In those constituencies an active Labour attempt to reconnect with constituents, the council clearing up rubbish and some tough talk on immigration with sufficient wiggle room not to driveaway middle class liberals might work. The BNP vote would remain high in those constituencies, but it could certainly fall.

However, the BNP stand in a lot of places where they have no chance of remaining their deposits. And people who vote BNP in marginal and non-economically depressed seats are just racists and aren’t likely to ever vote Labour again.

As for UKIP, there’s little chance. They get some Labour support in Euro elections and they will have an appeal in areas like Norfolk, but Farage and co. are definitely targetting upper-middle class Tory voters in the shires, so I doubt they’re currently attracting any notable Labour support. They might help Labour hold Waveney if things tighten and they run hard there, but otherwise they hold no comfort for us.

However, the Greens are the big one here. If Copenhagen is a success, or if it’s a failure but Brown is perceived to have done everything he possibly can, or if Heathrow expansion is quietly shelved, or if the Tories look to consolidate their base and business, I could see a lot of Green voters reluctantly moving our way.

Sample was 32,000

Included were 4200 Lib Dems-42% of whom said that “if they had to choose” they would prefer a Cameron Government to a Brown one. 34% said they would prefer a Labour Government.

Peter.