New Angus Reid poll

Political Betting have a new poll by Angus Reid. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1). Others are at 15%, down 3.

Overall there is no significant change from their previous poll. The Conservative lead is, needless to say, much greater than in most other recent polls, as the level of Labour support is lower. This is not a sign of some sudden Conservative recovery – Angus Reid have been showing the Tory lead up at this level all along – it’s just to do with different methodology.

Specifically Angus Reid assume no false recall when weighting their samples to recalled 2005 vote, which means their samples have fewer people who claim to have voted Labour in 2005 than phone pollsters do. For some reason they also tend to show a higher level of support for others – I’ve no clear explanation for that, it could be their question (they ask who people would “support”, not how they would vote) or it could be something entirely different.

Still to come this year we should have a YouGov poll for the Telegraph, which normally comes out the last Friday of the month (though it’s probably safe to assume it will be a different day this year!), a ComRes poll for the Indy, and Ipsos MORI’s monthly monitor, which was apparently conducted last weekend but has yet to be released into the wild. I expect, as was the case last month, that one of the Sunday papers is going to print it.

124 Responses to “New Angus Reid poll”

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  1. MARK R
    You are not alone.

  2. Let’s return to facts…

    Here are the solid facts about the AR polling,

    1) AR has no track history in UK general election voting intention.
    2) The AR Poll has been consistently outside of the trend of other polling by a large margin, and does not respond in the same way to events.
    3) The AR Poll is an Internet Panel poll, not a phone or face to face poll.
    4) The AR Poll asks which party is supported, not which party will be voted for.

    Everything else is speculation.

    Now, if taken individually, those can be discounted… But they are warning flags that *something* is wrong here. And this many warning flags on a poll can’t be ignored.

    Now, we can say “Well, AR are doing it right, and every other poll taker is doing it wrong”. But that means that we should be dumping everyone else… Or we can assume AR is wrong, until proven otherwise.

    Come election day I will be ready to eat Humble Pie if the figures are where they are in this AR poll. But I have such high doubts about that happening, that I don’t think their polling should be taken at all seriously.

  3. Barry P.

    Yes the suggested YouGov result supports AR in showing that the Tory lead has only softened a little during the Quarter. A lot of blogs have now picked up the People poll result for example Iain Dale.

  4. @Anthony Wells

    I’d also like to ask why you’re giving AR a 0.7 weighting after this discussion.

    Even if I were to accept inclusion of AR in poll aggregation, that’s a very high weighting for a poll that’s producing off-trend figures and asks a significantly different question than the other polling. It’s actually the highest weighted poll in your average at the moment.

  5. @ Mike

    I happen to believe that those figures are about right and seem to support the average of all the major polls over recent weeks.

    Cons 40% Labour 28% Lib Dems 18%

    So Labour not gaining so much ground at the expense of the Tories but more from the Lib Dems and undecided voters, I would suggest.

  6. @ Sean Fear I think you are right there is no way the Liberals will join with “the best offer” in a hung Parliment they would join with the largest party. If they joined with Labour with the Tories the largest party, there would be an election within months, with both Liberal and Labour being absolutely hammered.

  7. @ Glen Otto

    Agree with your comments.

    I am quite sure that Mr Clegg has already made a statement to the effect that if the LD’s support anyone it would HAVE to be the largest party. Quite rightly he sees the LD’s suffering badly for proping up an unpopular Tory opposition, or in more realistic terms a busted flush Labour party.

  9. @ Glenn – yes, and Nick Clegg has unequivocally said exactly that. He made quite a strong statement as to how it would be undemocratic to side with the runner-up party to keep the party with the biggest mandate out of power.

  10. There’s an (as yet unsubstantiated) rumour that MORI will put Labour 3% behind the Conservatives.

  11. @James Ludlow

    He’s also said that he’d only partner with a party that would commit to Proportional Representation. And that he’d make no changes to the support of Europe. Both of which would cause a party revolt in a Con/Lib coalition.

    Conservative Minority Government is more likely than a forced Con/Lib marriage.

  12. @ Sean

    Love to know where that poll was conducted. Sedgefield possibly? will be interesting to see if that is correct.

  13. @ Jay Blanc – got a source for that? My guess is that his comments regarding siding with the biggest party are more recent. Also harder to wriggle out of, given that he’s presented that position as the only ethical option in the (still remote looking) event of a hung parliament.

  14. Well im still thinking a Tory majorty of 20 – 40.

    Although I’ve never voted tory in my life, Im hoping for a stronger pound.

  15. Is it possible that some of the volatility in the Labour vote is caused by variations in recalled past vote. For instance when Labour are doing particularly badly people maybe embarrassed to admit that they voted for them last time whereas when they’re doing comparitively better people maybe more likely to “remember” voting for them. This would also explain why Angus Reid seems much less volatle.

    Does any of that makes sense? I can’t quite work out whether that should increase or decrease the volatility of the Labour vote.

  16. Paddy Power bookmakers have the odds for seats at the GE
    Cons to win 400-451 seats even money
    Labour to win 150-201 seats even money
    The odds for a Con win of more than 50 seats is 1-2 on ill be have a punt on this seems to be easy money Paddy Power is very accurate in its odds.But they may be wrong doubt it though.

  17. @ Jay – thanks. As I thought, that was an earlier “commitment”. He’s got himself in a bit of a bind :)

  18. David in France

    You write “Facts are facts.

    Angus Reids polling appears skewed.

    Here are the reasons for my saying that:

    Fact 1: Only 5 of the last 23 polls have the Conservatives more than +14.

    Fact 2: 4 of those 5 are Angus Reid. At +17.”

    David it’s about time you got the Facts correct.

    For your Fact 2 to be correct at the time you wrote it then based on Anthony’s table:-

    Fact 1 was: 8 of the last 26 polls have the Conservatives more than +14 (includes 2 ICM, 1 ComRes & 1 Ipsos-Mori)

    It would be helpful if you did not use inaccurate and misleading statistics when trying to make your arguments in future.

  19. @James Ludlow

    No bind at all… Saying you would only go into coalition with the largest party, but that you would not go into coalition unless they commit to AV+ and Europe, are not mutually exclusive.

    If the Conservatives don’t get a functional majority, and refuse to accept those concessions, then the Liberal Democrats won’t go into coalition with them.

    And it’d cause a party revolt for the Conservatives if they accepted the Liberal Democrat conditions. And it’s cause a party revolt for the Liberal Democrats should they u-turn on their AV+ and Europe demands.

    As I said, minority government is more likely than forced Con/Lib marriage. The Liberal Democrats simply won’t tolerate the right wing of the Conservative’s, and the right wing of the Conservatives can’t tolerate the Liberal Democrats. Even if they tried to create a coalition, I couldn’t see it surviving.

  20. Sean Fear

    1->5% Nationalist : English/British? I had thought of that possibility, and it’s certainly a possibility when you look at the “others” figures. 5->2%. It may well be that increasing numbers of English people are seeing themselves as English Nationalists – obviously I have no problem with that.

    If the Brits (probably in England – “Nationalist” has specific connotations in Scotland and Wales) are increasingly seeing themselves as “nationalists” then that would be interesting. They are the 5th nation in the UK – and the one that will lose completely if any of the other nationalisms win.

  21. Thanks mike,i didn’t Know that, even so if you ask people who they would vote for in their seat both you and they would need to know who was standing.which we don’t in most seats and the voters certainly dont.If asked I’d say i was voting say ukip but i dont know if they’re standing.How valid is my voting intention in an opinion poll?

  22. Don’t the bookies say the worst polls for Labour are the most accurate?
    This company are now proving to be the most accurate and consistent as the others fall back into line after a few rogues

  23. Well, this is all very interesting, but I would point out to you all and to UK Polling, that a 4th force is in this election UK Independence Party and we intend to shake things up a lot. The Torys will be in for a shock and we draw support from Labour and the Lib-Dem vote also.
    What the established parties fail to to understand all of their core support is disillusioned with the way they are behaving and what has been done covertly. You get the answers you get in polling because you ask the wrong questions.
    Ask the right question and you might be surprised on the answer you get.
    Watch this space…!

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