There are a small number of Labour-Conservative marginals in Scotland – D&G, East Ren, Edinburgh S, Edinburgh SW, and at a stretch Stirling. Don’t think Scotland is where the election will be won and lost though.

If the lower swing needed is 4% then the implied assumption is that seats with a majority of less than 8% are going to be Conservative anyway. Which is it?

I don’t know of any evidence but its not to far fetched to suggest that if the Tory vote does rise it will be more likely in areas where they have a chance of winning and where they think they can scalp a big fish ( Thats a bit of a mixed metaphor, like clipping a dogs wings…..)

Theres an interesting breakdown here;

http://www.scottishaffairs.org/onlinepub/sa/denver_sa53_aut05.html

What is worth noting is that the biggest Tory rise was in the South of Scotland (+6.9%) coincided with a big SNP drop (-7.3%). Given that he SNP are currently up I wonder where any new Tory votes their would come from.

Things might be better in Edinburgh where Murphy and Darling are targets because the LibDems made the big gains in 2005 (+8.9%) with everyone else down. With the Libdem vote halved across Scotland we could see a Tory surprise.

I think PB’s article on decapitation suggested a disproportionate number of Tory Poster sites in Murphy and Darlings sites. The Tories no their limits in Scotland so it would make sense for them to pretty much concentrate their limited firepower on Edinburgh…

Having said that and given the Tories all that advise and credence… I still hate them.

Peter.

“our vote is now so concentrated in 20 seats that the rise in the polls from 15.6% to the 18-22% range equates to an extra 70,000 to 130,000 votes piling up in the Target seats”

I’ve seen you make that claim several times. What evidence do you have that your support is rising in your target seats, while presumably falling elsewhere?