There is a new AngusReid poll for politicalbetting.. The topline figures, with changes from their previous poll, are CON 40%(+1), LAB 23%(+1), LDEM 19%(-2), Others 18%.

It was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, and according to Mike about a third of it was conducted after the PBR. In practice that means this won’t really show any PBR effect, since a fair proportion of that third of the sample wouldn’t have seen the PBR anyway, and very few would have digested the media response.

The trend is clearly one of no change. All the polling companies but Angus Reid are now showing a narrowing of the Tory lead, and there is an increasingly sharp contrast between the level of Labour support they are picking up and that of other companies. As I’ve said before, part of this will be their weighting figures (AngusReid weight to actual 2005 shares of the vote, rather than shares adjusted to account for false recall) and part will be down to a higher level of support for others (which I can see no obvious methodological explanation for). They should, however, be showing the same overall trend.

Andrew Hawkins of ComRes has implied on his twitter feed that we’ll also be getting something from them tonight, though I don’t know if there’s really been time for a post PBR voting intention poll.

106 Responses to “AngusReid still have the Tory lead at 17”

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  1. @Lin,

    The “seat” in Weymouth was not a traditional Tory seat. In fact its a ward that Labour won in 2007 and is in a marginal parliamentary constituency. Still a good win for Labour, but you may be being swayed by the notion that Dorset is somehow rock-solid Tory heartland when much of it is not.

    Britain’s seaside towns have large populations (infestations some might say) of benefit claimants.

  2. The local by-election results are indeed showing a very clear recent shift.

    The Conservatives are showing a clear drop in support, Labour is improving just about everywhere and the Lib Dems are showing a definite rise, particularly noticeable in the SW seats which many assume will be lost to the Conservatives (largely on the evidence of the “local” County Council elections!).

    Whilst I do not hold the view that local results necessarily have a direct relation to the way people vote in a General Election in any seat, when viewed over a parliamentary cycle, they give a view to the way public opinion is moving. I were still a Tory, I’d just be beginning to get slightly anxious. This election is still wide open.

  3. The amount of ‘straw clutching’ by GB/Labour supporters is breathtaking but I suppose they have to really when almost everything (at the moment that is) is still pointing to a substantial Conservative Majority but perhaps not the Landslide many had a first thought.
    We must really wait for a couple of more ‘normal’ Polls over the next week or so to see what if any shifts in public opionion really is!

  4. Mark Johnson: I’m not A GB/Lab supporter – anything but!!

    At my local club, out of about 20 of my fellow members who I know vote Conservative, 4 (formerly all staunch Conservatives like me) have decided to switch. 2 are going UKIP in protest at the Tory stance on Lisbon, 1 is going to the Lib Dems because he thinks Vince Cable should be running the economy, and regrettably, 1 is going to vote BNP because he’s been made redundant and is a bit dense. All are voters in a Lib Dem/Conservative marginal seat.

    So if formerly loyal voters are thinking again, I think the recent general poll trend that the Tory bubble is bursting somewhat is correct – the question is now “small majority or hung parliament”. On current trends, the latter is looking more likely, but the Conservatives might regain the initiative if they can make a convincing case that they can handle the economy better than Darling, which shouldn’t be difficult but hitherto has been beyond them.

    Don’t just trust the polls – there’s a lot more peripheral evidence as to what is going on.

  5. King Harold

    A Con MSP has recently welcomed the new Education Secretary in terms that will have embarrased him. This was on the strength of proposals on a joint authored book published several years ago.

    As I recall there was something about choice and vouchers in education.

    It remains to be seen what, if anything, will be done for choice is not an practical issue outside the central belt.

    The opportunity to do deals with or without coalition is potentially there, and would be for Labour too were it not for their many other problems.

  6. Others are better placed to say how right or left the SNP is but I would suggest it probably reflects the balance of Scotalnd as a whole.

    If someone were to claim that on such and such an issue Scottish Cons were to the left of English NewLabour I would be disinclined to argue and they are, or have been, either to the left of English Cons or a lot more feart.

    The SNP USP is pragmatism and competence. They arn’t going to first decide on the policy objective (eg Education Vouchers) introduce it ignoring objections and then spend years trying to make it work. They arn’t interested in that sort of dogma driven government.

    Since the day after the Referendum it has been clear that as AS said shortly afterwards that “oppositions have a way of becoming governments.” Now in government, they will never again be regarded as an unelectable fringe party of impractical romantics incapable of forming a government. That was what they were 50 years ago.

    They must now for four years do everything possible to avoid making mistakes, and deal with as many as possible minor issues that have been ignored. Christian Schmidt on these pages described it as “bog standard competent government and a few minor gimmicks” and SNP ministers are working very hard on dozens of popular and non-controversial issues, most of them only of relevance in rural areas. They are making great efforts no doubt at the cost of relationships or health for some.

    This month’s lead story in “The Farmer” is an example.

    It’s not about the billions of pounds for the banks, but £217,000 for farmers markets. That will as producers, employees or customers affect 217,000 or more citizens and it isn’t likely to change many votes, but it is only one of hundreds of initiatives and most of them will persuade voters that here we have a government concerned with what it may achieve.

    If the electorate is impressed with what the SNP government has done with a majority of one over the next largest party, they may give them a bigger majority next time.

    The objective is to persuade voters to trust the SNP with independence. Government is what they do to try to impress voters.

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