After an amusing mountain of speculation, including vast amounts of twittering about the Conservative lead being down to 3 points according to “reliable sources”, Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll has finally turned up in the Observer. The topline figures are CON 43%(+6), LAB 26%(-5), LDEM 20%(+2).

The shift from MORI’s previous poll, which showed a Tory lead of only 6 points, is extreme. However, that poll was largely the result of a sample that had an unusually high proportion of 2005 Labour voters, so I expect this is largely a reversion to a more normal sample. I’ll have a proper dig around when the full tables turn up.


60 Responses to “After much speculation, MORI show a 17 point Tory lead”

1 2
  1. Maybe certain people should stop giving AR so much grief from now on…

    Can’t see an early election happening with figures like this.

  2. That’s going to play havoc with Jay Blanc’s Magic Oracle.

  3. Ha Ha Ha. My Goodness. Well that’s a turn up for the books. I didn’t see that one coming after all that talk about MORI being a little more Labour friendly.

    This’ll depress Labour HQ before Christmas. They must have been hoping MORI would show something like a 3pt lead for Cons so they could fire up the troops, with the possibility of pulling it back, before the new year.

    Kick in the teeth for Labour’s plan for a recovery. HAa.

  4. The Polls have become a comedy show.

    Very very funny!

  5. All the Conservative rubbishing of Ipsos Mori in anticipation of a bad poll will now turn into saying they are the best thing since sliced bread .
    As Anthony says , let’s have a look at the full data tables . We will be able to tell whether unlike last month it was not a heavily pro Labour sample or perhaps even a pro Conservative one and what the figures are for those with 6-10 certainty to vote which IMHO I consider a more realistic measure than just those with just 10/10 certainty .

  6. In time for a Christmas laugh even though I would love that result! Think Cons lead is more around the 12% level and very steady.

  7. Thank heavvens for those two polls !!

  8. A tweet from Labour’s candidate in Skipton & Ripon 4 hours ago:

    http://twitter.com/CHazelgrove/status/6835444559

  9. Mike R . My sentiments.

    Ironically Mori in mid October had a 17% lead for the Tories which was then the same as AR. Since then they have dropped to a much lower Tory lead of 6% while AR have remained within a range of a 14-17% lead. Now Mori are back in line with a 17% lead although I recognise it is slightly dated.

    While I believe Labour had a small recovery initially at the time of the Pre Budget statement it seems its impact was short lived and was exaggerated by Mori but not by AR. I suspect we will increasingly take AR as the yardstick.

  10. LOL – well, well, well how about that then!
    Who on earth came up with the idea of a 3 point lead – thought it must have been wrong.
    Thats David camerons Christmas Present as I feel sure they will be the last Polls before Christmas Day!

    I wouldn’t mind betting some Labour supporters on this site got quite excited at the prospect of the Tory lead slipping to just 3%.

    Myself?—-You know I couldn’t possibly comment!!

  11. Surely this is a +3 for the Lib Dems since last month. Dropping in back of the others to 11%

  12. I said about the previous Yougov poll showing Labour on 31 and Lib Dems on 16 that the Lib Dem score was suspect and that we should subtract 3 from Labour’s and add that to the Lib Dem’s giving Lab 28 and Lib Dems 19. These two polls I think have justified my approach.

  13. Unlike Mike I take the view that this latest poll is one of the first to accurately reflect the public response to the Pre Budget statement. Unless there is a substantial, wide ranging and obvious taxation change, the effect of any budget, or PBS tends to take a while to be felt in the polling data.
    This lag time is of course exacerbated if the government goes out of its way to obfuscate its actual intentions. It is only when there as been sufficient space for people to glean from the media how they think the changes will personally effect them that any effect on voting intentions becomes readily apparent.

  14. Minor party shares in this poll:

    UKIP – 4%
    Green – 3%
    BNP – 2%
    Others – 2%

    So the combined Tory and UKIP share is 47% compared to 46% for Lab and LD.

  15. No News of these on the BBC or Sky Website. Funny that. They were quick to publicise the single digit Poll last week. Plus The Observer have not even got any mention of the 17 point lead on their Front page. A load of rubbish about Copenhagen instead

  16. Well, at least we finally have a Tory share that’s not exactly 40%. That was starting to creep me out a little bit..

    I still think something slightly odd is going on somewhere. The Labour share is so volatile its hard to know which polls are the outliers. The narrative is certainly good for the Tories though. People will probably see the last few weeks as a bit of a death rattle by Labour, whether that’s fair or not. As I’ve said before, praise/criticism generally follows the polls rather than leading them.

  17. Pencilled in figures in the model… (waiting for the full publication so I have the polling dates and can verify them before updating my site)

    And yes, it does change the result back to ‘slim conservative majority’ as this shifts the downward trend up a notch. Now the long term 100 poll trend points to a lead of 13, while the short term 20 poll trend points to a lead of 5. This is within the range of +/-4% error. Splitting the difference would put it just below the 10% lead estimate, but we’ll assume for now this shows a reduction of the downward momentum as well. As always, this could change.

    However, none of this diminishes my opinion about the AR poll, which I will still be excluding from my model.

  18. Its important to remember that its not unusual for a score to be out by 3 points. And particularly when the polls appear to volatile it good to examine the big picture. So I hope this will be helpful:

    Polls dating from the 23rd of October showed for Yougov
    Con 40,41, 41,41,39,40,40,40; average 40.25
    Lab 27,28,27,27,29,27,31,28; average 28
    Lib Dems 19,16,17,18,19,18,16,18; average 17.5

  19. Polls dating from the 25th October showed for Comres
    Con 40,39,37,41; average 39.25
    Lab 27,25,27,24; average 25.75
    Lib Dems 18,17,20,21; average 19

  20. Polls dating from the 29th of October for ICM
    Con 42,42,40,40; average 41
    Lab 25,29,29,31; average 28.75
    Lib Dems 21,19,19,18; average 19.25

  21. Polls dating from the 5th Nov for Angus Reid
    Con 38,39,40,40; average 39.25
    Lab 24,22,23,24; average 23.25
    Lib Dems 20,21,19,20; average 20

  22. Further comments from looking at my graph…

    This does show either a small uptick or a correction in the Conservative vote, but it does not show a correspondence in the Labour or Liberal Democrat votes going down… They’re still following an upward trend.

    So what’s happened that could have benefited the Conservative Vote, but not damaged the Labour or Liberal Democrat vote?

  23. At last accurate polls are back
    Labour will be smashed in May/June
    The hatred towards them is widespread
    Not sure the reason for the recent rogue polls

  24. Well those that wished to rubbish AR ought to have red faces. They won’t of course preffering to believe what they wish rather than the facts.

  25. From the 8th of Nov for Populus/Mori

    Con 39,38,37,43; average 39.25
    Lab 29,30,26,31; average 29
    Lib Dems 18,20,17,20; average 18.75

  26. Haha, what a poll! I think certain posters here may owe AR an apology – I’m not saying they’re completely accurate, but it’s ludicrous to claim that they’re somehow incredibly unreliable compared to other polling companies.

    Anyways, I’m personally glad to see the pattern of wildly varying polls continuing, it’s going to make for a far more interesting campaign!

  27. FINALLY AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the average score of the 5 average scores is Con 39.8 Lab 27.8 Lib Dems 18.9. And this I think is highly likely to be very close to the actual position.

    This leaves the others on 13.3

  28. Thanks for the averages Philip JW.

    Populus and ICM are the only polls showing Labour in a non-disastrous position on about 30-31%. If they also put Labour down in the mid-20s soon there could be some panic at Labour HQ.

  29. This means that this particular poll probably is overestimating the Cons position by 3 points and the Lib Dems by one point, and underestimating Labour’s position by 2 points.

  30. Possible good news on turnout in the MORI poll: 37% said the result of the next election would be “very important” and 32% said it would be “fairly important” which hopefully indicates a turnout of roughly something like 69% compared to 61% in 2005.

  31. Before someone else points it out. I should have calculated the others as 13.5 and not 13.3. Brain getting very tired now. Must not writing and let someone else have a turn, need sleep.

  32. Just got in from a Christmas party – I have enjoyed copious alcohol and for a moment I thought that the Tories were 17 points ahead.

    Surely tomorrow I will wake up and realise that it was all an alcohol-induced hallucination and the 3 point rumour was true.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

  33. Well this was out by just over 4 points (both against the WMA and on the retrospectives) but not as bad as their -6 point howler last time. The updated WMA is 40:27:19.

    Slightly more interesting, it lends weight to the idea that the downtrend in the CLead has stopped. The R2 on the 140-day trend is now down to .51 and indeed the 1-month trend in the CLead is if anything slightly up.

    The CLead has been 14.2+/-1.6 over the last 140 days and there is no very convincing evidence that it will break out of this pattern. Once the spike in the CLead to 18% at the end of May comes out of the series the trend will look even weaker.

    Also as noted before, morale in Labour is very low and as we get nearer the election this is likely to deteriorate further, and have a marked effect.

  34. time to emigrate – we will be moving to Scotland in the next few years – if that does not work then it will be Belgium

  35. As others have stated don’t underestimate the simple dislike of Brown that is prevelent in vast parts of England. The 1% NI hike to pay for the social security budget has played very very badly with many private sector workers who see labour as betraying them and atte
    print to shore up thier core vote at the expense of the country.

    This is not unexpected and I will put money in with anyone that labour will lose the nex election

  36. “FINALLY AND MOST IMPORTANTLY the average score of the 5 average scores is Con 39.8 Lab 27.8 Lib Dems 18.9. And this I think is highly likely to be very close to the actual position.”

    Feels about right given the last You Gov and MORI. It still puts AR out on a limb.

    Lesson from all the rumours – never believe anything you hear on a betting website!

  37. Bob Worcester on pb has a very interesting analysis.

    In a nutshell it was the PBR wot done it.

    ” The impact of the PBR moved the economic optimism in the country from last month’s 46% believing the economy was going to improve in the next 12 months falling precipitously to 32%. At the same time, the satisfaction level of Gordon Brown fell another 10 points, to just 28% and the government also by 10 points, to 21%.”

    That seems a logical reaction to me.

  38. It’s the sample , stupid !

    The only quirk I have with the MORI poll, is the dive in economic optimism. I do not believe that this taking place amidst all available anecdotal evidence. Even house prices are creeping up ! The Englishman’s castle is now more valuable than last year. Again !

    6% to 17% in one month ? MORI’s system may be superior to others, they would say. But both months cannot be correct. Remember someone else picked up a 10% lead at around the same time. And YG puts C ahead 12% after another 3/4 days !

    Even, I am beginning to have faith in ARS. Well. not that much !

  39. there will be many very very unhappy government officials in the isle of mann,jersey and switzerland,who ,if the polls kept on narrowing, would have expected thousands of productive souls to leave britain.

    hard cheese to them.

  40. Ever since the Norwich North by election Labour supporters-you know who you are-have periodically greeted each and every tiny improvement in the polls as”proof’ that the tide has turned in their favour. As an exercise in futile wishful thinking it is hard to beat.

    Surely it must be obvious to anyone with half a brain that until optimism in the economy improves then Labour’s chances remain in the doldrums., There are but four months left in which to achieve a miraculous turnaround and apart from possibly Alex I don’t know anyone who thinks that will happen. It is not game over until that fat lady sings but its close.

  41. Philip’s figures very interesting. It looks to me as though the main difference between AR and the other polls is that they have lower figures for Labour but higher for ‘Others’. Could this be a result of the use of the word ‘support’ in their polling question?

    This in turn suggests that some people who support Others may actually vote Labour in order to keep out the Tories. My guess would be that these might be mainly Greens who probably won’t stand everywhere, but who tend to be left wing.

    I believe that this Mori poll is the delayed one that is about a week old? It is interesting that some posters were preparing to rubbish it on grounds of being out of date when the rumour was for a 3% Tory lead, but nothing has been said now that the lead has been shown to be 17%.

    As an aside on the PBR. I always think it is a bit of a con when they talk about NI going up by 1%. It will go up from (I think) 11% to 12%, which is actually a rise of 1/11, which is about 9%.

  42. From Bob Worcester’s comments on the Political Betting site the implication appears to be that the 17% Tory lead relates to a 50% turnout. A turnout of 60% – similar to 2001 and 2005 – would generate a result of Con 40 – Lab 30 LibDem 20.This would be pretty close to what we have seen from YouGov , ICM and Populus.

  43. The only place I can think that the 3pt lead rumour came from was a post on political betting “What if MORI also has a sample like this”, about the heavily labour ICM sample, that if MORI methodology was applied to the raw data from that poll it would produce a Con 37 Lab 34 3pt lead.

    I’ve never seen any information that there might be a real poll with these figures. This statement seems to have got conflated with the knowledge there was a MORI poll waiting to be released, in the minds of the more delusionally optimistic labourites.

  44. @Colin -“Bob Worcester on pb has a very interesting analysis.

    In a nutshell it was the PBR wot done it.

    ” The impact of the PBR moved the economic optimism in the country from last month’s 46% believing the economy was going to improve in the next 12 months falling precipitously to 32%. ”

    I would disagree, and I think Bob W has got it wrong. The PBR has had in my view no impact on economic confidence – this began to slide the previous month, and while unemployment levels have been more positive there has been a general levelling off from a range of other economic indicators that are suggesting the recovery is currently weaker than anticipated. The PBR was nothing to do with this, and I doubt it has had anything like the effect seen in this poll.

    @Dan -“No News of these on the BBC or Sky Website. Funny that. They were quick to publicise the single digit Poll last week. Plus The Observer have not even got any mention of the 17 point lead on their Front page. A load of rubbish about Copenhagen instead”

    Oh those poor, poor Tories. The entire westerm media is out to get them and that nice Mr Cameron gets such a raw deal from those horrible communist TV executives and media barons….Get over it will you – it’s pointless and inaccuarate rubbish.

    @Jon Rosenburg – “Unlike Mike I take the view that this latest poll is one of the first to accurately reflect the public response to the Pre Budget statement”. It might be, but of course this one is days out of date. Surely YouGov’s 12% lead is a much more reasonable benchmark in terms of PBR timing and is much more current. Your comments also ignore the ICM 9% lead which was taken at around the same time as this one. We shouldn’t pick and choose which polls we think represent the effect of X or Y simply because we like their results better, unless there is a clear methodological issue with the pollster.

    While this poll is in line with AR and could be genuine, I would have thought MORI might be getting worried about the volatility of their results. The seem to be wildly swinging between polls and this, more than the actual individual results, might cause their methods to be questioned.

  45. @ PeteB – “I believe that this Mori poll is the delayed one that is about a week old? It is interesting that some posters were preparing to rubbish it on grounds of being out of date when the rumour was for a 3% Tory lead, but nothing has been said now that the lead has been shown to be 17%.”

    Maybe but it’s been rather an important week, with reaction to the PBR having had sufficient time to settle and with Brown busily not saving the world in Copenhagen. Also, it’s the fourth poll in a month to give a Tory lead of 17 points whereas a drop to 3 points was last heard over at least a year ago.

  46. Paul (brownout)

    So the only accurate polls are those that show a massive tory lead.

    That follows the Indiana Jones “everyones wrong but me” formula. And is destined to dissapoint.

    I’d say most polls will be top heavy for the tories, no matter what they are.

    Just because there is a lot of anger at a government. Whether that anger turns to a change of parties in the booth is another matter.

    Easy to tick a box in a poll. Harder when the tick has actual concequence.

    I’d take 3-4 points off of any tory lead in the polls when the election comes about. As that will more than likely reflect those that “bottle it” and just stick with what we have.

    Most commentators say that the tories will need at least a solid 15 point lead in polls to get a majority. Because of this factor

  47. Dan

    It took 5 polls to get the tory media to acknowledge that they had a drop.

    If you watch SKY News this morning, you can see that it’s only taken one, more than likely rogue, poll, to have the proclaiming that they will now have a 150 seat majority.

    The media is totally stacked in Camerons favour. The only people that aren’t on the tory party company books are probably the beeb

  48. Nick Keene

    That’s probably the opinion of Mail /Sun readers who believe every word these journalists tell them.

    You know, when a tory media is saying one thing, and their tory readership is agreeing, it’s sadly not representative of the other 30 million voters in the country. Most of whom don’t even read newspapers, let alone taking part in discussions on message boards.

    This site works on fact. Factors. What the tories have to do to win.

    For the tories to even win a majority, they will have to attract the highest popular vote in election history.

    For them to even win, they will have to force a 7% swing from Labour to Tory. As an example, in the last council/euro elections, they only forced a 5% swing.

    I assure you, regardless of the volatility of recent polls, the tories will have to run an excellent campaign to even get a majority.

    If you actually think the tories are going to come in and say get a 70 majority – you may well be dissapointed.

  49. “All the Conservative rubbishing of Ipsos Mori in anticipation of a bad poll will now turn into saying they are the best thing since sliced bread .”

    Take off the partisan blinkers for one second, most Tory commentators around the blogosphere are somewhat sceptical of MORI due to its volatile results.

  50. House prices are only due to lack of houses on the market retail sales were down in november

1 2