ITV Wales have a new poll of Welsh voting intentions by YouGov. Topline voting intentions, with changes from YouGov’s previous Welsh poll in November are CON 32%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(-1), Plaid Cymru 13%(-1).

This represents a swing of 9.15% from the general election, so represents a slightly bigger swing than YouGov’s polls are showing in the country as a whole. If repeated at a general election then on a uniform swing it would result in the Conservatives winning 12 seats (up 9 from now), Labour 20 (down 9), the Liberal Democrats 2 (down 2) and Plaid Cymru 5 (up 2).

YouGov also asked how people would vote in a referendum on extra law making powers for the Welsh assembly. 49% would vote yes, 32% no.


79 Responses to “Latest Welsh voting intentions”

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  1. HardpressedTqy & Roland,

    If I may add to OldNat’s post, the lack of Tory electoral success in Scotland has more to do with regional distribution of Tory support under FPTP and, most importantly, the hitherto vibrant LD performance compared to their decline in Wales.

    It is no coincidence that Con / LD are often in the running for the same seats in both Scotland and Wales.

    It is probably also true to say that the SNP have been more effective than Plaid.

    Finally, tactical voting (typically anti-Tory) has been well-established in Scotland for years, but only really happened in Wales in 1997 and 2001.

    The combination of these factors probably accounts for at least 5-10% difference in support for Cons as between Wales and Scotland.

    JamesS,

    Despite holding 4/5 seats, Lab has never been as dominant in Edinburgh as they are in Glasgow. In 2005 they managed 40% (just) in only one Edinburgh seat (East) while in Glasgow they fell below 40% (just) in only one (North) but which they still held by more than 10%.

    At the Euros last year Lab not only fell behind SNP in Edinburgh, they were also 3rd behind Cons and only just ahead of LDs. Moreover, they fell to third in every seat in Edinburgh except East. Compare that to Glasgow which was one of only two Scottish Councils where Lab topped the poll (the other was Fife – which contains Kirkcaldy – though that was by the narrowest of margins).

    If Lab manage to hold more than 2 Edinburgh seats at the next GE they will be pleased. If they fail to take all 7 Glasgow seats, they will be disappointed.

    Therein the point OldNat was making about the “heartland” singular.

    Paul

  2. Does anyone know when the next poll is due out?

  3. Don’t-Tell-Em-Pike,

    I thought there were several Welsh “Princes of Wales” before Bad Ted 1 pee’d them off by making his son Bad Ted 2 the first ‘English’ Prince of Wales.

    Plus of course the redoubtable Owain Glyndwyr, who made himself briefly Prince of Wales by force of arms in 1400. I’ll never forget THAT name, as the worst of the Welsh nationalists that used to hunt my fellow non-Welsh undergraduates on the streets of Bangor styled themselves “Meibion Glyndwyr” (sp?).

    Rolling forward a few hundred years again; is there any chance that Tory credibility may have finally begun to rise in Wales with the marriage of William Hague to the lovely Ffion – a girl as Welsh as spoons, leeks and goldmines.

  4. It is predicted that even though the economy grew by 0.3% last quarter we still have had a 4.8 % drop which is the worst year of recession since 1921 and worse than any year of the great depression

  5. @Neil A

    Sadly I doubt the swing to the Tories has anything to do with the lovely Ffion.

    Off topic…What has spoons got to do with Wales ?

  6. Bryan Coombe

    Hand carved Welsh love spoons are somewhat famous.

  7. If the people here ran elections they’d be great fun, after someone mentioning a Labour tactic of Galtiere invading again on another thread, now I’m hearing Labour will bring out the tractor production figures in the dying weeks of the campaign? Better than a boring manifesto that’s for sure.

  8. OLDNAT

    Thank you I never knew that. You learn something everyday.

    Although now I ask how can they be love spoons, what has a spoon got to do with love. Answer quickly before Anthony tells us this has nothing to do with polls (-;

  9. Bryan Coombe

    “The love spoon was given to a young woman by her suitor. It was important for the girl’s father to see that the young man was capable of providing for the family and woodworking.” Wiki

    Medieval polls suggested that 90% of fathers preferred them (oldnat added hurriedly)

  10. OLDNAT

    Fantastic.

    I took my father in law down the pub, not a spoon in sight !

  11. @ Bryan

    Surely you’ve heard of ‘spooning’?

    Sorry!

  12. Bryan Coombe

    Just before Anthony bans us all –

    How did they get the olives out of the jar?

  13. @RichardW

    No I hadn’t heard of spooning, having just googled it though………..sounds nice.

    Do you think DC and GB will ever indulge.

  14. OLDNAT

    A strange question.

    Olives out of the jar…..well you never had any up north too cold.

    The Romans never had jars they had “amphorae” redicullous receptacles.
    The greeks of course had not “amphorae”…….bugger I know not the answer

  15. Bryan Coombe

    Surely you don’t have martinis without an olive! And I thought our Southern neighbours were sophisticated!

    (OK Anthony, I’ll stop now :-) )

  16. Private Eye runs a feature called, ‘ Me and My Spoon’, a series of spoof interviews with high profile people, the most recent being Sir John Chilcot.
    Might this throw some more light onto the debate in polling terms?

  17. OLDNAT

    Sophisticated my bum.

    However how would the majority of NATs react to the very real prospect of “more power to scots” but less seats. because I think thats where we head to.

    And without being too partisan thats where I think we should be moving to.

  18. Bryan Coombe

    You may not have noticed, but the policies of the SNP, Scottish Greens, SSP are to have no seats at Westminster!

    Back to polling – Scots had no problem with a reduction in the number of MPs in 2005. Increased powers to the Scottish Parliament would likely result in a further reduction. No problem there either, I wouldn’t think.

    I’ve posted here before that Scots don’t want their MPs voting on English matters.

  19. @ Roland Haines

    WRT to being conquered – they weren’t.

    Hence the Welsh Flag and nothing on the Union Jack representing Wales.

  20. Lots of incomers in Edinburgh; & it seems a very wealthy place – loads of bankers, lawyers & service professionals. Labour’s support has held up surprisingly well so far.

  21. PAUL B

    “It is predicted that even though the economy grew by 0.3% last quarter we still have had a 4.8 % drop which is the worst year of recession since 1921 and worse than any year of the great depression”

    No hunger marches yet so I don’t expect this comparison will have a major impact on the polls.

  22. “Lots of incomers in Edinburgh; & it seems a very wealthy place – loads of bankers…..”

    I’d suggest that Edinburgh has much to thank Labour and Gordon Brown/Alastair Darling for over that last 18 months, moreso than anywhere else.

  23. Amber Star

    It’s a combination of a number of things. Becoming a real capital city again, the growth of what was always a large financial sector, the movement of business to the East Coast – nearer to European markets. etc

    However, you can’t really transfer the demographics associated with voting Tory (or any other party) from England to Scotland – if only because our class structure tends to be significantly flatter. No one here, for example, would use a term like “upper middle class”. We simply don’t have that level of social divisiveness.

  24. @Neil
    Lots of kingdoms hence lots of princes also. Glad to hear you were at Bangor Uni also!!

    Number7
    Not sure what WRT means but if you are suggesting that the reason that Wales are not included in the union Flag is because they were never defeated you are mistaken. Wales is not included as Ted 1 only recognised it as a principality (easier than trying to recognise lots of small kingdoms) and 500 years later in the 1700’s that was never changed so when the union flag came into exsistance it only recognised the countries of the UK.
    As a proud englishman stuck living in north wales up to 10 years ago I had to learn my history to shut them in the pub!

  25. John Rentoul reporting a ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Indy. He’ll post details tonight.

  26. @PIKE

    Isn’t it more the case that the Tudor Act of Union (1536?) annexed Wales into becoming part of England. At that time there were not only the remnants of the native kingdoms, but also English lordships, which because part of their boundaries fell on the Welsh side of the border were not governed by English law. The counties that made up the former kingdoms conquered in the C13 were the King’s personal fief, but Henry was prepared to give this up in order to gain control over the marcher lords.

    So Wales was an annexation, whereas both the unions with Ireland and Scotland were see as mergers of two kingdoms which happened to be ruled by the same person.

  27. Number7,

    The English flag is unchanged since mediaeval times, but Wales is acknowledged within the Royal Standard.

    The first Union flag was simple merger of the cross of St George (England) with the cross of St Andrew (Scotland). This represented the union of two equal kingdoms under a single crown.

    The complete Union Jack which we have today – incorporating the red diagonal cross of St Patrick (Ireland) came later. Since Ulster uses the cross of St George as its base, one could argue that the UK should have reverted to the original Union flag when Eire became independant, but by then the full Union Jack was a globally recognised symbol of the British Empire.

  28. I’ve taken the regional North Wales data from this latest YouGov Wales poll to analyse and predict the Ynys Mon (Anglesey) result. Take a look here:

    http://druidsrevenge.blogspot.com/2010/01/some-electoral-arithmetic-for-ynys-mon.html

  29. Oldnat

    I was joking yesterday of course, but it isn’t so daft to ant the Scottish Parliament (rather than the English Parliament in control of foreign policy and defence (Iraq, Trident) but not want independence.

    We know that about four out of five don’t want independence (for whatever reason) and three out of four Scots oppose the war, including a majority of the Scottish Parliament so depending on how the question is worded and interpreted, and provided the questions are answered independently of each other, there must be a considerable overlap between those who are against both the war, and independence.

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