If Labour do hang on, it won’t be by much and surely can’t be more than the Scottish contribution to the majority over Conservatives. That will be 31-33 in my reckoning.

If England gets a Labour government again, you know who to blame.

“Here the polls suggest that the Tories are not seen as likely to be a good government for Scotland – even by 20% of those who will vote Tory for the Scottish Parliament!”

That’s a measure of tactical voting, not a measure of right-leaning voters view of the appropriateness for Scotland of UK Conservative’s policies. A similar proportion of SNP voters for the Scottish parliament see the SNP as irrelevant at Westminster and are bored by the independence debate.

Conservatives are a wasted vote in all but a few constituencies. Under Ms Goldie’s leadership, they have garnered their list potential, though the long term trend is very marginal decline.

“Middle Class Lefties” or if you prefer the rational and tactical negative FPTP voter who is anti-Con, may well form the largest political grouping in Scotland, exceeding the total of committed core voters for all the parties together.

You overlook the posibility that, where there is no risk of electing a Conservative, they may choose to vote against a Labour incumbent. This is how the SNP stands to win the FPTP jackpot, not in 2010, but after a short hung parliament. An ignorant and insensitive Conservative government and an impoverished and self-destructive Labour party is all you need.

The dilemma in some constituencies, such as Argyll, is that you even if you were unimpressed with the LibDem incumbent, voting for the third placed SNP risks letting in the Conservative.

On the other hand, we know that LibDems are losing votes and the SNP are gaining, so not going with the flow might also have the outcome that you most want to avoid.

In that particular case there isn’t a big risk, because if the % loss of the poll the LibDem currently has is at the lower end of what is possible, the Conservative would need to take an improbable proportion of them for the seat to change hands. The greater the % loss of the LibDem share of the vote, the smaller proportionate split in favour of the SNP that is necessary for the SNP to win.

That’s why I don’t dare to predict the winner, but I’m sure the Conservative will be in second place. Labour can’t be squeezed any more and have nothing to lose.

“non-aligned”

I am non-aligned in the sense I don’t have a single preference in a positive sense.

But I guess, likewise in reverse, I *am* aligned in the sense of a utter revulsion for one specific party.

@Davey

When I did the uniform swing calculation just now (transposing 1992 for 2010) it should have said *18* rather than 36- which underscores the potential slender thread of victory for whoever next year even more I think.