YouGov has Tory lead back to 12 points
19 Dec 2009
It’s very early, but we already have the figures for tomorrow’s YouGov/People poll, courtesy of their political editor Nigel Nelson’s twitter feed. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 18%(+2).
While it shows a drop for Labour, this poll is very much a reverse from YouGov’s last – the one straight after the Pre-Budget Report which rather oddly showed a negative reaction to the PBR, but Labour nevertheless gaining four points. This largely reverses that movement.
In tomorrow’s papers I’m also expecting MORI’s “latest” monthly poll, though it would actually have been conducted a week ago.
Filed under: Voting Intention, YouGov
IPSOS MORI
Conservatives – 43%
Labour – 26%
Lib Dems – 20%
The poll is below
The Observer poll put Conservatives on 43% (up six since a similar poll last month and the Tories’ highest rating in a mainstream survey since mid-October) against Labour’s 26% (down five) with the Liberal Democrats on 20% (up two
http://www.pressassociation.com/component/pafeeds/2009/12/19/polls_show_tories_extending_lead?camefrom=home
Damn your speedy fingers, Mark!
That means since mid October 8 polls have shown the Tories 17% ahead, This includes 3 from AR who are looking more creditable.
This poll is simply in line with Angus Reid.
Barnaby JL Marder asks
if Mark could actually name the “cronies” he blathers on about I will be extremely surprised & even maybe impressed.
I will supply Barnaby with one example of the cronies – one Andrew Marr.
The recent “interview” where Marr (Loretto public schoolboy) discussed with Alistair Darling (Loretto public scoolboy) their opinion of David Cameroon, and concluded that an Eton education made Cameron unfit to be Prime Minister, was an act of New Labour spin and hypocrisy of astounding crassness.
Still, I suppose it is possible that since Marr’s wife is the daughter of a peer, Marr considers his own public school days as ‘infra dig’ and unworthy of mention.
Anthony: If the “false recall” weights the Labour vote down, how come Angus Reid, which doesn’t do it, shows a much bigger C Lead?
Unless I have misunderstood, this would mean that the people who were weighted down (Others?) were less likely to vote C than past Labour voters.
NBeale -
There’s weighting to actual past vote, and weighting to past vote adjusted by false recall.
For quasi random polls at least, the result of either will be to increase Conservative support and reduce Labour support. False recall however increases the proportion of people who claim to have voted Labour, so a pollster weighting to past voted adjusted for false recall would reduce Labour less, and increase the Conservatives less.
The order of Labourness or Conservativeness would be –
MOST LABOUR
Sample without political weighting
Sample with political weighting, accounting for false recall
Sample with political weighting, not accounting for FR
MOST CONSERVATIVE
The minor parties will in my view continue to benefit from the expenses scandal and increasingly from disenchantment with the war in Afghanistan.
My first visit to this site and it was disappointing that there were not distinct options to “vote” BNP, UKIP or Green for example.