ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is due out later tonight, around about 6pm according to Mike Smithson. I’ll be on a train about then, so those of you fortunate enough not to be commuting are free to discuss it here. ICM’s last poll was immediately after the Hoon-Hewitt “attempted coup” broke, and had figures of CON 40%, LAB 30% and LDEM 18%.

I’m sure someone will put the new figures up in the comments once they surface, and I’ll put up a proper post later on.

UPDATE: While you are waiting though, there’s an ICM poll for Channel 4 News already (tables here).

ICM asked what people thought was responsible for the economy’s recovery, assuming that tomorrow shows the country out of recession. Only 20% of people attributed it to the government, with a further 14% saying the Bank of England. 13% put it down to the private sector and 21% thought it was down to international recovery (worldwide factors 17%, the USA 3% or the EU 1%). 32% didn’t know.

Asked if Britain coming out of recession would make people more or less likely to vote Labour, there was very little difference – 12% said it would make them more likely, but 10% said less likely, so little net gain. I should add my normal caveat about “more or less likely to vote X” being not much use, especially when they are not broken by voting intention so we can’t see if those “more likely” people are already voting Labour anyway, or those “less likely” people are not.

And for methodology watchers, this was an online ICM poll (and for that reason, it’s very unlikely it was done as part of the ICM/Guardian poll).


27 Responses to “ICM poll due tonight (plus ICM end of recession poll)”

  1. Gary Gibbon’s blog on Channel 4 News’s website has a link to the details of an ICM poll – not sure if it’s the same one as the Guardian one. Voting intentions are not included (if it is the same poll).

  2. I think the Americans call it “Ground Hog Day”. What are the bets on Old Nat turning this thread towards the vagaries of Scottish Politics by the 10th post.

    As I have said, people have made up their minds. It is only political geeks like us who like to stare into the entrails of PMQs and air-brushed posters and get all a flutter.

  3. I think the Americans call it “Ground Hog Day”. What is the betting that Old Nat will push this thread towards the vagaries of Scottish Politics by the 10th post. It is only political geeks like us who study the entrails of PMQs and airbrushed posters.

  4. Sorry it collapsed and I thought I would have to do it again

  5. I must agree with you Glenn. It’s going to be pretty much 40-30-20 give or take a couple in any direction. But it is more fun this way isn’t it!

  6. 40/29/21 ICM Guardian ?

  7. The regional breakdowns are interesting as although as Anthony says the numbers more likely to vote Labour are within the margins (2%) it looks like Labour get the biggest boost in areas they are unlikely to loose but actually do worse where they need to hold seats.

    Fine if you support the core vote strategy, bad news if you are chasing middle England. Any bets on a Feb election now.

    Peter.

  8. @LIN REES
    Lin you either got there before me or your guess is spot on in which case congratulations. 40 C 29L 21LD it is

  9. Sounds like a more realistic level of LibDem support than we’ve been seeing for a while. I presume Others are well down?

  10. Can’t see the logic in economic recovery making people less likely to vote Labour. I think we can probably put those 10% down as hard-line Labour-haters, who would say it’d make them less likely to vote Labour whatever ‘it’ might be.

    Doesn’t seem like the polls have changd greatly. 40% is about standard for the Tories, and 29% is not unusual for Labour. It’s not going to make us leap for joy, but it’s well within the MoE and not something you can build very much of an argument upon.

    This poll will make Clegg happy, but I’m not convinced that you can put it down to any concrete activity on his part. And if it’s not down to active support for him, it’s very squeezableon the doorsteps in marginal constituencies.

    Interesting things in the other questions, although obviously we’ll need to check the cross-tabs. I’m surprised that a majority of respondents describe themselves as working class, since a) they vote less and b) nobody’s really appealed to them since 1997 – they only get mentioned in the context of stagnation and racism. This suggests there might be room for some re-tooling of the message from all parties.

    The tax break stuff looks ugly, but I do wonder how much of a priority people give it. Labour could negate if by polling day if they establish a narrative that a) it won’t be much of a tax break and b) there are better things to spend money on.

    On the other hand, the high numbers saying it’s time for a change and those willing to blame Gordon personally for the recession augur very badly. The added presidentialism we get at each successive election is really going to hit Labour hard.

  11. Its up on the guardian website now:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/25/icm-poll-conservatives-widen-lead

    Couple of points of interest from my quick scan through the article:

    Seems to confirm that Labour are massively losing the middle class vote (compared to 1997, 2001 etc) and Labour are now seen as the party of the working class. Maybe the core vote strategy is working in this respect (or not depending on your point of view!)

    The article mentions one academic study that says that this would lead to a one seat majority. Anyone (maybe AW) know anything about this. When I plug the numbers into the electoral swingometer it gives me a Conservative majority of 8.

    just one aside: I like the way that the Guardian acknowledge polls from the same polling company for other newspapers (twice!). It really annoys me when papers ignore all other polls for other newspapers (I’m looking at you Daily Telegraph)

  12. Still around 40/30/20/10. Posters and marriage clearly don’t tickle the elctorate’s fancy. Time to move the campaign on a notch.

    The LibDems +3 will be thiking that Iraz still has some purchase though.

  13. testing testing google chrome – IE8 does not think ukpollingreport.co.uk is good for me!

  14. “, 65% think a cut for couples with children is a good idea, against 29% who oppose one.

    Among married couples, backing rises to 78%. Among definite Labour supporters, it is 70% – remarkably one point higher than among Tories”

    Attacking marriage seems to have been a bad idea.

    Investment vs Cuts
    Tory Toffs
    Marriage

    What next in the grand plan?

  15. Glenn Otto

    If you hadn’t double posted and then apologised, this would still be the 11th post!

    However, Peter got a post in – even if he was talking about Middle England! :-)

  16. The 3 polls from 6-7 January will be removed from the UKPR polling average in the next couple of days. It’ll be interesting to see if the average Tory lead increases slightly when that happens. Looking at the latest polls I think it may change slightly in their favour.

  17. Well.

    There we have it.

    Just as Shopkeeper says.

    Everything indicates 40/30/20/10

    (Personally I suspect it is more like 40/30/19/11. But I shant quibble).

    Will anything move opinion over the next month?

  18. David in France asks: “Will anything move opinion over the next month?”

    No idea whether the apparent end of the recession will move the polls, but at least it is serious politics. Posters is flim flam.

    Still undecided on google chrome, I’ll vote for any party that proposes browsing without errors.

  19. Just checking the CAPTCHA because I spent 10 minutes typing a tome only to find it rejected!!

  20. Just wait for the Polls after TB & GB have given evidence at the Iraq Inquiry.
    One of the most disasterous decisions this country has ever made with thanks to TB, GB and of course a certain Mr Bush!
    It wouldn’t surprise me if Labours poll ratings went down to the mid 20s again simply because of Iraq although not too sure as to which party would benefit the most yet!!

  21. I have to object a bit to your wording Anthony in saying “Only 20% of people attributed it to the government.”

    That’s still the leading option of those who picked something, and to some extent it’s diluted by people who are going to be confused as to what decisions were made by the Bank of England and what decisions were made by the government. And of course, the Government does provide the Bank of England with a certain amount of direction. Combined, they’d be 34% of the poll.

  22. @Andy Stidwell

    WMA will remain 40/29/19 when the 3 early Jan polls drop out, assuming no other polls come along.

    The ICM poll would give a Con majority of 8 on UNS, due to a better Lib Dem performance which makes life harder for the Conservatives in the south.

  23. Edward Carlsson Browne

    “Can’t see the logic in economic recovery making people less likely to vote Labour. I think we can probably put those 10% down as hard-line Labour-haters, who would say it’d make them less likely to vote Labour whatever ‘it’ might be.”

    It could be people who think it is more of a risk to change the government to inexperienced politicians in bad times. If the economy does recover slightly it will be less of a risk in their view.

  24. @DAVID IN FRANCE……….the Iraq inquiry could cause the strategists at Labour HQ a few headaches when Gordon’s role is put under the microscope, a few issues here I suspect. The end of the recession won’t affect the majority yet, since real unemployment is still rising and the public sector is already taking a hit, job losses in the pipeline will appear to contradict the good news. Inflation = strikes, could be another problem, Ireland? Events dear boy, events.

  25. Thanks Statto.

  26. Pete B, thats how I would explain that figure.

  27. I think the working class self-identification is a bit of a red herring. It’s hard for people of working class origin like myself to accept that they’ve become middle class and many such people still think of themselves as working class when we clearly aren’t any more. I doubt if that self-image can translate into Labour votes if the real life issues are no longer working class.