A third new poll today, this one from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph. YouGov show a further narrowing of the Conservative lead, with topline figures of CON 38%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 19%(+1).

Unlike MORI’s poll the changes are well within the margin of error, but it’s a further whittling away of the Tory lead. This is the smallest Conservative lead from YouGov since the Labour conference (and one needs to go all the way back to December 2008 to find a smaller one).

The Telegraph’s own report of the poll isn’t up yet (this is from Reuters), but hopefully we will get the normal YouGov/Telegraph trackers and will be able to see exactly what affect the end of the recession had on economic confidence, and whether that might have contributed to the narrowing polling lead.

UPDATE: Here are some of those economic figures I was waiting for. YouGov’s economic optimism figure is up to minus 10 from minus 13 a month ago, so up since December but not actually by very much. There was a more significant rise in the proportion of people who thought the government’s measures to tackle the recession had begun to work – up to 22% from 15% a month ago.

105 Responses to “YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points”

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  1. Seal Pup

    It’s funny how when some people see poll results they dont like, they blame them on flawed methodology, unfair reporting, media bias etc etc.

    Currently the Tory lead is heading South.
    get over it.
    Valerie :-)

  2. Cllr Peter

    I think the fall in the projected Tory seat count is certainly due in part to previous Labour voters returning to the fold from the Lib/Green embrace.

    What evidence do I have for my view of peoples’ response to Tory policies?
    Well I have a theory to explain the correlation between the Tories revealing policy details and their lead in the polls going down.

    As people read the small print they decide tory cuts will affect them more adversely than Labour’s plans.
    Do you have evidence to the contrary?
    Valerie :-)

  3. Valerie,

    “As people read the small print they decide tory cuts will affect them more adversely than Labour’s plans. Do you have evidence to the contrary?”

    I don’t think it works like that.

    I have a theory and no evidence, but I will stick with it until someone else disproves it. Where for me the “theory” breaks down is that we no little or nothing about either tory or labour plans.

    It could be argued that people were hoping that all there problems were Labours fault and that a new government would make them go away and they are now realising that it won’t be that easy.

    If the Tories are failing to make headway because they are dampening unreal expectations that doesn’t make it better for Labour because Browns line on cuts is even less credible than Cameron’s.

    If anything as Browns “Labour investment v Tory cuts” line collapsed under ridicule and Cameron “Talked Tough” on the deficit gained traction the Tories stopped being the easy option people had hoped.

    either way it will still come down to Tory v Labour, Cameron v Brown, New v Old and “Time for Change” v “Nows Not the Time”…… and in that fight the Tories will win and it will be by about fifty.


  4. I might be wrong, but the LDs tend generally to be criticising the Tories more than Labour.

    Maybe they see their best realistic chance at power being a strengthening in the Liberal, Left and Labour vote, leaving the Right/Tories as high and dry as possible. So, they go soft on Labour and concentrate on attacking the Tories. If you can’t beat the Tories, beat them down.

  5. Peter
    “Brown’s line on cuts is even less credible than Camerons.”

    Well that is your opinion- not everyone shares it.

    Valerie :-)

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