The full tables for YouGov’s Sunday Times poll are now available here. While the poll shows a solid four point increase in Labour’s support, at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and others, the questions on the PBR doesn’t show it going down particularly well.

Only the new tax on bankers’ bonuses was met with widescale support (79% of respondents supported it), the public were evenly split on measures like freezing public sector wages and inheritance tax allowances, and a majority opposed the increases in National Insurance and VAT. Overall 53% of people thought the PBR had hurt them or their family, including 32% who thought it had done so unfairly.

The poll also showed the proportion of people thinking that the economy is in a bad state growing from 76% to 82% (and more strikingly, those thinking it was “very bad” grew from 28% to 40%).

While neither of the main political parties were seen to be telling the whole truth on the economy, or being fair on the whole, in both cases the Conservatives were seen as marginally less bad than Labour (Darling’s net honesty was -31, Osborne’s -12. Labour’s net fairness was -17, the Conservatives’ -11).

If this poll hadn’t had a voting intention question, I’d have looked at it and said that it showed the PBR had gone down horribly. In fact, Labour’s support went up four (or at least, they did with YouGov, ComRes’s poll painted a different picture). Hopefully we’ll have a somewhat clearer picture in the next few days when MORI and ICM turn up.


61 Responses to “More from YouGov’s Sunday Times poll”

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  1. @SURBITON
    “Roland: Your perspective is pretty accurate. Only your facts are wrong. I did not say Comres was a joke. I reserved that accolade for Angus Reid.”

    Yes, I do understand, the whole point of my comment was, perhaps the Tory highscores are correct and the Tory lower scores are wrong. You jumped to another conclusion with some
    glee, which is hardly non-partisan.

    As for my likes or dislikes on the matter, they are no concern of yours. Nor is your love affair with Labour any interest of mine.

    @OLD NAT
    Your figures are the correct ones, they correspond with Mike Smithson.

  2. @CHRIS
    I had no idea that Jordan/ Katie Price was a Tory.

  3. I meant to add, that on the fairness of Labour versus Conservative tax and spending plans, You Gov show a small Labour lead (31% to 27%,
    or -7% to -21% on Fair-Unfair). This may also be a contributory factor in the slight Labour improvement.

  4. Richard Whelan

    “Thanks for correcting me.”

    You can take the man out of teaching but ……. :-)

  5. I think there is an ICM poll about to come out:

    C 40 L 31 Lib 18

    Dont shout if I’m wrong but if I’m right, then it shows a narrowing of the gap by 2%. It seems to be the correct trend as opposed to 17% Con leads where some have posted that the gap is widening.

  6. Moderation note

    Several people have changed their screen names. If I think this is an attempt at sockpuppetting (running several identities to agree with yourself, deliberately mislead or generally bait and switch), I’ll block your comments.

    Please stick to consistent names (or at least, tell people you’re posting under a different name so I know you are not aiming to deceive). If nothing else, everytime you change your name the software thinks you are a new person and automatically puts you in moderation.

    (Oops, just for clarity, that isn’t aimed at Richard (Cheshire) who changed his screen name very, very slightly in a way that definitely wasn’t intended to confuse!)

  7. It took that long for that posting to come through, It’s old news!!! ;)

  8. @ Chris

    “partisan”

    No more than your assertion that “Labour can win it with just their core support. The tories certainly can’t.”

    Core vote, is presumably, those who’ll vote for Party X come what may. In which case, the lowest vote for Labour since Ramsey McDonald has been 1983 (27.6%) vs. the Tories’ 30.7% in 1997. Neither could win with that, and Labour’s is smaller.

    “no swing in council and euro”

    You should be quite aware of the irrelevance of Euro and council elections to the General Election. If you’re not convinced, I’d point out that the Tories have won every EU election since 1997, where Labour won in 1989 and 1994 during Tory rule. If anything, all these results tell you is who isn’t in power in Westminster right now.

    “c) highly questionable” (my point about regional swing)

    Firstly, core Labour seats are, by definition, lowest on the Tory target list. They don’t need these to win, much as Labour didn’t need Henley to win in 1997.

    Secondly, have you sat down and worked the regional values out, then put it into Martin Baxter’s predictor? I have. I do not make these statements on a whim.

    Etc. Etc. I am often partisan, but I find your claim to be some neutral arbiter hollow.

  9. The country taking longer than many to come out of recession may be a plus for labour as it reinforces how wrong the Tories were to pump for early cuts. Undoubtedly Cameron is a much better at PR than Brown. Recently Brown appears much more confident on TV. His comments on Afghanistan and other non economic matters are more detailed and informed in contrast to Camerons. The bonus tax has hit well with the public. If the GDP growth is positive in January I would expect the small shift in the polls to labour to continue for a while. It takes a real drama to make a step change shift in opinion. Once a trend is established it is difficult to stop it. The real quaetion is what is happening in the marginals and are floating voters reaching soild ground

  10. Simon:

    33

  11. Chris:

    You should either exclude Scotland or treat it separately.

    The contest in Scotland is between SNP and Labour and the press led by The Scotsman are not so much pro-Labour as anti-SNP.

    Meanwhile the SNP government aims to impress voters and is dealing with a huge number of neglected issues usually of little relevance or interest to urban populations or the press. Only one of these initiatives can bring them many votes and some are controversial but there are a huge number of such issues.

    People get their information from many sources other than the national newspapers, not least industry journals.

    4% of people in employment are in the NHS. There must be far more who pass through a hospital in the course of a year. East coast fishing communities are already solidly behind the SNP because of their CFP policy. Even if people have reservations, they credit the SNP with taking a serious interest.

    Do you know anyone trained in sales or marketing? If so ask them about bad-mouthing a competitor.

    The Labour party in Scotland must have hundreds of members who have sales training, but to the party members and press a political party is more akin to a football team than an organisation bidding for a five-year contract to manage the country. Thus the supporters are more interested in whether their team can attack the opposing team than actually score a goal, and if the team has a bad season, they sack the manager.

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