After an amusing mountain of speculation, including vast amounts of twittering about the Conservative lead being down to 3 points according to “reliable sources”, Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll has finally turned up in the Observer. The topline figures are CON 43%(+6), LAB 26%(-5), LDEM 20%(+2).

The shift from MORI’s previous poll, which showed a Tory lead of only 6 points, is extreme. However, that poll was largely the result of a sample that had an unusually high proportion of 2005 Labour voters, so I expect this is largely a reversion to a more normal sample. I’ll have a proper dig around when the full tables turn up.

60 Responses to “After much speculation, MORI show a 17 point Tory lead”

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  1. Mori poll – England only – unweighted base 860 respondents

    Con 46% : Lab 26% : LD 20% : Green 3% : UKIP 3% : BNP 2%

  2. A couple of weeks ago, I posed the rhetorical question: if the overall GE shares are:
    Con 40%
    Lab 30%
    Lib 20%
    surely there could not be a hung parliament?
    There was no response to that. Now I see that Bob W is saying that any majority for the Cons depends upon turnout. In effect, the higher the turnout the lower the chance of a Con overall majority. I must admit to being very puzzled by the maths of all this – surely UNS applies irrespective of turnout. Does it really mean that if (theoretically) there was a 100% turnout, with the shares given above, the Cons would lose hands down?
    Can someone help an old man please?

  3. @Phillipe
    I think you’ve just about fallen off the deep end there phillipe.

    The media certainly isn’t “Tory”. The Mail, Telegraph and Express are the only papers to have back the Conservatives consistently. The Sun has only recently gone Tory after 13 years of backing Labour. You may not like a lot of what they say, but to base that dislike on it being institutionally “tory” is ridiculous.

    The Times, the Economist, the financial times are all leaning in the Conservatives direction now, but they have not consistently before. None of the news media have a major bias one way or the other, if anything the BBC is biased towards “left-liberal ness” but not necessarily the Labour party.

    I think you’re confusing people being generally skeptical about what seems a tired, failed government at the end of its 13 year rope and being “tory”.

    Not to mention the fact that the Observer, Guardian, Independent, New Statesman are so reflexively anti-Tory (even when they’re not pro-labour) that it’s just laughable sometimes.

    And as far as polling facts go you’re way off there to. The general consensus from anthony, from political betting and electoral calculus is that a 10pt lead is what would guarantee cameron a majority. More likely considering tactical voting and other factors an 8pt lead would do the trick.

    Furthermore, if anything polls have a consistent history of under-estimating Conservative electoral performance, not over-estimating it. There’s no evidence whatsoever for your statement. Indeed, this is one of the main reasons why many informed commentators think only an 8pt opinion poll lead is required.

  4. Mori poll – Scotland & Wales – unweighted base 157 respondents

    SNP/Plaid 22% : Con 23% : Lab 29% : LD 16% : Green 4% : UKIP 4% : BNP 1%

    Not that it means much of course! :-)

  5. Well I woke up this morning with a robust hangover and thought I had imagined what I read last night about the 17 point lead!

    The result is spectacular and surely a 46%/26% split in England will result in an anhilation for Labour?

  6. It may do, bur the fieldwork for this is a week old and there have benn somewhat different numbers since then….

  7. Not sure what to make of this. MORI seem to be all over the place. I think YouGov is most in line.
    All in all it’s very good news for the Conservatives. If they guard against complacency, they are heading for a very comfortable win next year.

  8. Having looked at the Pippa Norris data over the weekend, it seems that in the 2005 election, in the 31 seats won from Lab, plus the next 120 on the target list, the average swing was just under 4% (compared to 3.25% for all England). That translates into an uplift of 23% in the marginals over the average. The latest polls suggests a swing of around 9.9% in England only. If 2005 was repeated, this could translate into a swing of over 12% in some of the English marginals where GB and his cronies are particularly disliked. Anthony, your swingometer which covers the first 200 seats does not go that high! Cameron will be very happy at the moment. Excellent website.

  9. perhaps the low showing for labour also reflects the news that Gordon Brown stopped Alistair Darling giving a more severe PBR, which indicates he is putting his party before the country.

  10. Yosemite Sam, I can’t understand what Bob W is getting at either. If high turnout only favours Labour how does that explain Boris Johnson becoming Mayor of London? Labour actually increased in number of votes in 2008 compared to 2000 and 2004. Trouble was the Tories increased theirs more. Wht can the general election not follow a similar pattern?

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