There is a new ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Indy. The full poll is embargoed until 10 o’clock, but the Indy’s Political Editor Andrew Grice has already blogged that the Conservative lead is down to 9 points. I’ll put up a full post at 10.


22 Responses to “New ComRes poll shows 9 point lead”

  1. Interesting. That’s quite low for a ComRes poll. One thing’s for certain – they can’t all be right!

  2. Be interesting to see what all the people cooing over the last 24 hours regarding the weekend polls have to say !

  3. Be interesting to see the tables as we have seen some odd things with the samples in the last few polls. In the end the December polls have been to far all over the place to ascertain anything useful from in terms of trends.

  4. ComRes poll of 1 December had a 10 point lead
    ComRes poll of 11 December had a 17 point lead

    Now back to 9 point lead.

    Is this variability in polls common in December? Or is something else going on?

  5. I don’t think it’s strange that individual polls are moving around a bit. The trend is still clear – a Tory lead of about 12-13 points.

  6. Oldnat – I’ve never taken the time to do a proper analysis to see if they are, but I’ve always been a bit wary of them. After all, you will get a lot more people out shopping, out partying, visting relatives and so on, so the potential is there for samples to be affected.

    So, can’t give you a proper answer, but maybe. We’ve only got a fortnight to wait for January polls anyway and not even I am going to spend my Christmas worrying about which polls are right ;)

  7. Anthony

    :-)

    There had better not be any Scottish polls till February – we still have Hogmanay and the Burns Supper season to get through!

  8. The polls are not as volatile as they seem. Excluding Angus Reid (Labour always low and outside the margin of error of the others) all but one of the December polls has been within MoF of 40/29/19.

  9. So will Brown now call off the TV debate?

  10. Statto

    Interesting.

    You’ve been following the polls longer than me (I think). Is it common for a pollster like ComRes to have variant leads of 10%, 17%, and 9% in successive weeks? That’s what caught my eye.

  11. Glad there is to be a tv debate.
    Brown will shine & have Cameron all of a dither
    Bring it on

  12. @Old Nat

    I’m no expert in opinion poling, just a keen enthusiast, and too old (I hope). But the odd spurious result from any sampling is to be expected.

    Comres with 24% for Labour always looked like an outlier to me. It was given credibility by Angus Reid’s scores for Labour, but in my view, Angus Reid follows its own wee normal distribution with Labour about 4-5% lower than everyone else.

  13. ‘John’

    A three-way TV debate is actually a real potential threat to Cameron as by the time it happens Clegg will know (if he does not already) that he has to concentrate his fire mainly at the Tories- both in terms of the electoral map and also in terms of the key issue. That is of course the ‘economy stoopid’ where LD’s are much closer to Lab on need to phase in cuts as opposed to economically extreme crash-bang-wallop austerity medicine of Camerborne which many leading economists proclaim will acquire the UK a ‘double-dip’ in fast measure.

    A Brown Vs Cameron match up held much less danger for Cameron but he rather idiotically boxed himself in by demanding one in the immediate aftermath of being elected leader when Tories were behind or in a tiny lead (if I recall “cowardly labour” blah blah blah ad nauseam).

    I’d also like to see a Darling Vs Osborne Vs Cable debate as well…one can only imagine there being a single catastrophic loser in that debate…!

  14. @Old Nat

    That should read *not* too old.

  15. Statto

    I’m always keen to learn from you young folk though. :-)

  16. I’m sceptical about there being any TV debate. I suspect that both Brown & Cameron have just been posturing, knowing all along that the SNP will go to the courts to stop any debate before it happens.

  17. Cynosarges

    I’d be surprised- given (a) there will be debates in Scotland; (b) these are national UK debates between Cameron Clegg and Brown; (c) The SNP are a Scotland Only party not a national UK party; – if the Supreme Court does not throw this SNP petition (if it comes) forthwith with little real determination. It do not hold intellectual water.

    I think the three leaders know this and are serious about a debate: the dynamic of the times and this election is driving us inexorably towards the series of debates officially announced today by the three TV networks.

  18. Rob Sheffield

    Any case would be heard in the Court of Session. There are only limited circumstances under which appeals from Scotland’s Supreme Court to the UK one can be made without the permission of the Court of Session.

    It is highly unlikely that the Court of Session wouls demean itself by ceding authority to the UK Court.

  19. OldNat

    Wrong- check up again on the legal system of the UK which- despite regional differences and peculiarities- is a National UK system.

    Any civil decision by the CoS in Scotland can be appealed to the *UK* Supreme Court. i.e. “The UK Supreme Court sits above all of these as the final court of appeal”.

    From the Court of Session (for civil cases), permission to appeal is not required and *any* case can proceed to the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom if two Advocates certify that an appeal is suitable – er, that does not sound too daunting to me.

    Only certain severe *criminal* cases are held within the Scottish regional jurisdiction. That is not relevant here unless you define the SNP’s attempt to worm their way into a National debate criminal: which you may well do !!

    The UK Supreme Court are hardly likely to demean themselves by ruling in favour of a regional party trying to muscle in on a National debate- ditto the single issue parties with no chance of forming a government/ PM

  20. Rob Sheffield:

    It’s a far more complex issue than you imagine. Are they proposing to avoid debating issues which, in Scotland, are devolved or will they discuss UK issues only? GB is standing for election in a Scottish constituency. How does that affect the issue?

    As I see it they problems could be resolved by a three way debate in England and a four way one in Scotland and Wales, but Labour won’t like that and would rather blame the Nats for the debates not being broadcast.

  21. “So will Brown now call off the TV debate?”

    I think Cameron will be the one wanting it cancelled to be truthful.

    A lot has changed in the last 6 months. And there are a lot of dividing lines between the parties, that I really doubt he wants to give any more public airing.

    It’s a nice platform for Brown to hit him on the “immediate cuts” and things like that.

    Plus you have to take into account that Cameron has been pretty awful in the last few PMQs. It could well be the case that any advantage he thought he had in one to ones has dissapeared.

    Then you also have to take into account that it’s a 3 way debate. And Cameron could well be set upon by both Clegg and Brown on many subjects.

    The Libs and Labour policies on certain things are very similar. Notably the economy.

  22. Chris,

    You will no doubt be pleased to read that I am about to agree with you. Your final two paras are both correct.

    I am sure that Cameron has long been aware of the risk of Clegg and Brown ganging up on him in a 3-way debate. But why should he be afraid of that ?

    For Clegg to make it clear to the electorate that LD policies are closer to Brown than Cameron is a Win-Win situation for the Conservatives.

    Former Conservatives who have voted LD in recent elections, or those who had switched to Lab and were now considering moving to LD instead, may be more easily persuaded of the need to vote Conservative rather than LD, while soft Con supporters may become firmer in their intention. This increases the Con vote, especially in Con-LD marginals.

    Disillusioned Lab supporters who would never vote Con may feel more comfortable voting LD instead of Lab. This will reduce the Lab vote in Lab-Con marginals, or better still those considered “safe”, and so increase the number of seats won by Con from Lab.. It may also increase the number of LD gains from Lab in seats which Cons could not expect to win.

    I am fairly confident the debates will happen. The Nats will be bought off with separate 4-way debates in Scotland and Wales in addition – though the Uk parties may well opt to send along their respective Scottish / Welsh leaders instead. Afterall, Alex Salmond can’t complain that Goldie, Scott and Gray are not standing for Westminster since nor is he !