reliable pollsters currently have the Conservatives below 40.

    It’s about a 50/50 split.

    Some do. Others still have them pegged at 40.

    I guess only time will tell whether or not they really are slipping below that figure.

  17. Ian Bailey,

    “Anyone confident the Tories will get a comfortable majority? Thought not.”

    Thought wrong then.

    I am still on line for Cameron with a majority of fifty, which given what that will mean for labour between lost seats and a lot of talent (okay experience rather than talent) stepping down will be comfortable.

    One of the reasons that Brown is still leading Labour is that their isn’t a credible challenger with either the ideas or the backbone to challenge him.

    I don’t like the Tories but this is a UK FPTP election where it will primarily be about Labour V Tory and Cameron v Brown.

    The mood in the UK is that it is time for change and their is no enthusiasm for Brown anywhere, or at least where it is needed.

    Cameron’s altered his message in the last day or two to downplay immediate sharp public spending cuts because that is what has spooked people.

    It’s an odd thing about electoral politics but everyone knows that there needs to be cuts and deep ones, but the party that is promising to delay them most rises in the polls because people will vote to delay the inevitable even if they don’t really like or even believe the party that is offering it.

    It’s one of the reasons I prefer PR, because you can have more plurality of views and you don’t get a system where two parties compete for votes on the basis of the most palatable lie.

    In May it will be a new government v and continuation of a tired one, a new leader that people can relate too or the old one that they can’t.

    People won’t vote on policy they will vote on emotion. Not what they rational think will happen but on what they hope will happen. If Labour have had a rally it isn’t so much that they believe the Tories will make deep cuts and Labour won’t but rather wishful thinking that that might happen.

    Its not so much the electorate rationally weighing up the options as suspension of belief.

    I commented on this a while back, but this is about emotional intelligence, the way in which we approach things with a mix of logical and emotional attachment and the importance between them.

    There is an interesting piece of US research that suggests that the single most effective way to assess life long achievement is “The Marshmallow Test”.

    You sit a three or four year old down and put a marshmallow in front of him and say;

    ” You can eat that now, but if you wait five minutes while I go and do something else I’ll give you and extra one”.

    Children who can wait, who can overcome the desire to eat it right away, go on to do better socially and economically than people from exactly the same backgrounds.

    they will wait for things, they will study to get better grades they will compromise and cooperate with others…. and they are a minority.

    Most kids eat the marshmallow before the guy comes back and when they grow up they often vote for the party that tells the best lie about low taxes and high public spending because they don’t want to face the facts that it isn’t true.

    The problem for Brown and Labour is that the evidence that they can do it isn’t there and that they aren’t convincing and are no longer trusted. Where as people were willing to trust New Labour with Blair now they aren’t and that is as much an emotional response asa rational one.

    Brown isn’t liked or trusted and that will be Labours downfall. Cameron is a much more believable personality and as he’s new he’ll get the benefit of the doubt because people want to believe him.

    Thats why I am sticking to a fifty Tory majority.

    Peter.

  18. I guess we can see why Cameron has been sniffing around the Irish Unionists

  19. I wonder how the latest Tory U-turn will play.

    They have just pretty much ditched their one big policy – massive cuts straight away. You’d think that would probably benefit them in the long term because it wasn’t a very popular policy, and they probably dropped it after being spooked by recent polls.

    However, you have to wonder whether they will be able to retain any credibility after back-tracking on this. They have spent the last year and a bit telling anyone who’d listen how we need big cuts and we need them right away. Now they’ve once again come to the conclusion Labour arrived at long ago. It makes you wonder whether George Osborn is not dangerously out of his depth.

  20. Basically the fact the tories are 7-9% ahead is a shocking indictment of their failure to convince the British people that they are a credible alternative to Labour. People don’t want savage cuts, and a return to bodies lying on hospital trollies. Are the Tories really in touch with a more liberal multi-cultural Britain? – I doubt it (as evinced by the faithful at a typical Tory party conference – the hang-em little englander’s brigade :))

    As for Labour, the weak economy and more importantly the Chilcott enquiry will continue to unravel in a way that is very unfavourable to them (and deserverdly so). Do you really want a bunch of war criminals to run the country?

    I hope the Liberal Democrats and the SNP do well – they seem to be the only parties that can be trusted – and they were right on Iraq!

  21. Muzza

    Fair comment, but you also have to take the “plague on all your houses” effect into account following the MPs’ expenses issue, where even the LD were not whiter than white. I only recall the SNP publishing all their Legg letters.

    Overall that must impact Lab worst simply because there were more of their snouts available to feast on the trough, but it could unsettle “core” votes for all through reduced turnout.

    The LDs still have to live down their referendum U-turn which is perhaps more relevant to their English supporters who have no “mainstream” options if they are pro-democracy.

  22. I can’t say I’m fond of Blair and I certainly didn’t support the Iraq war but the witch-hunt like scapegoating of him is quite scary, particularly as it has aspects that make me think of a lot of puny, cowardly vicious people running out to kick the fallen hero now that it seems safe and even trendy to do so. I suppose Labourites have conveniently forgotten that they failed to oust him and even voted him back into office in 2005 when he was still promising to serve a full third term. As for all those MPs who voted to go to war and now disgracefully refuse any responsibility – puke.

  23. WMA 39:30:19 but rather to my surprise there is still no statistically significant trend on a 1- or 2-month view. There are 96 days to the election and over the last 96 days there is a moderately convincing downtrend (R2=.55). I even looked at what happens if you put a 3pt correction on the AReid figures and still nothing significant on a 1- or 2-month view.

    I still think there’ll be a 30-100 seat CMajority. The campaign will go badly for Labour becasue Brown is hopeless and they are totally demoralised. Even Labour supporters realise that (a) the best they can hope for is a hung parliament and (b) a hung parliament would be a disaster for the UK.

  24. NBeale

    “a hung parliament would be a disaster for the UK”

    Why, and what is it about unionist Brits that makes them think their compatriots would behave like Italians if we had fair voting?

    All the other member states of the EEA have less unfair voting systems than the UK parliament yet only the Italians seem to be troubled by it.

  25. Sticking by my prediction here. Peter Cairns raises many valid points in his posting above. A Conservative majority is indeed very possible, however, as I’ve said already, I dont believe it will be anything even close to what Cameron aspires to gain.

    I am a former (and I stress former) Labour supporter and can state in all honesty that the Conservatives will gain power largely as a result of the electorate being generally dissatisfied with the performance of Brown, the shortcommings in his premiership and the current state of dissarray in Labour. The Conservatives have not produced anything whatsoever to woo the electorate- people just want a change.

    People simply do not believe in or trust Gordon Brown anymore- several recent polls have given ample justification to support this point. Regarding Ian Bailey’s point, I can appreciate the direction you are comming from however I’d cite your comments as being over-optomistic.

    I must say however, if Brown had stood down after the “tussle” within the party back in ’08 and David Milliband took to the floor, I recon both parties would be on even pegs, poiisbly even a re-run of the ’92 scenareo only this time with Labour. Too late for that now, a small majority Conservative gov’t or a hung parliment with the Tories going cap in hand to the Ulster Unionists, SNP etc in attempts to obtain their majority.

  26. @ Paul Smith

    “I guess we can see why Cameron has been sniffing around the Irish Unionists”

    For about the same reason that the SDLP has taken the Labour whip for years, and the Alliance party of NI has had an informal pact with the LibDems?

  27. @ JAKOB
    “They have just pretty much ditched their one big policy – massive cuts straight away”

    Really?-is that so?

    Could you point me to a statement by Cameron & Osborne that cuts in 2010 would be “massive”

    Could you please tell me where & when either of them has said that they will no longer commence reducing Public Expenditure from 2010.

    Thanks

  28. @ GEORGE GARDNER

    “People simply do not believe in or trust Gordon Brown anymore- several recent polls have given ample justification to support this point.”

    Brown’s popularity is improving & Cameron’s is in decline. Cameron is still ahead 45 -> 35 but it’s a big change in Brown’s favour.

  29. Peter:

    Interesting post.

    Would SNP prefer a Labour, or Conservative majority at Westminster?

  30. It seems to me that Cameron’s interest in Unionist politics is mostly to do with trying to prevent the unionist vote being split three ways and landing us with a dozen Sinn Fein MPs. Some of you may be relaxed about that prospect but it makes me feel slightly ill.

    As, effectively, the leader of one of the main Ulster parties (which in itself is a cultural adjustment for Westminster politicians) it is a legitimate concern for Cameron and thus perfectly reasonable for him to discuss with the UUP and DUP leaderships.

    I don’t suppose the possibility of being supported by DUP MPs in government was ignored, but I really don’t think its the main point of the discussions.

  31. Neil A
    “the unionist vote being split three ways and landing us with a dozen Sinn Fein MPs”

    Surely that would merely serve the UK unionists right for persisting with a patently unfair voting system that has previously worked to their own advantage.

    Hasn’t the clamour for presidential leadership debates proved that the old idea of a knight of the shires “representing” his constituents’ interests is finally dead?

  32. @PETER CAIRNS
    I cannot tell you how much I appreciate an honest bloke who is no friend of the Conservative Party telling the truth based on the facts before him. How very different to the straw clutching nonsense based on a couple of slightly less worse polls that will probably turn next week anyway.
    If I were a Scot I would probably vote for you.

  33. Roland,

    You don’t need to be a Scot, you just have to move North…..

    Fresh air, beautiful scenery, nice people…… You know it makes sense.

    Peter.

  34. I find some of the reasons various posters put forward for this stupendous advance for Labour really very funny. Someone mentioned Davos. Most people polled probably think Davos is a kebab man. Camerons poster, I mean who cares? I hav’nt met a soul who has seen one. Osbourne and Dave have had a spat, far more serious than attempts to get rid of a PM.
    If there is any meat in this thing, it is probably the vain hope that 0.1% is putting all our money troubles behind us. If only that were so.

  35. ” Most people polled probably think Davos is a kebab man.”

    I thought that he was either the creator of the Daleks or Kojak’s side kick…..

    Peter.