ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is out. The topline figures, with changes from ICM’s previous poll at the beginning of the month, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-1). Others are on 11%.

After conflicting polls from YouGov and ComRes over the weekend this one is very much in line with YouGov. Like their Sunday Times poll it shows the Conservative vote steady, but Labour gaining support at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and others. This is the lowest lead in an ICM poll since December last year, and on a uniform swing would leave the Conservatives narrowly short of an overall majority.

As with other polling, ICM didn’t find any particular enthusiasm for the PBR. While once again the tax on bankers budgets was found to very popular, overall the PBR was viewed less positively. Only 12% of people thought it would make things better, compared to 19% who thought it would make things worse. Cameron & Osborne retained a lead on who would do a better job managing the economy, 38% to 31%, but this down from 18 points two months ago.

109 Responses to “ICM too show the lead narrowing”

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  1. John TT,

    Cameron may well have, but as long as he has the likes of Iain Dale going on about Climate change being a left wing conspiracy Labour will have plenty of ammo for;

    “Behind Dave’s smile they haven’t really changed”

    I am sure Labour will push that hard in an election.


  2. It is interesting john.

    I think it’s of a piece with the “bottom up” vs ” top down” theme.

    In this case Energy Efficient Local Housing schemes vs Global Conferences & empty rhetoric.

    I think that has appeal.

  3. Cllr – I can’t see Iain Dale as damaging Cameron – he’s not officially in the tent yet anyway, though if/when he gets selected, I’m sure he’ll be toeing the line.

    i agree that some of the more established deniers could drive a wedge, especially if pressure mounts from narrowing poll leads.

    Cameron’s line of attack here is interesting too, criticising the posturing of world leaders, and advocating localised action instead – Power to the People if you will! Is it credible?

  4. empty rhetoric???? bit provocative there (yet again)

  5. Don’t you read the news john???

  6. I try to avoid the most partisan papers, apart from to laugh at them parrotting their chosen party’s line.

  7. Ronald Haines

    Why should people of recent immigrant origin be voting Labour? Many of them won’t be registered, and unless they have relatives whom they wish to bring here, they are hardly likely to bennefit from more immigration.

    The many who are shopkeepers or other small businessmen may be drawn to the Conservatives.

    Most people can be categorised in several ways which posters here assume would determine their vote, but often in conflicting ways.

    What party do I vote for?

    Private (Boys only) School
    Chartered Accountant
    Rent AND Mortgage!
    3 Employers private sector, also NHS, and now retired
    Grandchildren at state school
    Never learned to drive. No TV.
    Unitarian atheist

  8. Testing, testing

  9. “I try to avoid the most partisan papers, apart from to laugh at them parrotting their chosen party’s line.”

    Me too john.

    Re Copenhagen , I try to follow the science & the logic-and all strands of opinion.

    Even that has been corrupted these days.

    Everyone has a “line” of some sort.


    By “Empty rhetoric” I meant things like politicians & countries falling out over whether humans should “control” temperature rises within +1.5%…or+2% .

    Talk about hubris!

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