Comments on: After much speculation, MORI show a 17 point Tory lead

By: GIN

GIN — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:40:46 +0000

Yosemite Sam, I can’t understand what Bob W is getting at either. If high turnout only favours Labour how does that explain Boris Johnson becoming Mayor of London? Labour actually increased in number of votes in 2008 compared to 2000 and 2004. Trouble was the Tories increased theirs more. Wht can the general election not follow a similar pattern?

By: Stuart

Stuart — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:24:40 +0000

perhaps the low showing for labour also reflects the news that Gordon Brown stopped Alistair Darling giving a more severe PBR, which indicates he is putting his party before the country.

By: David - in Oxford

David - in Oxford — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 11:16:29 +0000

Having looked at the Pippa Norris data over the weekend, it seems that in the 2005 election, in the 31 seats won from Lab, plus the next 120 on the target list, the average swing was just under 4% (compared to 3.25% for all England). That translates into an uplift of 23% in the marginals over the average. The latest polls suggests a swing of around 9.9% in England only. If 2005 was repeated, this could translate into a swing of over 12% in some of the English marginals where GB and his cronies are particularly disliked. Anthony, your swingometer which covers the first 200 seats does not go that high! Cameron will be very happy at the moment. Excellent website.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:31:12 +0000

Not sure what to make of this. MORI seem to be all over the place. I think YouGov is most in line.
All in all it’s very good news for the Conservatives. If they guard against complacency, they are heading for a very comfortable win next year.

By: Cogload

Cogload — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 17:23:37 +0000

It may do, bur the fieldwork for this is a week old and there have benn somewhat different numbers since then….